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CubinNY

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Everything posted by CubinNY

  1. CubinNY
    Hype and more hype. With the variabliity of the scouting reports I am going to go with caution. He's 22 and his growth as a baseball player has been [expletive] for four years. He can't get those years back. No amount of athleticism or quick learning will get them back. Even at ND his numbers (besides wins) weren't all that spectacular. Most people blame football, but I don't know if that's the case at all. I'm hoping the hype is justified, but I wouldn't bet on it. Playing college baseball is not "retarding progress". I could also spin this and say he hasn't thrown as much as other prospects have, giving him a fresher arm. He hasn't played college baseball full time. He's split time between football and baseball. From all indications, he has a decent fastball and not much else. Not many college pitchers are that highly regarded with only one pitch, as craig pointed out. A fresh arm? We don't know how his arm will hold up in a full season of professional baseball.
  2. CubinNY
    Hype and more hype. With the variabliity of the scouting reports I am going to go with caution. He's 22 and his growth as a baseball player has been [expletive] for four years. He can't get those years back. No amount of athleticism or quick learning will get them back. Even at ND his numbers (besides wins) weren't all that spectacular. Most people blame football, but I don't know if that's the case at all. I'm hoping the hype is justified, but I wouldn't bet on it.
  3. CubinNY
    Blasphemer! No it's not!
  4. CubinNY
    What the hell does "throwing with confidence mean"? If he's healthy he will pitch regularly. If he's not he won't. Confidence is an outcome of pitching well and lack of such is an outcome of not performing well. .
  5. CubinNY
    What does "better" mean? and how much is "much". According to the data they weren't more efficient.
  6. CubinNY
    Then what do you base your opinon on, their astrological signs?
  7. CubinNY
    I wish they switch the the early 1900s uniform.
  8. CubinNY
    This is a unique perspective from the cubs... I was waiting for someone to bring this up. Also, what can be said for the Cubs pitchers' assumed continued reliance on strikeouts - due to our also assumed crappy defense? I don't think they have much control over that. Some guys are strikeout pitchers. Strikeouts are a good thing but they can create high pitch counts. It's all about being efficient. I think it is better for a pitcher to go after the batter rather than nibble at the zone, that's when you get high pitch counts and walks. It's all about being effective within the strike zone. The Cubs defense isn't crappy.
  9. CubinNY
    I was thinking the same thing.
  10. CubinNY
    Yes. ESPN just ranked them in the top 10 becuase of Hughes and Tabata. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2742549
  11. CubinNY
    fangraphs.com is possible the greatest place for information about professional baseball known to man. Here is a comparison of Cliff Floyd and Matt Murton. http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=6307&playerid2=518&playerid3=&position=OF&page=8&type=full
  12. CubinNY
    Which is why I didn't do it in the first place. To look at the trend you don't need to use the least square method or statistics. It is the wrong tool for the job in this case. The point I orginally made was that the Cubs are right where they were 10 years ago. They have gone nowhere.
  13. CubinNY
    I wonder how much of Helton's salary Boston will be taking?
  14. CubinNY
    I wonder if he factored in the trades that can be made with an over-hyped prospect? Or someone like Dontrell Willis who wasn't that highly rated. Free agency and the Rule 5 draft have changed baseball a lot since the 1970s and 1980s. Teams like the Dodgers use to stockpile prospects while teams like the Yankees use to just buy them for cash when they were ready.
  15. CubinNY
    Debunking the point was enough. No need for this. Noted. I will attempt more civilitiy, but "don't spoil it for him" kind of got to me.
  16. CubinNY
    Thank you. And it is worse if you want to say Hendry started in 2003. The key point which all of you are forgetting here is the correlation. For that data, the R^2 value is 0.0249 and the R value is -0.1578. Those low values show there is a very little linear relationship for the data provided. Don't spoil this for him. We are not talking about corelations. The data are for years and wins. That is the data set. The reason why their isn't a linear relationship is because the Cubs didn't win more games every year. As the years go up the wins must go up to have a linear relationship. Analyzing trends has nothing to do with corelations though. Correlations have to do with things like runs scored and wins or runs allowed and wins. Time is not an independent variable unless one is talking about human development over the life span. RichHillisaBeast you never have a clue. Not even a hint of one any time you post in a thread.
  17. CubinNY
    This is the type of thing you do every freaking time you try to defend Hendry and the Cubs. Anyone can play the "if" game. It doesn't change history.
  18. CubinNY
    Good analysis. I agree. I have long had differences with those who argue that the manager is a huge influence on won/loss record. While there are some exceptions (Bobby Cox comes immediately to mind) the fact is that rarely does a manager really have a huge "positive" impact on a team that can't be explained any other way. Baker came in and got outstanding seasons out of Wood, Prior. A rejuvenated season out of Karros, Grudzielanek, Lofton, Borowski. An .800 OPS from AGonz...In short lots of things broke right for him and he was hailed as a genious. He was the same Dusty in 04-06 and gained VERY different results. Similar things happened with Leyland in DET. We'll see how good he is over the next couple of years. I agree as well. I am hoping the Lou will be a results oriented manager. Dusty seemed to a philosophical oriented manager.
  19. CubinNY
    a .333 average is only good in baseball. He completely minimizes Hendry's mistakes and takes every opportunity to makes excuses for what otherwise has been mediocre management. The Cubs are right where they were 10 years ago.
  20. CubinNY
    I don't know if this has been mentioned or not but I assume Jocque Jones will not be with the team by the start of the season. [speculation] I believe that Hendry & Co. are banking on Pie filling either CF or RF and using some sort of platoon with Floyd and Murton. If Pie struggles the Cubs will probably use Pagen in CF and move Soriano to RF (if he is not there already). [/speculation] I don't have a clue as to whom they would trade Jocque for, probably a mid-level AA pitcher of some sort and PTBL. Pennies on the dollar.
  21. CubinNY
    So the Cubs were 4 games over .500 when Lee got hurt and Ramirez was horrible along with Jones and Pierre. Lee got hurt on April 19th. On May 1st, they were still 4 games over .500. With your logic (and small sample size), I suppose we can assume that if Ramirez, Jones and Pierre continued sucking and Lee never came back, they should have finished the season 4 games over .500 since they were able to maintain a 4 game advantage after the Lee injury. The Cubs have had their share of fluke injures (Lee, Prior x2) but good teams overcome injuries all the time becuase they are built to do it. End of the story. I am hoping that is what Floyd is, an injury insurance policy. My bet is he is the starting LFer becuase the Cubs want a left handed HR threat in the order. Floyd is a steaky hitter and when he is hot he is smoking. When he's cold he's Neifi like without the contact. I don't want to see Murton platooned, but we'll have to wait and see what happens.
  22. CubinNY
    Thank you. And it is worse if you want to say Hendry started in 2003.
  23. CubinNY
    I didn't bother to do a linear regression (most primitive form of trend line), but it's not a straight line with 0 slope. You don't just draw a horizontal line at the average value and call it a trend line. Once again you have no idea what you are talking about. Four data points make a trend. Any four. Obviously, the more data one has the better one can make predictions. However, when looking at any set of data it is possible to look at the trend. One method is called a split-middle trend line. Leaner regression has nothing to do with it. Regression is a measure of central tendency. A trend shows the overall path of any data set and has very little to do with the mean. I discussed the mean in the four years prior to Hendry and the four years since Hendry took over as just more evidence that this team has gone nowhere. http://www.specialconnections.ku.edu/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/specconn/main.php?cat=assessment&section=main&subsection=cbm/usingdata Here is one of the dozens of studies that detail the use of a split middle trend line. http://eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/Home.portal?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=RecordDetails&ERICExtSearch_SearchValue_0=EJ450911&ERICExtSearch_SearchType_0=eric_accno&objectId=0900000b80032c69 Edit: Admittedly using a split-middle trend line is a bit of a rough estimate. So I just graphed the years since 1998 and using a least squared method the slope of the trend is -.02 (FLAT). From 1998 to 2002 the trend was -2.5. From 2003 to 2006 the trend was -7.6. Anyway you cut it the Cubs are going in the wrong direction
  24. CubinNY
    But what if you dont believe that this happened, much less is possible? It always bothers me when people say something like this. It doesnt matter if you dont believe it, it offends the people that do believe it, which there are 2 billion of. Oh, but it does. I'm going to guess that there are a lot of things you do on a day-to-day basis that would offend a follower of Islam, which has almost 2 billion members as well. Are you going to cut out all of that? Why not? Excuse me for being late to the party, but would someone mind explaining to me what this has to do with the Floyd signing? Someone had the balls to write Jesus in this thread. I think it was Rocketsause but I am blaming it on CT.
  25. CubinNY
    The status que of pre and post Hendry is as much an indictment of Hendry's tenure as any I can think of. In four years the team has gone nowhere. The overall trend is flat. peaking and then dipping into a valley is "flat?" Yes. If you plot the number of wins the Cubs have achieved since Hendry took over and draw a line down the middle (known in science as a trend line) the line would be flat. The team has averaged 78 wins per season. In four years the Cubs have a losing record. In the four years before Hendry took over the Cubs average 77.5 wins. That is a flat trend 89 88 79 ------------------------ 67 66 Hendry wins/year 66/2006 79/2005 89/2004 88/2003 67/2002 Pre Hendry wins/year 88/2001 65/2000 67/1999 90/1998 That's not how you draw a trend line. :wink: Yes that is how you draw a trend line. Peaks and Valley don't matter when you are looking a long(er) term data. What is the wink for?
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