I like how you use true talent like it's an entity that exists. In life, at the end of the day you are the collection of behaviors you have emitted for that day, your potential to emit other behaviors is irrelevant. What you are talking about is what is expected vs what occurred. The statistical stuff is correct, but the rest is nonsense. There is no such a thing as "true talent". If the model doesn't map on to reality, it's the model that's off, not reality. You can't just chalk it up to variance and wash your hands.
Baseball is not like flipping a coin.
As an aside, these supposedly intelligent people should include confidence intervals on their predictions to account for variance instead of pretending they have a level of precision they do not have.