KingKongvs.Godzilla

I would actually rather dangle Z to the Dodgers for a nice little package. Theres a rumor going around that the Tigers might trade Bonderman for a 1B (I think its BS but why not dream). Lee is by far our best player, but to get a young stud pitcher still growing up (he's also a K and groundball pitcher) for him would be huge. Leyland seems to heavily underrate Bonderman, and it's been showing all postseason long (he's the last in line). After that dangle Z for Drew, Billingsley/Broxton/Elbert, and Loney. Z has too many red flags for me to say "You're the guy to build around." Do that with a nice little core forming in my dream world containing a Bonderman, a healthy Prior, and one of those 3 Dodger stud pitching prospects.

our system sucks. To tell you the truth I'm not so sure Pie could fit himself into that list. I'm just not a Pie fan. He's sooo raw right now it's ridiculous and alot of those guys are way more polished, younger, and have just as much if not more upside.

Isn't a pitcher's prime a little later than a hitter's? Yep. And Lily has damn good stuff too. Good fastball, great curve (it's similar to Zito's), good slider that used to be his out pitch. Left handed, in the prime of a pitchers career (which is usually later than a hitters), and cheaper than the highly overrated Zito. Still, nah. We have a few young guys I'd like to see get time again like Guzman and Marshall.

I was sarcastic about ARod, read my thoghts on ARod/Jeter on mlbcenter or I think this site. I am far from an ARod hater. And I can name a few pitchers Z is not better than. I am on the Z-could-net- us-alot-and-we-should-try-to-get-it bandwagon. He is far from perfect, with his control, workload, and back problems being major red flags going foward in his 26-32 years. Also agree on ARod being underrated here. The guy was/is one of the top 2 players in baseball (depending on how much you like Pujols). As a SS there is no one better in the game. Period.

What do you think the Nationals would ask for Kearns? He's a damn nice player to have right now, finally growing into the player everyone thought he would be. Bowden loves athletic guys. And we could net a CFer with the Nationals too (they seem to hate Ryan Church). Trading for either one would help our OF because both are excellent defensive players and good hitters who haven't gotten a chance before for whatever reason.

I would love, love, love ARod on this team. I just don't see why the Cubs should have to give up a guy three years younger who is about as good to get him. ARod is significantly better than any player on the Cubs roster right now. Bar none. Not when it comes time in October. He's unclutch, its a fact of life, and Derek Jeter couldn't even save him.

In Pavano's one and only good season, the only thing about him that changed was his HR rate and his H/9 went WAY down. The HR rate was a good thing, but keep in mind he was pitching in one of the best pitchers parks in the NL. Actually his command got slightly better, but the thing is he had never stayed healthy before that, he suddenly got less hittable, and he was in a major pitchers park. Now he went to the Yankees in the AL, his hit rate went back to Pavano levels, his control was excellent, but he started giving up HRs again. He probably would be a solid 4 or 5 guy though.

Like alot of people, I like Trammel. He just was not ready to manage the Tigers before, and to make it worse they were a crappy team anyway. Think he could be a very big help.

Yea...I'm far from a non-Beane fan. It was meant to be tongue in cheek, from every other post I've ever made on this board I would hope that would be obvious.

What if the Angels came after us with an offer of Kendrick, Mathis, Adenhart, AND Santana? Would you not give up Z for that kind of monster package? Besides for the fact that I'm not a big Santana fan, thats a deal that could become big deals (like Santana for blank). What if the Mets offered Mike Pelfrey/Milledge, and more? I wouldn't do that, but its an idea. What if the Dodgers came and just shoved prospects down our throats. Say a Laroche, Billingsley, Betemit package? Maybe I'm just having a pipedream, but all those guys deals would be huge for pushing the Cubs foward (well maybe not the Mets one). Theres still other ones out there that could potentially bigger. I know trading Z will never happen because the Cubs are just not ballsy enough to piss everyone off. Still, if the right deal came around Hendry should be listening because this team has a ton of holes and trading Z just might fill a few of them. Could you imagine getting a future IF from the Dodgers or Angels? What if the Diamondbacks came with a package like Quentin, Young, Owings/Nipper, and Mock? I'm not completely for trading Z, but the evidence is mostly on the "he will be injured/performance will fall" side. His value is SKY HIGH right now.

Thats true, but he's not going to get a HUGE contract simply because he's going to be like...what?...31? 32? Tops he should get a 3 year contract. And Pie is trade bait IMO. Bad plate discipline, bad baserunner, still more a potential guy than a baseball player. He's highly regarded and since he just had a decent season in AAA at 21 he could help net us something good. The Diamondbacks seem to favor Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez over Chris Young, and Gonzalez could be ready by '08. This is way in advance of when it should be talked about, but if/when Young gets on the trading block I want the Cubs to pounce. Thats if Pie doesn't magically get good or we don't find something in CF.

Well about the A's, back when Zito was good and Mulder and Hudson were healthy (and good) they were pretty friggin economical. The only one who gave any worry about pitch counts was Zito, the A's are pretty damn careful when it comes to taking care of their pitchers. I hate to say it but I already have in this thread... It's true. Zambrano is the guy with the highest value on the team, is also a guy looking for a future pay day, is young and tradable, AND we have good reason to think his performance may fall off sooner or later. Theres alot of evidence Z's performance will fall. Why not get what we can? Just the other day John Kruk said he was one of the top 3 pitchers in the NL, he's an idiot, but you get an idea of how highly the guy is viewed. Meanwhile, he's a high walk, high effort, young pitcher who has been overworked, has horrible mechanics, and I'll throw in that he gains weight pretty damn easily. Why not trade him for a Cabrera? Or a package of Howie Kendrick and young guys from the Angels? You could get alot for Z, and its not a bad time to sell high with him. It's harsh but we should be building for the next 5-10 years not just next year. He could be a part of those years, but he would net us a TON, and theres reason to believe that he will never be more highly valued.

Why are the people in the camp where all the prove is at (that pitchers who throw high amounts of pitches usually get hurt) TheDude, the job is for you to prove what has already been given an extraordinary amount of evidence for. There have been studies that say more pitches at young age = BAD. Where is your proof that Z is immune to it? That a pitcher who from age like...22 to 25 has AVERAGED 110 pitches per start will be OK? Worse...the pitcher throws hard but does it with poor mechanics, and gains weight easily is fine for the future? Where is your proof for any of this? Simply because it hasn't happen it won't happen? How will you react if it does happen? Will you complain about his high pitch counts and other worries then? Or simply say its the nature of the game - guys come and go? I love Z. I think the guy is exactly what a team like the Cubs need right now (besides a healthy Mark Prior). But ignoring his major problems when his big pay day is coming up cannot be done anymore. He's 26 and his percieved (and actual) value is very high, if anything he is the most perfect sell high candidate on the whole team.

Actually thats my problem, I have alot of time for this and only started doing anything for it when I wrote that post. My thesis will be something about how sabermetrics is a natural positive growth in the sport that if taken advantage of can help any team. It's a fairly simple essay, mostly the basics.

The threat of injury doesn't disappear after you've pitched for a couple seasons. Nor does it magically appear due to pitch counts that have been consistant across numerous years. Yes, those pitch counts have been consistent but doesn't the fact that they have been consistently BAD for a young pitcher mean anything? Do you really think that if someone is stressing one part of their body as much as Z does will be fine for 10-12 years? He throws hard, has crappy mechanics, and even though he came into this year looking good he gains weight easy, and can't control his stuff. I hit a nerve with alot of people by bringing Z's flaws, but they cannot be ignored simply because he gives the fans something positive to talk about. People say Livan Hernandez could take anything, but he's breaking down and has been losing effectiveness for a while. There was a time when Hernandez had pretty nasty stuff...now his fastball is mediocre at best and he's a back of the rotation innings eater.

looking for opinions on everything from pitch counts, to prospect analysis to anything. I wanna make this paper as good as I can and want as many sources as I can. Need help, anything related appreciated.

elbow pain, back pain, and so on are not reasons to worry? No. Unlike some other Cubs pitchers...cough, cough,...Z knows how to pitch through this pain and be effective. Yes, and you expect that to last a lifetime? Even if you trust that that will happen, don't you think injuries will effect his stuff therefore his effectiveness? This is a step by step logical process, examine it and you'll see alot more than "if it hasn't happened yet then it won't/can't happen." Walks >> High pitch counts >> Risk for injury rises >>> Injury occurs (whether its next year, the year after, or five years later) >>> Injury affects performance We wanna pay him big money we better stop being [expletive] with him. And he better learn to control himself and his stuff.

Exacty. There is a ton to like about Z, I listed those above. But his flaws are great and can lead to very bad things in the future. Poor control is a problem for now AND the future. Back problems are a problem for now AND the future. Random elbow pain is problematic for now AND the future. And he's going to get paid ALOT next year. He is nowhere near perfect, he is young, fiery, tough, and any all ballsy adjective we can think of. Still he's going to get paid like an ace but how long can he keep looking like one?

You heard your stories wrong. Maddux never threw that hard and he's never had the movement that Z has. Oh, thanks for that scientific facts. BTW, these aren't just stories. Maddux was in his prime as late as 2000 and I'm sure everyone saw him. Those stories are not false, if anything Maddux had even more disgusting movement on his fastball than Z (that 2 seamer that locked up lefties, the changeup...), he just controlled it more. And its talked about more than ever about how Maddux would reach back once in a while and hit 95. He probably could have thrown much harder consistently if the movement and control weren't optimal at 89-93.

So walks, elbow pain, back pain, and so on are not reasons to worry? What does he have to do to worry people?

Yep, exactly why he is thought of so highly here and anywhere Cubs fans live. He is young, nasty, and produces, unlike the rest of the franchise. For that he gets a free pass when it comes to his flaws, but we have to start taking note of them because he's in for a monster pay day soon. While thats true, its not an excuse. Maddux had nasty, sick movement in his prime. He controlled it. He didn't throw as hard, but I've heard stories of Maddux dialing it up to 93 and even 95 a few times in his prime. His velocity in his youth is very underrated.

Actually, I would consider it. Not for ARod, I really want ARod but I would rather do a Z for like...say...Miguel Cabrera or something. I really want ARod on this team, and two seconds before I made this post I would have said yes. But Z is valued very highly in baseball (I'm actually not a big Z fan), and he can get a much younger, cheaper player. You aren't going to get as good a player as ARod in his prime, but ARod is not getting any younger and thats what stops me.

Z is our best pitcher by far right now, but that does not mean he is flawless. He is charismatic, he is a friggin bull, he's young, he's got great stuff...but he has alot of flaws. One thing we worry about is his pitch counts. He's shown he can handle them and will be 26 next year and finally (still I worry) out of the typical injury nexus for a young pitcher. He averaged 110 pitches per start, and alot of the time was out there in the 8th/9th unnecessarily. One thing that is both a result and a cause of that, he walks a TON of guys. He has worse control than Wood did when he was healthy, and he puts ALOT of guys on base for free because of that. He walked 115 guys in 215, thats almost 5 guys per 9. Thats disturbingly high for a future ace, and like we saw in Wood it jumped his pitch counts, put strain on his arm, and only because of his raw stuff did he remain a very good starting pitcher. Z's control has gone down the drain, and his fly ball rate is heading up. His HR rate is staying decent, but this is not the improvements I like to see in my young pitcher. I'm hoping Z stays healthy and pitches like this his whole career, but I have never considered myself the fan who sees Z as an automatic win. After a starter I'll check his line and this year there was a whole lot of 8 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 8 K's, 4-6 BBs. A guy who consistently gets himself into and out of trouble is good, but eventually those guys see their luck run out.

Interesting read, sucks that I can't afford to read it. And it's not like Beane knows anything anyway. He thinks a WALK is better than a HOME RUN. What a loser. His teams are chokers too.

Mark Prior's 2003 is better than Sheets' 2004. OK? Prior was also absolutely dominant when he was healthy. Mark Prior's best season > Sheets', but not by a ton anyway. Plus, Sheets showed this year when he pitched that he is still dominant, he had a great K rate, his best BB/9, and HR/9. He's still a damn good pitcher. Sucks that the guy went from being so durable to injury probelms fast. He averaged like 220 IP up until 2005.