never too early to start looking.... Through the end of may: In the Monte Carlo simulation, the Cubs are 69.5% to win the division, 10.7% to win the wild card, for an 80.2% chance of making the playoffs. The Cubs have an average record of 94.2-67.8, which is 1.3 wins better than the Red Sox for the best record in baseball. The Elo odds: 64% to win the division, 12.5% to win the wild card, for 76.5% to make the playoffs. Again, 1.3 wins better than the Red Sox, with an average record of 93.5-68.5. PECOTA-simulated odds: 73.9% to win the division, 10.6% to win the wild card, 84.4% to make the playoffs. 95.6-66.4, or nearly 3 wins better than PECOTA's next-favorite team, the Yankees. Since we're all becoming bandwagon Devil Ray fans as well: Monte Carlo: 37.95480% division, 27.45680% wild card, 65.41161% playoffs (avg record 92.5-69.5) Elo: 20.46138% division, 19.02389% wild card, 39.48527% playoffs (avg record 87.2-74.8) PECOTA: 25.45384% division, 27.09392% wild card, 52.54776% playoffs (avg record 91-71)