TruffleShuffle

btw, if anyone has paid attention to my presence on this board over the past couple of years, you would've noticed that i'm far from a cubs' kool-aid drinker. in fact, i tend to be quite pessimistic with this team. so what's it say that i feel very confident about their ability to at least make the playoffs? draw your own conclusions there.

Nor were the Mets concerned with the Phillies in late September. Anyone can make a run, and anyone can have a bit of down spell. Pretty much everyone is still alive, except the Pirates (and probably the Reds) EDIT: Whoa, and probably the Astros too, I hadn't seen how far down teh standings they've fallen. that's because the mets' chance of missing the playoffs was very small. they had an epic collapse, mostly due to terrible luck and in small part due to the fact that willie randolph is a lousy manager. the cubs are as good as their record. the offense is legitimately excellent, as is the bullpen, and the starting pitching is solid. if anything is likely to fall off, it's the performance of the #2 starter (to this point, dempster). but i've seen suggestions on other websites that the cubs are likely to fade, and this simply isn't the case. the cubs are one of the best teams in baseball, if not the best, and their play to this point in the season has reflected the caliber of team that they have.

howry may be declining slightly due to age, but his biggest problem is bad luck. here's his LD/GB/FB tendencies... note last year versus this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=237&position=P&page=9&type=full last year versus this year - basically identical. his LOB% was above the league norm the last 2 years, and is at the norm this year, which is a contributor to his sub-par performance this year. given marmol's phenomenal peripherals the last 2 years, i think it'd be almost impossible to argue that someone other than him is the cubs' best reliever. kerry's numbers were fairly middling the last 2 years, but given his stuff - a fastball that has returned to the mid-90s, and command which has proven to be much more solid than in his previous lives as a starter/reliever - one would expect that he's the cubs' second best reliever. so if howry's luck normalizes, he's the cubs' third-best reliever. that's a nice "problem" to have. especially if eyre pitches very well against LH batters and wuertz continues to be what he's been the past 2-3 years. if they stay healthy, i feel confident in saying that the cubs' bullpen will be a definite strength heading into the playoffs.

the weird thing is that tiger is basically unbeatable in majors when ahead going into the final round, but doesn't win when he's behind. i think there's a fair amount of flukiness on either side - he probably could've lost a couple of tourneys when going in ahead and probably was could've won a few tourneys when going into the final round a shot or two behind - but that's just been the trend with him. that putt on 13 was a great putt in that it was in the vicinity of the hole, but if it's more than a couple of inches left or right of the line that it traveled, it's heading 10 or 15 feet past and he's lucky to make birdie. on 17, if that chip doesn't hop into the hole, he's probably several feet past the hole. i suppose that's part of what makes him great though, he is just that talented, where he gives himself a chance to make shots like that. he has a lot better likelihood of going eagle-birdie-eagle on those three holes than anyone else on the planet. hopefully it will be an interesting final round. i think part of the reason i never liked tiger was that he made a lot of big tournaments boring by how dominant he was, and i always wanted mickelson to win a major because i knew he was a great player suffering from some tough luck. now that i'm a little older and a little smarter, i've grown to appreciate the fact that tiger is the best golfer who's ever lived, even if i'm not a huge fan of him.

??? i just watched both replays and they were normal home runs (i.e. over the fence)

And yet he's projected to start the All Star game. He's Ryan Theriot with Red Sox hype added not really. he's more like mark derosa the last two years, or todd walker with a better glove. he's been unlucky on batted balls this year.

HE IS NOT A CLUTCH HITTER.

huh... i thought the toe tap was a new invention. shows what i know. musial had quite the stride into that pitch.... his stance started off very narrow but it looks like the used that front leg to get a lot of his power.

where's the patience in the 15th inning? losers.

that's the thing - lou considers everything to be a disaster. after the bases became loaded, the blue jays' chance of winning the game was 7.1%. i'm well aware that marmol is the best pitcher in that spot, but lou seems to think that the only way to get out of that situation is to use marmol. pretty much any guy in the bullpen is likely to get out of that spot with the cubs still a heavy favorite to win the ballgame. sometimes you have to trust people other than your best pitcher to get outs.

cards did a nice job running their way out of that inning

the cards seem to have the babip fairy back on their side for this one

wow on mays... those are some hops musial's stance is really bizarre... if i saw someone come to the plate looking like that, i'd laugh... until i saw the results anyway.

and we have a loser

we have a winner

Well I think thats a tad reactionary, Howry definitely isn't going to be a great reliever for us this year. Oh well, you're not going to have a bunch of aces in your pen, its just not going to happen. only a tad?

Totally unrelated I see your point, but its pretty much a given Howry is more hittable than Marmol. almost every reliever in baseball is more hittable than marmol. nobody is arguing that marmol isn't great, and everyone understands why lou wants to use him all the time, but if you put marmol into the game every time the cubs get into a little trouble, his arm will fall off by september.

agreed... by signing now, they will get to play a full summer of short-season ball, which will accelerate the failure process and allow us fans to divert our attention to failures in the 2009 draft and beyond.

are you serious? they're trying way too hard to prove they're The Best Fans in Baseball.

looks like vance got the full experience of the tennessee offense today.

i think a player can go from dh to the field. who knows, i never bothered learning the ins and outs of that rule because it sucks.

Reed But then who plays 1B if we get to the bottom of 9? lee

well, see you in a couple of weeks wuertz.

total trash? they'll be 3 under .500 if they lose this.

everyone who makes the wrong read at the plate is an idiot.