he's also 36, declining, and has a huge contract. the enormous drop in k's this season is pretty telling also. as for the "stays healthy, eats a lot of innings and gets a lot of ground balls", well, you don't pay 15 million a year for that for a guy under contract until age 39. you could say those same things about crappy pitchers anyways, like jason marquis. either way, i don't see how you can possible make the argument that he's "really good" when you consider his age and the season he's having. he'd have to bounce back in a huge way next season for that, and at age 36 he's much more likely to continue this decline than turn it around. you're drawing conclusions off of one year of data, much of which is influenced by an anomalously-high babip. in 2008 he had his best k/bb and fip since he was closing games for the red sox in 2000; it would have been as silly to say that he's improving last year as it is to say he's declining and is likely to keep declining based off a down year following his best year as a starter. as for the "enormous" drop in his k-rate, it's gone down by 1 per 9 innings which is not enormous, and it's basically the same as his k-rate in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006. the bigger concern is his GB/FB ratio, which has gotten worse each of the last two years.