TruffleShuffle

Thanks for the compliment :o Anyway, I will go somewhat off stats and somewhat off of what I saw last night. He has improved in some categories this year, like HR/9IP, K/BB, and GB/FB. Still there are concerns. His BAA is easily the highest of any season in his career, and his OPS against is only slightly better than last season. His expected W-L record suggests he's the second luckiest pitcher in baseball this year, so don't let that 12-5 record fool you. His K rate is as low as it was last year, which doesn't bode well. I think he's definitely a talented pitcher who was never really a #1 like he was being paid, but could have been a solid #2. I don't know that he has that kind of stuff any more. His breaking ball really flattened out a few times, and he was fortunately to have not given up two more runs on that hanger he threw to Lee. I'm not sure if the reports of his fastball sitting 91-94 mph were wrong or if he's lost velocity from when he returned from the DL, but either way, his stuff didn't look all that good to me. He could end up the rest of his career being kind of like the Greg Maddux we see today... a guy who is acceptible as a starter because he doesn't walk many people, but is too hittable to be considered anything better than a #3/4 starter.

Clemens has had 7 starts where he's gotten zero runs of run support, meaning it's been impossible for him to win those games. He's also had 4 games where the bullpen blew a lead after he left the game, thereby costing him a win. I sat down and looked at what Clemens' record would be if he had the run support that Carpenter had in each of his games, and it looks like Clemens' record would be about 19-1 right now. Also, the Baseball Prospectus Expected W-L records are: Carp: 14.0-5.5 (Luck=+4.5) Clemens: 14.0-3.3 (Luck=-3.6) Clemens' low expected win total was a bit surprising to me, but otherwise the stat turned out like I anticipated. Clemens has been very unlucky this year, while Carpenter has been fortunate to have such good offensive support.

This is the move that will propel the Cubs to the World Series!

Hopefully his career path follows that of Rick Ankiel as well... :P

Cub pitchers have also been among the league leaders in walks the last two years. Perhaps there is something there. The Cubs throw fewer strikes and have more bouts of wildness, and the Cubs hit more people....hmmmmmmmmmm

Clemens is 41 years old and has the best ERA of his career. As great as he is, he's still pitching over his head.

That doesn't mean he should be saying it. Shut your mouth and play for the team you're with. The Dodgers didn't finish higher than third in 2001 or 2002, then after they dumped Grudz they moved up to second in 2003 and won the division in 2004. I didn't hear him making any observations that they improved their chances by trading him away. I really don't have a problem with what he said except for the last line, where he told the reporter that the moves haven't worked out for the Cubs. It sounds very self-serving and makes him sound bitter that they didn't want him back... not having Mark Grudzielanek is really the least of the Cubs' problems. If he were as good as Todd Walker, I'm sure they would have been happy to have him return. They can't prove they're a good team because they're not a good team. I'm glad that an outsider can draw wild conclusions about the mentality of the Cubs, though.

Well for one thing, Mercker's ERA of is due largely to the years when he was a starting pitcher. The year before he came to the Cubs his ERA was 1.95. And at least some of us are looking at the big picture to attempt to show luck - i.e., looking at the team as a whole. If you want to look at Morris and Rusch, then the Cubs were lucky and the Cards were unlucky last year. You're using two examples to try to disprove an idea that applies to 25 guys. You want a weak argument, that's a weak argument. Since it's your second post, I can't say whether you're above that or not... I suppose time will tell.

Nobody is trading anything of value for Maddux, and furthermore, the Cubs would have to eat at least half his $9M salary next year to get rid of him. I find these hard to do because I don't know who will be free agents, and don't know how much certain guys will demand. I'd love to see Brian Giles in a Cub uniform next year, but if he won't sign without a four year deal, then forget it. In general, I will say that the team's fundamental problems that need to be addressed are OBP and bullpen (especially in the control department). I don't like the idea of Pie, Murton/Lawton and Patterson in the OF next year. I really don't have any confidence in Pie being better than average next year, and Patterson could be as bad as he was this season. If you're counting on Pie/Murton/Cedeno, then you're counting on three guys from the minors to be able to produce. Chances are that at least one, and probably two of them, will not produce. I like Walker or someone similar at 2B, and I really think Giles would be a perfect fit in RF if the money and the contract length are at all reasonable. I'd give Giles 3 but not 4 years.

Yes, but they also have had the best team in the NL the last two seasons and possibly beyond that. Look at who's playing for them. Aside from the obvious homegrown guy (Pujols) they have: Nunez (FA) Grudz (FA) Eckstein (FA) Rolen (Acq via trade) Molina (Home grown) Diaz (FA) Sanders (FA) Edmonds (Acq via trade) Walker (Acq via trade) Taguchi ("Home grown") Mabry (FA) Luna (Rule V) Carpenter (FA) Marquis (Acq via trade) Morris (home grown) Suppan (FA) Mulder (acq via trade) Tavarez (FA) King (Acq via trade) Reyes (FA) Izzy (FA) Thompson (home grown) Flores (FA) Eldred (FA) (I'm not counting losers like Seabol, Rodriguez and Schumaker since they really are just around due to injuries... but I know the first two were minor league FAs) So that's: 14 FA 6 Acq via trade 4 home grown 1 Rule V FOUR home grown players. People act like it's the worst thing in the world to not have home grown talent, but there's an organization that has put together the best team in the NL with a reasonable payroll using mostly talent from the outside. The point is, if you aren't going to have a strong minor league system, at least use some of the guys you do have in the minors to trade for productive major leaguers (like Edmonds, Rolen, King, Marquis and Mulder), and make free agent signings that give you good value. I think Carpenter was kind of a roll of the dice, but Sanders was an excellent value at $3M per, and Grudz at $1M was a good deal as well. Eckstein stays healthy and can get on base a little bit for the $3M per year they gave him, which is good value for a SS. Ideally, it would be nice to have a team that is completely home grown. But the fact of the matter is that many prospects don't pan out. I'm sure Cardinal fans could care less that their minor league system is terrible, considering that they won the pennant last year and are the favorites to do so again this year. If you have a chance to deal prospects for an impact player at the major league level, it's usually a smart idea to do so. But if you're doing it, get a Jim Edmonds, a Scott Rolen or even a young starter and a LOOGY (King), not a Matt Karchner. And when it comes time to sign free agents to patch the holes at the big league level, you need to make smart signings like Reggie Sanders, rather than the duds that the Cubs have historically made, like Steve Buechele and Jeff Blauser.

It feels alright. :P Let's just say it felt a lot better last year. After the World Series, it has most Cardinals fans feeling that anything less than a World Series ring would be a failure. Especially after what we gave up to get Carpenter. I assume you mean Mulder, since Carpenter is basically the steal of the century... I don't know exactly what he's making, but it sure as hell isn't commensurate with his performance. And I know the feeling, like a championship is the only acceptible outcome. That's how I've felt about the Flyers in certain years, the Eagles the last few years, and the Cubs last year. It always ends in failure and abject disappointment... at least if you root for loser franchises like the ones I favor.

Yet here some of us are, actually providing statistical evidence that the last two years, a large number of Cardinals have performed above where they'd be expected to perform based on career norms. I think it's ludicrous for an intelligent person to ignore stats that suggest that the Cards' success the last 2 years does have something to do with luck.

Not bad for a guy with hardly any power

No different than what Glendon Rusch did. One teeny tiny difference - Womack was 34, Rusch was 29... i.e., "his prime", as you call it later in the thread. And how do you know that a guy is going to get better by a change of scenery? Why not get worse by a change of scenery, or stay the same? It doesn't make that big of a difference... Renteria was good but not great defensively, Rolen was great, Womack was about average and so was Pujols. He played in Pittsburgh the year before with a better defensive middle infield and didn't put up numbers that good. He was a pretty poor hitter in the minor leagues as well. In fact, he hasn't put up numbers this good since he played in the Dominican Summer League at age 19. I guess that must have been a winning team. And so what about guys like Tony Womack, Al Reyes, Julian Tavarez and Jim Edmonds getting better when they're past their prime. Carpenter wasn't a first overall draft pick, but he was a first round pick. You still can't say that most guys make the jump from "average" and "injury-riddled" to "Cy Young contender" and "almost completely healthy". 3.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are pretty good but nothing spectacular, and it's certainly not as good as what he's done I guess the point is that you can look for a reason that anyone gets better and make it sound good. Derrek Lee feels more comfortable in his second year in a Cubs uniform. Neifi Perez needed a change of scenery last year and when he got it, he started hitting. Todd Hollandsworth was a former rookie of the year who thrived under Dusty Baker last season. They all sound good, don't they?

Absolutely true... offensively, he is definitely better than Prior.

I find that I have a little bit of a soft spot in my heart for the Pirates, maybe b/c they have sucked for so long that I feel sorry for them, or maybe because they have been so good to the Cubs in trades the last few years. Hopefully some of their young guys like Duke and Eldred will turn into productive major league players... and then the Pirates can trade them to the Cubs. In any case, I will be checking on how tonight's game goes. I know how it feels to be in your position, Jake... rooting for a team that is just playing out the schedule. It's hard to find much to root for, but following the progress of the young guys and enjoying a good pitching matchup or two give at least a little bit of meaning to the last third of the year.

I'm trying to drop Todd Walker and pick up a player in one of my fantasy leagues, and it won't let me. The reason? Someone on my disabled list is not on the DL in real life. The only player I have on the DL is Trot Nixon. Is he on the DL in real life, and does he have the little DL tag next to his name? You betcha! Nice programming job there, yahoo.

Because the Cubs are involved and right now it's impossible to hope for any type of "good" from the Cubs.

That sounds like the Tony LaRussa line of thinking. He has been on fire this month, mostly because everything he hits is falling in, but in June he was horrendous and July he was merely bad. I recall the Cards having some key players missing during those months as well. The problem with seeing someone play every day is that you tend to overvalue them. The best way to compare players in an objective manner is to use statistics, rather than give unfair weight to a guy you know and root for.

I'm not sure what the difference in runs created is, but I'm sure it's way more than the difference in runs saved by Grudz in the field versus runs lost by Kent's defense. Let's remember that Kent's playing half his game in an extreme pitcher's park. Also, if you aren't a fan of Jeff Kent, how about Chase Utley? He's been miles ahead of Grudz at the plate this year too.

Going by Runs Created: Kent Utley Giles Freel Castillo Loretta Walker Durham Weeks Counsell Biggio Aurilia Have all been better than Grudzielanek. LOL, I was about to make the same post... if you go by something like Runs Created or OPS or VORP, he's actually been average or a little worse... but if you look at batting average then he's probably been one of the best!!!

Yes, because starting to take steroids to hang on at the end of your career wouldn't be incredibly stupid.

I was only speaking nicely about Chicago Card Fan... the rest of the Card fans in this thread are trolls and should give themselves a leave of absence from this board. kidding! :lol:

I second his motion... you've been here long enough that people know you're not trolling. Hell, if you start making fun of the Cubs, I might even join in!

I have never heard that before. That's hilarious! :lol: You're kidding... you've never heard that one?!?!?! Jeez there are a bunch of others... can't remember them offhand, but one is: Felons Start, Usually