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  • What's the Deal with Alexander Canario?


    Brandon Glick

    Alexander Canario was called up to the major leagues as a top prospect with lots of power… and he isn’t playing. What is the vendetta David Ross and the front office have against him?

    Image courtesy of © Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

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    As one of the people banging the drum for Alexander Canario to get called up when he went on his recent heater at Triple-A Iowa, I was ecstatic to see the Cubs opt for the high-risk, high-reward outfielder when the September roster expansions came. He fills a void on this team--namely, monstrous, gargantuan power--that should, at the very least, position him to be a valuable pinch-hitter and platoon option. Instead, Canario has all of one at-bat since being recalled on September 1: a strikeout in a meaningless plate appearance in a blowout, against one of the most dominant closers in the sport today (Camilo Doval). Why isn’t the kid getting any playing time?

    To hear it from the boss himself, David Ross attempted to explain his rationale behind sitting a prospect who was scorching hot for three weeks: “Look, we’re in a really good position to win. The guys that got us here are going to play. And the guys that are on the bench, if they’ve got roles, they’ll fill in those roles. Canario got called up for a September call-up. He’ll play when he’s needed and [he] fills in nicely or the game gets out of hand one way or the other–get some at-bats, get in the outfield. I think the future is bright for a lot of our minor leaguers that are coming up, but now’s not the time that I’m trying to get those guys at-bats.”

    Now, there’s a lot of validity imbued in that familiar Rossy stubbornness. Seiya Suzuki is on an absolute tear right now (1.077 OPS over his last 26 games), and Ian Happ is playing really nicely as well (.840 OPS in his last 100 at-bats). Those are the two everyday guys at Canario’s primary positions, left field and right field, and there’s not much sense in sitting them when they’re just as hot as Canario was. No one is advocating for Cody Bellinger to take a day off, and Canario only has limited experience playing center field in the minor leagues, anyway. 

    Beyond them, though, a lot of the Cubs’ regulars are struggling badly. Jeimer Candelario, the big trade deadline acquisition when the Cubs surprisingly bought this year, has a paltry .600 OPS over the last month, with an equally egregious 29% strikeout rate to match. Dansby Swanson has been even worse at the plate, with a .595 OPS in the last 30 days brought down by an ugly .295 slugging percentage. The list keeps going: Nick Madrigal (.638 OPS in the last 30 days), Christopher Morel (.454 OPS), Miguel Amaya (.595 OPS) and others are all in prolonged cold stretches with the bat right now. None of those guys play positions Canario is suited for, but there’s enough positional flexibility on this roster to at least get the top prospect in the lineup against lefties. 

    Now, I need to make it clear: no one is (or at least, no one should be) advocating for Canario to see everyday playing time. Ross is absolutely correct that the Cubs are in position for the playoffs for the first time since 2020 because of their regular starters. Those guys need the chance to work through funks and slumps. However, wins right now are more important than they’ve been in a long while for this team, and willingly playing guys who are producing negative value at the plate isn’t exactly “Manager of the Year”-level coaching. 

    Canario, by the way, is also an important factor in this whole equation. Yes, the needs of the major-league team come first and foremost, but this is a guy who was on his way to being a blue-chip prospect before the freak injuries in winter ball set him back. He needs to be playing (nearly) every day for the sake of his development, not to mention continuing to get his legs back under him, and having him sit on the bench for weeks at a time while Mike Tauchman slashes .178/.294/.205 over his last 23 games played is organizational malpractice. If Canario isn’t going to sniff the field--because of front office dictation, Ross’s hard-headedness, or simply because he isn’t ready--then send him back to Iowa. Let the kid play and keep developing, so that he can, one day, actually contribute to the major league team (and use his roster spot on a guy who will actually contribute right now!). 

    Despite all of this, the Cubs are still winning. Canario isn’t going to be the reason the team makes or misses the playoffs. However, Ross has a habit of grinding his “circle of trust” guys into the dust (gee, wonder where he learned that habit from), and getting a couple of the normal starters a few breathers before the playoffs would kill two birds with one stone, assuming he actually puts Canario in the lineup in those players’ places. Hopefully, the ridiculously powerful outfielder can find himself in a few more games before the regular season ends, lest the Cubs convince themselves that the “Mahomes development plan” is the best way for prospects to learn. 

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    "top" prospect being used extremely loosely. 

    The minor leagues exist to serve the needs of the major league club, not the other way around.  He's here because he's a good use of the roster spot and he hasn't played because he isn't our best option for playing.

     

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    5 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    "top" prospect being used extremely loosely. 

    The minor leagues exist to serve the needs of the major league club, not the other way around.  He's here because he's a good use of the roster spot and he hasn't played because he isn't our best option for playing.

     

    How is anyone who gets 1 AB in 10 days a good use of a roster spot?

     

    They should have just called up Young or Mervis. Not waste this much time of a 23 year olds season.

    Edited by We Got The Whole 9
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    2 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    "top" prospect being used extremely loosely. 

    The minor leagues exist to serve the needs of the major league club, not the other way around.  He's here because he's a good use of the roster spot and he hasn't played because he isn't our best option for playing.

     

    "Top" prospect as in guy who was consensus top 10 in the system and garnering league-wide Top 100/honorable mention consideration before his winter ball injuries following a ridiculous 2022 season. Felt like it was a fair label. 

    The second point I disagree with - yes the minor leagues function as a means of developing guys for the majors, but if a guy isn't going to play in the majors, why not keep developing him in the minors. This isn't some 30 year old journeyman a la Wisdom. This is a guy who has a legitimate chance to be a staple of the next half-decade of Cubs teams. You can argue that he isn't good enough to play in the majors yet... but then he shouldn't be here at all. Simple as that. 

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    58 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

    Mastrobuoni hasn't had ABs either... Ross just trusts certain guys and they've been pretty successful this year on the whole so it's not going to change

    Absolutely. He's stubborn and trusts his baseball instinct. That's fine. 

    My problem is that Canario NEEDS development time badly. He missed most of a crucial year because of injuries. Him sitting around and watching other guys play isn't of any use to him. He needs the ABs. If that's in Iowa, so be it, but while he's here he might as well play at least a little. 

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    6 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

    "Top" prospect as in guy who was consensus top 10 in the system and garnering league-wide Top 100/honorable mention consideration before his winter ball injuries following a ridiculous 2022 season. Felt like it was a fair label. 

    The second point I disagree with - yes the minor leagues function as a means of developing guys for the majors, but if a guy isn't going to play in the majors, why not keep developing him in the minors. This isn't some 30 year old journeyman a la Wisdom. This is a guy who has a legitimate chance to be a staple of the next half-decade of Cubs teams. You can argue that he isn't good enough to play in the majors yet... but then he shouldn't be here at all. Simple as that. 

    This is a really fantastic example of how the prospect industry has gotten out of control and given fans an excuse to expand into hyping some guys who really aren't worthy of being hyped.

    OK, you used to have the Baseball America top-100.  Those are probably top prospects.  

    Now you've got literally dozens of lists out there, and with honorable mentions you're getting well over 100 prospects deep.  Several hundred guys will fit this qualification each season.

    And then we're talking about a guy who isn't even on those lists anymore, but he used to be.  Now you're probably pushing between 300 and 500 prospects in the minors who could qualify for that description.  The definition of "top" prospect is being watered down severely by fans trying to hype up their guys.

    Just like with Mervis, there's an obvious answer to the question "Why aren't the Cubs treating this player like the level of prospect we believe he is?"

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    12 hours ago, Brandon Glick said:

    Absolutely. He's stubborn and trusts his baseball instinct. That's fine. 

    My problem is that Canario NEEDS development time badly. He missed most of a crucial year because of injuries. Him sitting around and watching other guys play isn't of any use to him. He needs the ABs. If that's in Iowa, so be it, but while he's here he might as well play at least a little. 

    It’s 10 days. If that negatively affects his developmental path he never had a chance as a prospect, which he barely is. 

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    21 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    He's here because he's a good use of the roster spot and he hasn't played because he isn't our best option for playing.

    His spot is pretty much filled in the outfield but how do we know he isn't our best option for DH? We have 2 hitters on the MLB roster with a .800+ OPS.

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    7 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

    It’s 10 days. If that negatively affects his developmental path he never had a chance as a prospect, which he barely is. 

    I don't understand this take. He suffered multiple career threatening injuries on the same play as a 22 year old. He comes back against all odds in the same year and catches fire. He needs to be playing! He missed a crucial development year because of the injuries!

    No one's saying he's going fall apart as a baseball player because he's sitting for two weeks. That's never been the argument. But baseball is a sport about finding a rhythm. How the hell is a guy supposed to do that after a year off rehabbing injuries and then sitting around? Send him to the minors if he's not ready. It's really that simple. 

    And if you don't think Canario is a legit prospect... you just haven't been paying attention. Or you want him to fail. 

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    19 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    This is a really fantastic example of how the prospect industry has gotten out of control and given fans an excuse to expand into hyping some guys who really aren't worthy of being hyped.

    OK, you used to have the Baseball America top-100.  Those are probably top prospects.  

    Now you've got literally dozens of lists out there, and with honorable mentions you're getting well over 100 prospects deep.  Several hundred guys will fit this qualification each season.

    And then we're talking about a guy who isn't even on those lists anymore, but he used to be.  Now you're probably pushing between 300 and 500 prospects in the minors who could qualify for that description.  The definition of "top" prospect is being watered down severely by fans trying to hype up their guys.

    Just like with Mervis, there's an obvious answer to the question "Why aren't the Cubs treating this player like the level of prospect we believe he is?"

    You know that was never my point. You questioned my clarification of Canario as a "top prospect" and I provided my reasoning behind it. I never once made the argument he should receive special favor because of his status. 

    The point, as simply as I can explain it: he was called up to the majors. Insofar as you actually want to see this guy be successful, he has to be playing. He's a young guy and missed almost an entire year. You can't just claim "he needs to be better" without giving him a chance to show that. If you think he isn't ready, let him play in the minors. If you think he is, let him play in the majors. Canario AND the Cubs gain absolutely nothing having him sit around watching. If you're just gonna waste the last roster spot, call up a Mastrobuoni who at least has some defensive versatility. There's no reason to have a guy who at least has a chance to become an important part of the team lose out on development time because Rossy has his circle of trust. 

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    I imagine Canario sees it’s better to be in the club collecting game checks and racking up service time vs slogging in the minors. He’s very likely not sitting on his hands either. There’s coaches, facilities, better food, more people etc

     

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    2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

    His spot is pretty much filled in the outfield but how do we know he isn't our best option for DH?

    All available evidence?  This 'well he can't be worse than what we have so it's worth a try' attitude is baffling to me. The games matter a ton, Canario is not an elite prospect and has significant known flaws likely to be exploited in the short term, and there are several alternatives so it's not like there's a singular option he has to beat out.

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    2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    All available evidence?  This 'well he can't be worse than what we have so it's worth a try' attitude is baffling to me. The games matter a ton, Canario is not an elite prospect and has significant known flaws likely to be exploited in the short term, and there are several alternatives so it's not like there's a singular option he has to beat out.

    What evidence? You have 1 PA of evidence for a guy thats carried a 250+ ISO for 2 years in the upper minors. The Cubs are 28th in baseball at the DH position. There's quite literally nothing to lose.

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    14 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

    What evidence? You have 1 PA of evidence for a guy thats carried a 250+ ISO for 2 years in the upper minors. The Cubs are 28th in baseball at the DH position. There's quite literally nothing to lose.

    Canario's career minor league performance and prospect pedigree does not indicate someone ready to be an above average major league hitter, ZiPS and Steamer both see him as a sub-90 wRC+ for an objective estimate.  Should he play instead of Morel?  No, Morel has proven far more at the big league level and Canario's profile is not materially different.  Should he play instead of Madrigal/Tauchman when the other is in the field?  Probably not as both are putting up an offensive baseline higher than we'd expect from Canario and they have a less exploitable approach at the plate.  Should he play instead of Wisdom?  Probably not given what Wisdom has done at the MLB level and continues to do(156 wRC+ in limited time since the all-star break).  Should he play instead of Mastrobuoni?   Well that's rarely going to be a choice given their handedness, but given Mastrobuoni far outproducing Canario's line at AAA and offering greater speed/contact, reasonable people can probably disagree about that one too.  Quoting the team's season line at DH that's about 25% Mancini/Hosmer doesn't make a difference when Canario is not the best option for any singular roster choice that would get him in the lineup, that's why he isn't playing.

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    17 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

    Because every name you just mentioned came with a mountainous minor league pedigree.

    Three of them have time at Iowa this year and all of them outproduced Canario's Iowa line.  The other 2 have been above average MLB hitters every year they've been at that level.  The three RHH Canario is in greatest competition with are 2 high draft picks(4th and 52nd overall) and an international signing who graduated with a higher FV(per FG) than Canario has.  This doesn't mean that there's an enormous chasm between Canario and these players, but it does mean the question of why he doesn't play has a simple answer.

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