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    September Call Ups: Bring Me Canario


    Brandon Glick

    In September, the Cubs roster will expand to 28 players. What should the Cubs do with those precious extra roster spots in the heat of a playoff race?

    Image courtesy of © Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

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    Right off the bat, we should note that the Cubs will add one pitcher and one hitter once the calendar flips to September. Among the possibilities, there are some high-profile players currently on the injured list who may be healthy enough to return in time for the stretch run. That group is highlighted by a quintet of pitchers: Marcus Stroman, Brandon Hughes, Brad Boxberger, Nick Burdi, and prospect Ben Brown. The middle three in that list could prove exceptionally valuable to a bullpen that is already overtaxing its best arms, while Stroman and Brown have a chance to make some critical starts in the final series or two of the season. 

    However, the 14th pitcher on the roster is not the focus for today. Instead, I want to hone in on the extra bat the Cubs will be able to add. Miraculously, the Cubs have no positional prospects on the injured list with any proximity to the major leagues at the moment, meaning that they should be able to choose among their treasure trove of talented bats at Triple-A Iowa (Brennen Davis is on the 40-man roster and currently on a rehab assignment, but he’s lightyears away from his MLB debut as he tries to overcome the injuries that have plagued him this year and last). 

    The case for Pete Crow-Armstrong has already been made (and in the comments on that article, the case for Matt Mervis was debated as well), and indeed, I do think PCA is the best option for the Cubs at the moment, given his elite defense, speed, and red-hot bat. However, this Cubs team isn’t lacking in those departments: they rank 6th in stolen bases in the majors and have numerous gold glovers patrolling spots in both the infield and outfield. 

    What these Cubs need is power. The team ranks 13th in home runs and 11th in slugging, though even those middling rankings are boosted by the 22-12 stretch the team has had since the All-Star break (which has featured more than a couple of pseudo-batting practices against opposing position players on the mound in blowouts). Assuming Mervis isn’t getting the call with Jeimer Candelario blocking his path at first base, the Cubs will have a few options from among whom to pick. 

    Both Yonathan Perlaza and Jake Slaughter lead the Iowa Cubs with 19 home runs, and Perlaza especially deserves a look following his breakout year (and .945 OPS). But what if the Cubs want to go for broke, throwing caution to the wind as they hunt down a Wild Card spot? I rise to speak for Alexander Canario, he of true 60-grade (or better) power and hitter of 37 home runs (across three levels) last season. 

    If you’ve kept up at all with the farm system over the last 12 months, you know Canario’s deal. He was engaged in a wicked race with Mervis for the home run crown among all minor leaguers last season, before a devastating injury in winter ball shelved him until the middle of July. There were myriad questions regarding how he’d look upon his return, as he tried to maintain the elite athleticism that generated so much easy torque and power in his swing while recovering from upper- and lower-body injuries. 

    Those questions are still there, but there have been positive signs recently. Though he’s posted a meager .753 OPS in 28 games (~125 at-bats) at Iowa, he’s hit four homers, and they have certainly not been cheap ones. His power--his true carrying tool--is still there, even if he’s working through plenty of rust and understandable timing issues. And the work he’s putting in is already paying dividends: In August, Canario has hit three of his home runs and posted an .848 OPS in just 62 at-bats. 

    Canario, like Perlaza, is a true corner outfielder, though his 60-grade arm (his other high-end tool) makes him better suited for right field than his Iowa teammate. PCA, meanwhile, is a center fielder through and through, though his immaculate glove will play well anywhere there’s grass. 

    The final consideration to this whole equation is the 40-man roster crunch: the Cubs currently have 38 players on the roster, with five more players (all pitchers) on the 60-day IL (who do not account for a spot on 40-man until they are activated off of the Injured List). Want to guess which of the three outfielders listed above is already on the 40-man? It’s Canario. 

    It may seem haphazard and a little short-sighted to bring a prospect who’s only just returning from a career-threatening injury up to the big leagues in the midst of a playoff push, but come on. Have you seen what this guy does to baseballs? Even if only as a right-handed power bat off the bench, or a platoon or matchup protection for one of the everyday starters, Canario can offer this Cubs team some value in a space in which it’s not particularly dominant. The Cubs already blew our minds by electing to buy at the deadline; why not keep the good times rolling? 

    And by “good times”, I mean bring moonshots like these to Clark and Addison.

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    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted

    4 hours ago, CubinNY said:

    He should change his handle to "No Context Kyle"

    Context is just a method for importing bias 

    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Derek_Lee_Truther said:

    I actually sort of changed my mind since yesterday. I did a deeper dive on him and he's crushing it right now.

    Coming back from a devastating injury, he was always gonna struggle. But in the last 12 games his OPS is over .900. He's back to where he was at the end of last year. And that was a damn good player.

    In that park, in that league, an over .900 ops makes you a barely above average AAA hitter.  Which makes you a bad MLB hitter.

    • Like 1
    CubinNY

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    In that park, in that league, an over .900 ops makes you a barely above average AAA hitter.  Which makes you a bad MLB hitter.

    You appear to use context when it suits you, lol.

    • Like 1
    Rcal10

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Brandon Glick said:

     

    This is mostly what I've been getting at - Canario still has a ton of development left in the minors, but he's hitting right now. The Cubs chose to buy at the deadline and need to reinforce this team however they can, even if their chances of winning the world series remain marginally slim. If Canario is the hottest hitter in the system in two weeks time, and the lineup is continuing to be desperate for power, there's a case to be made for someone with his skillset as a bench/platoon option. 

    But the line up isn’t desperate for power. Since the ASB they are second in baseball in home runs. Over the long haul, maybe they could use more power. But right now they don’t. IMO PCA add away more than Canario. Honestly with Morel struggling and the clock striking midnight on Tauchman, I would love to see PCA up and in the line up now. 

    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted (edited)

    1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

    You appear to use context when it suits you, lol.

    It's about consistency.

    When most people say "context," what they mean is an ad hoc rule for splitting the data they want from the data they don't want to reach the conclusion they want.  "This player may look bad, but if you only look at exactly this set of information and exclude the other information for reasons that don't apply to any other situation and I decided are relevant for this case, then it's actually good."  


     

    Edited by Hairyducked Idiot
    Transmogrified Tiger

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    In that park, in that league, an over .900 ops makes you a barely above average AAA hitter.

    77bbf976e71eb54722a1404f7a7998fc.png

    • Haha 1
    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted (edited)

    15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    77bbf976e71eb54722a1404f7a7998fc.png

    The IL has a collective OPS of .801 and Iowa has a historical park factor of about 110. Iowa Cubs hitters are collectively OPSing .845 and their pitchers have a team ERA of 5.37.  The best team OPS the Colorado Rockies ever put up in Coors Fields' launchiest days was a .837.  

    Just looking at raw OPS is going to massively overrate hitters playing at Iowa, especally when you aren't even looking at raw OPS but selecting an arbitrary endpoint to maximize the OPS you're looking at.  

    If you really squint and fudge, it's almost always within reason to argue that anyone employed to play professional baseball at the AAA level could probably do a credible job filling the last roster spot on an MLB team for a month.  

    But that's what we're doing here. We're squinting and fudging to make a case for a guy because pixels gotta be spilled and because it's fun to make cases for guys. He's not better than Matt Mervis, or Jared Young, or Yonathan Perlaza, or Mastrobuoni, or PCA.  He's indistinguishable from Bote or Slaughter or Vasquez.  

    Edited by Hairyducked Idiot
    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted

    I'm very disappointed that plug-in MLE calculators are no longer a thing on the internet, apparently.

    Transmogrified Tiger

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    The IL has a collective OPS of .801 and Iowa has a historical park factor of about 110. Iowa Cubs hitters are collectively OPSing .845 and their pitchers have a team ERA of 5.37.  The best team OPS the Colorado Rockies ever put up in Coors Fields' launchiest days was a .837.

    The IL as it's currently constructed is 2 years old, and the last time the I-Cubs had an above league average team OPS was in 2016.  Maybe a coincidence the last time they had good prospects they had a good offense!  But let's read the thing being responded to again.

     

    Quote

    In that park, in that league, an over .900 ops makes you a barely above average AAA hitter.

     

    Don't think so.  Doesn't mean the rest of your takeaway isn't true, prospects fail and the jump from AAA to MLB is a huge one.  To reiterate, I do not want Canario called up nor do I think he's more than a 4th OF at the MLB level.  But if we're gonna antagonize folks about falling in love with prospects under the guise of objectivity, maybe suggesting that 'actually, crushing AAA pitching is pedestrian' is the wrong tact.

    • Like 1
    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    The IL as it's currently constructed is 2 years old, and the last time the I-Cubs had an above league average team OPS was in 2016.  Maybe a coincidence the last time they had good prospects they had a good offense!  But let's read the thing being responded to again.

     

     

    Don't think so.  Doesn't mean the rest of your takeaway isn't true, prospects fail and the jump from AAA to MLB is a huge one.  To reiterate, I do not want Canario called up nor do I think he's more than a 4th OF at the MLB level.  But if we're gonna antagonize folks about falling in love with prospects under the guise of objectivity, maybe suggesting that 'actually, crushing AAA pitching is pedestrian' is the wrong tact.

    Nope, still right.  Crushing is relative to league and park.  In a league where everyone is OPSing .800, in a hitters park, a .900 OPS isn't "crushing."

    Transmogrified Tiger

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    Nope, still right.  Crushing is relative to league and park.  In a league where everyone is OPSing .800, in a hitters park, a .900 OPS isn't "crushing."

    Choosing to die on the hills that Principal Park is Coors-ian hitters paradise and out-OPSing league average by 100 points isn't good enough is definitely a choice.  Godspeed.

    • Like 1
    Brandon Glick

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    In that park, in that league, an over .900 ops makes you a barely above average AAA hitter.  Which makes you a bad MLB hitter.

    This is a take I can't defend. What do you want the guy to do? Post a 1.500 OPS? Hit a home run every single game? By wRC+, he's been 40% better than the average than the average hitter across all of Triple A (park adjusted) for a month.

    Source: 

    Again, he's far from a finished product. But this kid can clearly hit the ball. A 1.000 OPS coming off multiple major injuries speaks to his potential. 

    Brandon Glick

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

    But the line up isn’t desperate for power. Since the ASB they are second in baseball in home runs. Over the long haul, maybe they could use more power. But right now they don’t. IMO PCA add away more than Canario. Honestly with Morel struggling and the clock striking midnight on Tauchman, I would love to see PCA up and in the line up now. 

    Yes, they've been on something of a hot stretch with the long ball, but a lot of those have come in blowouts (and against opposing position players). And there isn't one guy in the lineup right now, perhaps besides Bellinger, who I think you legitimately believe can hit one out any time he steps to the plate. 

    PCA is absolutely the top choice. There shouldn't be a question there. But if the 40-man crunch is tighter than we realize, Canario would get a longer look than most think. 

    Brandon Glick

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    Choosing to die on the hills that Principal Park is Coors-ian hitters paradise and out-OPSing league average by 100 points isn't good enough is definitely a choice.  Godspeed.

    I guarantee you right now that if you promised the Rockies every single one of their hitters next season would post an OPS 100 points over league average, they would take that in a heartbeat and laugh all the way out the door. 

    We Got The Whole 9

    Posted

    Canario has another homer tonight already 

    • Love 1
    Brandon Glick

    Posted

    Sharing this because it shamelessly feeds the narrative:

     

     

    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted

    48 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

    This is a take I can't defend. What do you want the guy to do? Post a 1.500 OPS? Hit a home run every single game? By wRC+, he's been 40% better than the average than the average hitter across all of Triple A (park adjusted) for a month.

    Source: 

    Again, he's far from a finished product. But this kid can clearly hit the ball. A 1.000 OPS coming off multiple major injuries speaks to his potential. 

    What does being a finished product have to do with it?  We're talking about calling him up for a roster spot right now, not his prospect status.

    All the games count. The games before the last 21 were also official minor league baseball games that count on his record.  There's no reason to pick out his last 21 games other than to make him look better, it's motivated reasoning.

    What more do I want him to do? Not be 7th on his AAA team in OPS (min. 100 PAs).  

    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

    Canario has another homer tonight already 

    OK then this game will probably count on his stats. If he hadn't, it might not have.

    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted (edited)

    1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    Choosing to die on the hills that Principal Park is Coors-ian hitters paradise and out-OPSing league average by 100 points isn't good enough is definitely a choice.  Godspeed.

    Good enough for what?

    Good enough to continue his employment? Good enough for his parents to be proud of him? Absolutely.

    But if that's your standard for good enough for a major-league roster spot, we're gonna need to expand to 50 teams to fit all the newly qualified major leaguers.  Especially since we're not even talking about what he's *actually* hitting, we're talking about what he's hitting in a sample specifically selected ad hoc because it puts him in the best light.

    Edited by Hairyducked Idiot
    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted

     

    1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    Choosing to die on the hills that Principal Park is Coors-ian hitters paradise and out-OPSing league average by 100 points isn't good enough is definitely a choice.  Godspeed.

    Iowa Cubs have an .868 team OPS at home vs ,821 on the road.  I don't see OPS against in any easy to find site, but the Iowa Cubs pitching staff has an ERA of 5.51 at home and 5.20 on the road.  Both numbers indicate home park inflating offense by about 6%.

    The IL average OPS is .801. The MLB average OPS this season is .731.  So league average is ~9.5% higher in this league vs. the majors.

    So even if the international League were *exactly* the same difficulty as the major leagues, an Iowa Cub would need to be putting up an .848 OPS to demonstrate that they would be a league average hitter in the majors.  

    But of course, MLB is quite a bit harder than the majors, as Matt Mervis found out.

    Here's a list of every player who has had at least 50 PAs for both the Iowa Cubs and Chicago Cubs in 2023, what they OPS'd in Iowa and what they OPS'd in MLB

    Miguel Amaya .929 to .771 (-17%)
    Nick Madrigal 1.192 to .710 (-40%)
    Mike Tauchman .870 to .775 (-11%)
    Christopher Morel 1.156 to .808 (-30%)
    Miles Mastrobuoni .921 to ,565 (-38%)
    Matt Mervis .958 to .531 (-45%)

    If someone wants to take the time to weight that by PAs be my guest, but in the raw that's an average decline of 30%.

    So even if he *were* OPSing .900 (which again, he isn't, that's an arbitrary endpoint), that would make him project to about a .630 OPS in the majors.

    I'm sure it's fun to think the Cubs are just *so* good as an orgainzation that they have literally a dozen guys in Iowa who could hit in the majors right now but we don't have room for, the reality is it's just a park/league combination giving everyone superficial slash lines.

    Of course, the flip side of this is that I've probably been too hard on pitchers like Wicks.

    • Like 2
    Transmogrified Tiger

    Posted

    No one's saying that OPSing .900 in AAA means MLB success ya goober, you tried parlaying that idea into the claim that OPSing .900+ is a "barely above average AAA hitter", which you've subsequently proven incorrect yourself with your hand-derived (and still overstated since *leagues* consistently perform better at home due to non-park related factors) park factor and statement of the league's average OPS.

    Tryptamine

    Posted

    Oh look, we're back at the unless AAA hitter is putting up 1.300 OPS they suck and aren't worth a roster spot.

    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted (edited)

    17 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    No one's saying that OPSing .900 in AAA means MLB success ya goober, you tried parlaying that idea into the claim that OPSing .900+ is a "barely above average AAA hitter", which you've subsequently proven incorrect yourself with your hand-derived (and still overstated since *leagues* consistently perform better at home due to non-park related factors) park factor and statement of the league's average OPS.

    It's 100% correct.  .800 league OPS, 6% park inflation means you need an .848 OPS just to be league average.  .900 would be barely above average.

    I'm just not even close to incorrect on this one.

    Edited by Hairyducked Idiot
    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

    Oh look, we're back at the unless AAA hitter is putting up 1.300 OPS they suck and aren't worth a roster spot.

    Well some of them play good defense, that could help their case.

    Hairyducked Idiot

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    No one's saying that OPSing .900 in AAA means MLB success ya goober, you tried parlaying that idea into the claim that OPSing .900+ is a "barely above average AAA hitter", which you've subsequently proven incorrect yourself with your hand-derived (and still overstated since *leagues* consistently perform better at home due to non-park related factors) park factor and statement of the league's average OPS.

    The most recent actual park factor for Iowa that I can find was published in 2022 by baseball america and had Iowa at 111 for generic run production and 119 for home runs. So if anything, I'm being generous by merely calling it 6%. 

    It's hard to be more right than I am on this one.  At the end of the day, all you have is generic sputtering fake outrage and no facts.




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