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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

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    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

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    Featured Comments

    ILMindState

    ILMindState 305

    Posted

    Damn this babip luck

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,133

    Posted

    Dansby be saving runs

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,645

    Posted

    Seiya terrified me on that fly ball.

    • Like 1
    ILMindState

    ILMindState 305

    Posted

    I was told repeatedly that Dansby sucks at defense when it matters 

    • Like 1
    • Love 1
    Brian707

    Brian707 1,606

    Posted

    Could be a lot worse than 1-0

    Relax ninnies

    Outshined_One

    Outshined_One 993

    Posted

    Someone give Boyd a gold star.

    Hortonhearsawho

    Hortonhearsawho 96

    Posted

    Dansb's defense is keeping it close at least. That was a great catch. 

    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 276

    Posted

    Swanson making all the plays today 

    Hortonhearsawho

    Hortonhearsawho 96

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Seiya terrified me on that fly ball.

    I was thinking PCA better be the one catching that lol

    731.4life

    731.4life 33

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

    6 more outs until the superpen is ready to slam the door.

    and it's going to be 10X tougher when that shadow peeps in over home plate. This game will be decided in 5 innings, not 9.

    JHBulls

    JHBulls 999

    Posted

    I’ve just taken a ride in my time machine and spoiler alert, the Cubs aren’t going to score a run this inning. 

    Nolansomebody

    Nolansomebody 55

    Posted

    Good recovery there by the defense.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,812

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ILMindState said:

    I was told repeatedly that Dansby sucks at defense when it matters 

    a7p7p3.jpg

    • Haha 2
    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,689

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ILMindState said:

    I was told repeatedly that Dansby sucks at defense when it matters 

    I remember that. If not for Dansby it could be 4-0 or worse right now. 

    Old Style

    Old Style 637

    Posted

    Swanson doing his best Ozzie Smith impersonation today.

    chibears55

    chibears55 1,051

    Posted

    Cubs hitters doing exactly what we were afraid of and it makes it extra harder on Boyd and whomever else comes in cause they have to go extra harder to make perfect pitches.

    Stratos

    Stratos 525

    Posted

    I've already literally chewed all my fingernails off

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,645

    Posted

    Based on the radio attendance guesses, the Cubs can't even sell out Wrigley for playoff games?  Granted it is a weekday game, but are there really a few thousand open seats?

    DrCub

    DrCub 71

    Posted

    This offense shitting the bed is just so predictable.  

    • Like 1
    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,133

    Posted

    This feels so much like the Marlins series so far

    We Got The Whole 9

    We Got The Whole 9 1,268

    Posted

    Spent 80% of the 2nd half unable to hit a fastball so this tracks. He is mowing us down.

    Stratos

    Stratos 525

    Posted

    Just now, DrCub said:

    This offense shitting the bed is just so predictable.  

    To be fair Pivetta has been painting the edges really well.  Not many hittable pitches.



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