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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

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    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

    Short Film: Path of Two Minds
    Novel: The Great, Horrible Tragedy

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    Featured Comments

    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 210

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Brian707 said:

    Just because it was done for 100 years doesn't mean its the best move.

    Come On Now GIF by First We Feast

    It can be useful in some situations though, I agree the game has evolved a bit but it's weird to me that a guy with 8 years of big league experience has never tried to lay down a bunt a single time in his life.  Even role players these days think they are Barry Bonds 

    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

    It can be useful in some situations though, I agree the game has evolved a bit but it's weird to me that a guy with 8 years of big league experience has never tried to lay down a bunt a single time in his life.  Even role players these days think they are Barry Bonds 

    You really don’t know if he tried to bunt and couldn’t get it down. Or if he failed and they got a force out. I also have no idea why you attribute a guy not bunting to thinking he is above it. The manager makes the decision, not the player. If Counsell or any manager before him wanted Happ to bunt he would have tried. To me, that is the most ridiculous point of this discussion. We can agree to disagree on the use of the bunt. What I cannot get past is this silly idea of a player being arrogant, selfish and not a team player if he doesn’t bunt. To bunt or not is a manager decision, period. 

    I owned a Suzuki

    I owned a Suzuki 125

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

    It can be useful in some situations though, I agree the game has evolved a bit but it's weird to me that a guy with 8 years of big league experience has never tried to lay down a bunt a single time in his life.  Even role players these days think they are Barry Bonds 

    Why do you assume what Happ thinks or feels? Did he ignore a bunt sign? 

    Andy

    Andy 577

    Posted

    I don't know the stats on Happ's bunting but I'm almost certain I recall him trying to do so once (probably in an extra-inning fake baseball situation) and it going spectacularly poorly. Good hitters aren't practicing bunting all that much because a good hitter bunting is almost exclusively a stupid idea.

    • Like 3
    We Got The Whole 9

    We Got The Whole 9 1,144

    Posted

    Who the horsefeathers wants a guy who's played 8 years without bunting to try to do one in a playoff game anyway? You're all alone on this one. The reason he doesn't bunt is because the organization realizes how idiotic it almost always is. From Maddon to Ross to Counsell, they dont want Ian Happ to try to bunt man.

    Brian707

    Brian707 1,519

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

    Who the horsefeathers wants a guy who's played 8 years without bunting to try to do one in a playoff game anyway? You're all alone on this one. The reason he doesn't bunt is because the organization realizes how idiotic it almost always is. From Maddon to Ross to Counsell, they dont want Ian Happ to try to bunt man.

    And If Happ hit that scorcher 4 feet to the left, it would have been a double. The Buntingstan wouldn't have made a peep



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