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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?

    Brandon Glick
    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

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    Featured Comments

    soccer10k

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

    It's a WC round tradition!

    Don’t forget the 2017 NLCS also. 8 runs in 5 games.

    Nolansomebody

    Posted (edited)

    8 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

    I’ve just taken a ride in my time machine and spoiler alert, the Cubs aren’t going to score a run this inning. 

    How were you right?

    Edited by Nolansomebody
    Jason Ross

    Posted

    Missed a few pitches, but Pivetta also doing good work out there. 

    Cubbies1996

    Posted

    lol what a joke. This team crumbles in big time moments 

    squally1313

    Posted

    Boyd has been fine enough besides the pitch to Bogaerts but he's just not getting the Ks (as has been the trend lately) and I don't know if you want to fight both BABIP and third time through the order penalty.

    JHBulls

    Posted

    Kyle Tucker kind of sucks these days. That’s bad.

    Cam Smith sucks even more. That’s good.

    Cam Smith’s HOF speech will be annoying in 20 years. 

    Jason Ross

    Posted

    Just now, squally1313 said:

    Boyd has been fine enough besides the pitch to Bogaerts but he's just not getting the Ks (as has been the trend lately) and I don't know if you want to fight both BABIP and third time through the order penalty.

    Yeah, might be a good time to just have Pomeranz up and running.

    Manny Trillos Brother

    Posted (edited)

    Scratch that, 1 in 1 vs Rockies in 2018 WC

    Edited by Manny Trillos Brother
    Hortonhearsawho

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

    It's a WC round tradition!

    Definite Cubs vs Rockies vibes.

    mul21

    Posted

    Let's give Pivetta some credit here.  He's painting the edges and the top of the zone.  Outside of PCA, he's not making guys look bad, he's just making really good pitcher's pitches. 

    SpongeWorthy

    Posted

    Just now, JHBulls said:

    Kyle Tucker kind of sucks these days. That’s bad.

    Cam Smith sucks even more. That’s good.

    Cam Smith’s HOF speech will be annoying in 20 years. 

    to be fair to kyle he's always been a ****** postseason hitter 

    • Like 1
    DrCub

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Stratos said:

    To be fair Pivetta has been painting the edges really well.  Not many hittable pitches.

    He has looked good, but enough hittable pitches and pitches way out of the zone that we’re swinging at.  

    mul21

    Posted

    Also, Tucker is back to yanking everything to first base again like he was when he was cold.  I know they'll never do it, but I wouldn't be mad if Mo was in there instead tomorrow.

    JHBulls

    Posted

    1 minute ago, SpongeWorthy said:

    to be fair to kyle he's always been a ****** postseason hitter 


    You don’t know just how comforting that actually is. 

    DrCub

    Posted

    1 minute ago, mul21 said:

    Let's give Pivetta some credit here.  He's painting the edges and the top of the zone.  Outside of PCA, he's not making guys look bad, he's just making really good pitcher's pitches. 

    3 of the 5Ks they showed were a decent amount outside the zone.  Plus, we’ve missed the few mistakes he’s made. 

    JHBulls

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Nolansomebody said:

    How were you right?

    It’s all about the flux capacitor. 

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
    squally1313

    Posted

    Can not let Fermin do that in front of Tatis and Machado

    Stratos

    Posted

    Boyd did his job.  

    Irrelevant Dude

    Posted

    1 minute ago, JHBulls said:

    Kyle Tucker kind of sucks these days. That’s bad.

    The Cubs have to play Tucker here and hope he breaks out, but their best cleanup hitter at the moment is sitting on the bench.

    • Like 1
    ILMindState

    Posted

    At this rate, there's only about 6-7 more ABs before Tucker becomes a Dodger so enjoy it while it lasts

    • Like 1
    Eeyore

    Posted

    When I got home, I was hoping that this game wasn't on a streaming service.

    I wish that this game was on a streaming service.

    Outshined_One

    Posted

    Just now, ILMindState said:

    At this rate, there's only about 6-7 more ABs before Tucker becomes a Dodger so enjoy it while it lasts

    Mets.  It's destiny.

    Irrelevant Dude

    Posted

    I don't love pulling Boyd here, but I get it.  I'm just not sure the Cubs have the pen to pull this off.

    squally1313

    Posted

    Like Palencia here. Would have let Boyd take his chances with 2 on and nobody out, but hopefully Palencia gets you through Tatis and Machado and you have Pomeranz ready to deal with the lefty heavy bottom of the order.

    • Like 1



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