I Am Begging David Ross to Just Steal the Bases Next Time

The Cubs are 6th in SB and SBA, and 4th in BsR, the idea that not trying to steal third base with Candelario(who was a whisker from getting picked off 2nd on the first pitch) is emblematic of them being overly conservative and leaving runs on the table on the bases is absurd to me.  He has never attempted a steal of 3rd as a big leaguer.  With his mediocre speed (56th percentile sprint per Statcast) Candelario's SB are basically all crimes of opportunity, taking advantage of neglectful pitchers and defenses.  That's the opposite of the current situation, because even if they don't suspect Candelario of trying to steal, they're going to be not only positioned to hold his lead to play Madrigal but they want to keep him from getting a head start since they hope a poor bunt gives them a shot at the force at 3rd.

I said it in the game thread, but that plate appearance posed the choice of either hitting Madrigal or a catcher, a DP is a real risk and given Madrigal's bat control, probably greater than that of a failed bunt.  Yes, Morel isn't the paragon of contact behind him, but you're still lowering the bar for both him and Hoerner/Happ to tie the game and take the lead.  I can accept that some people might prefer some other permutation of decisions for various reasons, though I do think fans of a certain age have overcorrected on bunt hatred when teams *must* have one run as opposed to old-school managers bunting with their 2 hitter in the 1st inning.  But stealing 3rd is not a high percentage play, bunting is certainly not an objectively bad one, and letting Madrigal or a catcher swing away gives you a most likely outcome of Morel stepping to the plate needing to do even more than he needed last night, at which point he's still the point of failure for the inning's success and not the decision in the previous PA.

All these terrible alternatives are being treated as gold just so we can dance around the fact the prospect/rookie DH got his buttocks handed to him by 92-93 MPH Phil Bickford fastballs. 

Morel’s the kind of untouchable Young Star hitter that shouldn’t be put into a 2 RISP, 1 out, 1 run down spot in the 9th…Madness

Yeah, no.  Stealing 3rd with Candelario there would have been a worse call than the bunt.  If Tauchman was on 2nd and Candelario on 1st, it's a different story - but stealing 3rd with a guy who isn't a base stealer is asking for trouble

Rather have roll the dice with Amaya than Madrigal.

Are we sure that Nick "I love nothing more than chopping the ball into the ground six inches in front of home plate as hard as I can" Madrigal hitting a groundball automatically results in a double play? First and third with one out with Morel up is not much different than 2nd/3rd, only in this scenario you're not eliminating the 30%ish chance he doesn't make an out. 

16 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Are we sure that Nick "I love nothing more than chopping the ball into the ground six inches in front of home plate as hard as I can" Madrigal hitting a groundball automatically results in a double play? First and third with one out with Morel up is not much different than 2nd/3rd, only in this scenario you're not eliminating the 30%ish chance he doesn't make an out. 

If by “not much different” you mean objectively worse…then yes, no so different

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I'm not going to pinch hit for (Morel), he can hit one to the seats too just like he did earlier in the game.

All the more reason NOT to bunt in front of him.  If he hits a home run, what does it matter which bases the runners were on?

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Are we sure that Nick "I love nothing more than chopping the ball into the ground six inches in front of home plate as hard as I can" Madrigal hitting a groundball automatically results in a double play? First and third with one out with Morel up is not much different than 2nd/3rd, only in this scenario you're not eliminating the 30%ish chance he doesn't make an out. 

There's lots of long tail possibilities that make it difficult to reduce to an absolute probability.  For one example, like you mention Madrigal is more likely to beat out a DP turn than many, but the Mets may be more aggressive in trying to get the runner at 3rd on a ground ball to the pitcher or left side.

I don’t like the stealing idea, but I do like getting the runners moving with a hit and run. Madrigal does make contact. In that case if he hits it on the ground not only would the runners move up, but there would be a chance of an actual hit. I rally think the bunt versus swing away is a 50/50 decision that gets criticized if whatever the manager decides, if it doesn’t work. But in this case with Morel up next I would have liked the idea of a hit and run. 

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t like the stealing idea, but I do like getting the runners moving with a hit and run. Madrigal does make contact. In that case if he hits it on the ground not only would the runners move up, but there would be a chance of an actual hit. I rally think the bunt versus swing away is a 50/50 decision that gets criticized if whatever the manager decides, if it doesn’t work. But in this case with Morel up next I would have liked the idea of a hit and run. 

Hit-and-runs turn into bad stolen base attempts more often than they work out. And even more often, they turn into foul balls. 

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Are we sure that Nick "I love nothing more than chopping the ball into the ground six inches in front of home plate as hard as I can" Madrigal hitting a groundball automatically results in a double play? First and third with one out with Morel up is not much different than 2nd/3rd, only in this scenario you're not eliminating the 30%ish chance he doesn't make an out. 

He's hit into 3 double plays all year, none since May 10th.  I don't know how many opportunities he's had though so that stat by itself doesn't tell us much.  We do know he hits a crapload of GBs, but his sprint speed is above average (70 percentile) so I guess his sprint speed + low average EV means he could avoid DPs, but even if he avoids the DP he's put the team in a worse position than bunting (1st and 3rd, 1 out vs. 2nd and 3rd, 1 out).  But maybe the Mets don't pitch around Nico if Morel strikes out with the go ahead run on first.

The other option is to not bat Madrigal at all.  I've seen a lot of "well what was Ross supposed to do, he had a GIDP machine up" on Twitter.  You could put Gomes up, who hits 2 fly balls for every ground ball, but if he hits a ground ball anywhere near someone its a guaranteed DP.  You could keep Amaya in there who also hits significantly more fly balls than ground balls. 

I just think bunts are stupid, especially in a game you are trailing.  If the game was tied, I'd have accepted it more.  I think RE calculators say that the only time its actually a benefit to bunt is in a tie game in the 8th or 9th with a runner on second.  Other scenarios decrease run expectancy, but many by a negligible amount, thus other variables like GB rate, K rate, sprint speed, etc come into play.

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Hit-and-runs turn into bad stolen base attempts more often than they work out. And even more often, they turn into foul balls. 

I don’t think you can made a blanket statement like that and prove it to be right. There are so many variables. Sure, hit and run with Morel up is a bad idea. Will often result in a bad stolen base attempt. Hit and run with Madrigal is pretty safe. He at least hits the ball when he swings at it. And if he fouls it off it is no harm either. In that exact scenario, IMO hit and run makes the most sense. Different hitter maybe something different. I just don’t think bunting to bring Morel up was the best choice. And if you are afraid of the double play you run the guys. As I said, very good chance Madrigal makes contact. 

26 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think you can made a blanket statement like that and prove it to be right. There are so many variables. Sure, hit and run with Morel up is a bad idea. Will often result in a bad stolen base attempt. Hit and run with Madrigal is pretty safe. He at least hits the ball when he swings at it. And if he fouls it off it is no harm either. In that exact scenario, IMO hit and run makes the most sense. Different hitter maybe something different. I just don’t think bunting to. Ring Morel up was the best choice. And if you are afraid of the double play you run the guys. As I said, very good chance Madrigal makes contact. 

Phil Bickford's a pretty inconsistent strike throwing pitcher.  He's bottom 4th percentile in the league in terms of walk rate.  Madrigal does make a lot of contact and he's pretty good at handling the bat, but it very well could be an uncompetitive pitch that Madrigal is simply unable to get to.  I'm not sure Bickford's a perfect pitcher to go hit and run against.

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Phil Bickford's a pretty inconsistent strike throwing pitcher.  He's bottom 4th percentile in the league in terms of walk rate.  Madrigal does make a lot of contact and he's pretty good at handling the bat, but it very well could be an uncompetitive pitch that Madrigal is simply unable to get to.  I'm not sure Bickford's a perfect pitcher to go hit and run against.

That fine. No problem disagreeing. It is what I would have liked to see. I feel Madrigal has a better chance of hitting a ground ball then he does not making any contact. And even if he did swing and miss there is still a chance the bases  are stolen. There are basically 4 options there. Take a pitch and straight steal, hit and run, bunt or just swing away. All have their pluses and minuses. For me, with Madrigal up, I would have got the runners moving. 

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That fine. No problem disagreeing. It is what I would have liked to see. I feel Madrigal has a better chance of hitting a ground ball then he does not making any contact. And even if he did swing and miss there is still a chance the bases  are stolen. There are basically 4 options there. Take a pitch and straight steal, hit and run, bunt or just swing away. All have their pluses and minuses. For me, with Madrigal up, I would have got the runners moving. 

There is certainly a chance.  But I think you're probably playing with a lot of extra fire, to end up with a similar outcome.  Madrigal's likely to hit a ground ball over anything, right?  Perhaps moreso if he's forced to swing in a hit-and-run situation than a Madrigal-choice-of-pitch.  So the goal here would be to stay out of the double play, no?  It's probably a decent bet that the end result is that of a 2nd-3rd-1-out situation (the same result as a bunt) as Madrigal grounds out.  There's more risk/reward in play here; you risk a double play on any line drive hit at an infielder, you risk an uncompetitive pitch (more so due to Bickford's lack of strike throwing) resulting in a CS.  Obviously there's reward; a ball through the infield, scores a run, maybe you get the runners over on a steal, so I won't discount it (though Candelario doesn't have the kind of track record that makes me think he's a super bet to steal third on a hit and run which is usually more delayed than a straight steal).  I'm pretty 50/50 on the bunt thing, but I think I'd be pretty skeptical of a hit and run there.  I'm not sure the risk outweighs that reward.

The obvious debate to this question is should we just call up PCA to pinch run in a situation like this. 

(chanting) Merge the threads! Merge the threads!

Just now, squally1313 said:

The obvious debate to this question is should we just call up PCA to pinch run in a situation like this. 

(chanting) Merge the threads! Merge the threads!

If only we had a power hitting lefty 1B with a sub-20 K% in AAA to use as a PH in these situations, amirite

29 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

There is certainly a chance.  But I think you're probably playing with a lot of extra fire, to end up with a similar outcome.  Madrigal's likely to hit a ground ball over anything, right?  Perhaps moreso if he's forced to swing in a hit-and-run situation than a Madrigal-choice-of-pitch.  So the goal here would be to stay out of the double play, no?  It's probably a decent bet that the end result is that of a 2nd-3rd-1-out situation (the same result as a bunt) as Madrigal grounds out.  There's more risk/reward in play here; you risk a double play on any line drive hit at an infielder, you risk an uncompetitive pitch (more so due to Bickford's lack of strike throwing) resulting in a CS.  Obviously there's reward; a ball through the infield, scores a run, maybe you get the runners over on a steal, so I won't discount it (though Candelario doesn't have the kind of track record that makes me think he's a super bet to steal third on a hit and run which is usually more delayed than a straight steal).  I'm pretty 50/50 on the bunt thing, but I think I'd be pretty skeptical of a hit and run there.  I'm not sure the risk outweighs that reward.

One thing is certain. There is no right answer. Which leads to whatever the manager chooses, if it doesn’t work he will be criticized by some. And if it did work those claiming they would have done something else won’t say a word. I would have put guys in motion, but I do see reasons for whatever the manager did. All options he had came with risk/reward. I am not blaming him for bunting and I wouldnt blame him for swinging away. It is just one of many decisions a manager has to make where there are many options.

TBH, the worst thing he did was put Wesnecki in when 5 of the first 6 guys he wouks have had to face has he faced 6 guys, were left handed. That was not the spot to drop him into. With Fulmer and Lieter not used the day before and off today, I feel he could have gone with one of them.  Maybe even Caus. Then maybe use Wesnecki where more righties are coming up. Find a spot in the lineup where there are at least 2 righties scheduled in the first 3 guys he faces. 

I don’t think the strategy was bad with the top of the order coming up.  Morel just had to deliver there, plain and simple.  He’s got a superstar ceiling but he won’t reach it if he’s unwilling to shorten his swing in those situations 

31 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I don’t think the strategy was bad with the top of the order coming up.  Morel just had to deliver there, plain and simple.  He’s got a superstar ceiling but he won’t reach it if he’s unwilling to shorten his swing in those situations 

He shortened his swing quite a bit on strike 3 😄