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    Contract Option Decisions Will Lend Early Insight on Cubs' Offseason Pitching Plans

    While Shota Imanaga's complicated contract option structure is grabbing headlines as Cubs fans look toward the offseason, two more straightforward options worth less money are likely to provide a hint about the team's plans for the winter.

    Matthew Trueblood
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    As the Cubs gear up for a pivotal winter, the first three major decisions they'll need to make are about the three pitchers on whom they hold club options. We've already talked at length about the complex, layered options in Shota Imanaga's deal, whereby the team has to either exercise a three-year, $57-million extension or let Imanaga choose between a $15-million player option and free agency.

    That one looks fairly easy, though, at least in terms of the first move. The Cubs should and will turn down that option, knowing that even if Imanaga elects free agency, they can extend him a qualifying offer, worth about $22 million. Imanaga would be wise to accept that deal, even if he first turns down the $15 million. If he doesn't, Chicago can recoup a draft pick when he signs elsewhere. Since Kyle Tucker is likely to net them an extra pick, too, they'd be amassing long-term assets while clearing money from the payroll, to reinvest elsewhere.

    The two tougher calls are on veteran arms Colin Rea and Andrew Kittredge. The deal to which Chicago signed Rea last winter includes a $6-million club option for 2026, with a $750,000 buyout. Thus, it would cost them just $5.25 million to bring him back. That's solid value, for a pitcher who thrived with the adjustments the Cubs recommended to him and who pitched much more than initially expected for them in 2025. On the other hand, Rea is a low-ceiling hurler. He'll turn 36 next summer, and he's had a strikeout rate below 20% in each of the last two seasons. As we discussed earlier this month, one of the key mandates for the front office this winter is to assemble a staff that will miss more bats. Rea doesn't fit well into that plan.

    Kittredge poses a similar dilemma. He signed a one-year deal with the Orioles last winter, worth $10 million. The first $9 million was paid in 2025, and there's a club option for 2026 worth $9 million, with a $1-million buyout. When the Cubs traded for Kittredge in July, they obtained that option, which ends up being an $8-million decision. Kittredge, too, is 35 years old, but he struck out 30.8% of opposing batters last year—and it was 34.0% with Chicago, after the deal (even including a low-strikeout showing in the postseason). 

    Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Cade Horton can be penciled into next year's starting rotation. In the second half, Justin Steele will join that mix. If he stays healthy and develops the way they hope, Jaxon Wiggins will be a candidate to join the staff during the season, too. The safe bet is that Imanaga will be back with the team in 2026, one way or another. That leaves room for an offseason addition, but it also leaves Rea in a quasi-competition with Javier Assad for a back-end starter or swingman role. The Cubs have to plan for injuries and amass as much depth as possible. Still, it feels as though the call they make on Rea will tell us something about their plans for the offseason. If they keep him, they'll likely look to move on from Assad, or else trade one of Taillon, Boyd and Imanaga.

    The Kittredge option will be even more telling, in an even more direct way. If they retain him, they're almost certainly not going to bring back free agent Brad Keller. If they decline the option on Kittredge, it sends a signal: they're likely to make a strong push to keep Keller, after the breakout season he enjoyed in high-leverage relief for them in 2025. Shortly after the end of the World Series, we'll find out whether the Cubs will have Imanaga, Rea and/or Kittredge on their pitching staff for 2026. That will lend lots of clarity, because the paths forward with or without each hurler become much more defined.

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    Pedro Ramirez

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    On Thursday, the 22-year-old went 4-for-6with his fifth home run and five RBI. He also stole his 6th and 7th bases. In 16 games, he's hitting .328 (1.026 OPS).

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    Featured Comments

    Bertz

    Posted

    Rea reminds me of Tauchman last year.  "$3M for a high end fourth outfielder is an easy yes!  Sure he doesn't fit on the roster anymore but you can easily get a little something back in trade!"  Then I had to clean the egg off my face as he got nontendered and had to take a pay cut to latch on with the White Sox.

    $6M for a solid 4th/5th starter is on its face a positive expected value contract.  That said if the team is wanting to let Tucker walk and level up the pitching staff (which is certainly where the vibes point) you probably care more about that roster spot than the $2-3M in surplus value Rea's club option theoretically affords you.

    It's not a slam dunk, but I'm going to view the Rea decision as a tea leaf for whether the team is planning to put its resources primarily towards offense or pitching this winter.

    Arlen

    Posted

    I don't quite understand what people see as very special in Kittredge. On the other hand, to me, Collin Rea seems to be pitching better than he ever has.

    Named After Maddux

    Posted

    Not necessarily what I’d do but I believe it’s going to be

    Shōta: decline

    Kittredge: decline

    Rea: accept

    • Featured Comment
    Jason Ross

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Arlen said:

    I don't quite understand what people see as very special in Kittredge. On the other hand, to me, Collin Rea seems to be pitching better than he ever has.

    Only Mason Miller was a better reliever per xFIP in baseball post deadline. His slider hits very real markers for being elite; he throws it over 90mph pretty often (an important decider) and has a +shape on it. He is in the 100th percentile in chase rate while also being in the 90th percentile for K and walk rate - this means he's throwing an elite velo slider as unhittable pitches, and yet getting extreme amounts of swing. He gets great whiff, but even when hitters do make contact, it's a nothing burger usually. The slider had an xwOBA of .207 on the year - 16th in the league. It as 9th in run value. 

    The Cubs also did some tweaks on location of that pitch to suggest that he made a legit jump in the 2nd half. 

    If you don't believe he's the second best reliever in baseball moving forward - me either! That said, I think he's a legitimate back end reliever for 2026 for a contending team. 

    • Like 1
    Bertz

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Named After Maddux said:

    Not necessarily what I’d do but I believe it’s going to be

    Shōta: decline

    Kittredge: decline

    Rea: accept

    I hope you're wrong on Kittredge.  I just don't see a situation where it makes sense to let him leave.

    The team probably needs 3, maybe even 4 relievers this winter?  And that's legit guys not waiver wire types.  Especially knowing how much Jed turns his nose up at multi-year deals for relievers, you're not going to find a better deal than Kittredge at 1/8.

     

    If the team is wanting to fill the bullpen on a shoestring, Kittredge plus a couple Caleb Thielbar sized signings is probably the way to go about it.  If the team is wanting to invest in the pen more this year, then 1/8 isn’t really prohibitive as one of two or dare I say even three signinhs of guys at this level.

    Letting Kittredge go feels like mystery box thinking where we end up with like Emilio Pagan instead.

    • Like 1
    Jason Ross

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

    I hope you're wrong on Kittredge.  I just don't see a situation where it makes sense to let him leave.

    The team probably needs 3, maybe even 4 relievers this winter?  And that's legit guys not waiver wire types.  Especially knowing how much Jed turns his nose up at multi-year deals for relievers, you're not going to find a better deal than Kittredge at 1/8.

     

    If the team is wanting to fill the bullpen on a shoestring, Kittredge plus a couple Caleb Thielbar sized signings is probably the way to go about it.  If the team is wanting to invest in the pen more this year, then 1/8 isn’t really prohibitive as one of two or dare I say even three signinhs of guys at this level.

    Letting Kittredge go feels like mystery box thinking where we end up with like Emilio Pagan instead.

    Fully agree here! I'm entirely in the "just pick up Kittredge" boat. He makes about what the Cubs paid on 1 year deals with Neris and Pressly, and while I don't want to completely trash those two, there were at least some signs with both that could have made you squint as to future issues (obviously we know the outcomes). Kittredge just got better. They need basically an entire back end of the BP right now sans Palencia, and I think Kittredge is a slam dunk. 

    Illiterate Scholar

    Posted

    Mooney and Sharma seem pretty confident they will decline the Kittredge option which surprises me

    Arlen

    Posted

    17 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

    Only Mason Miller was a better reliever per xFIP in baseball post deadline. His slider hits very real markers for being elite; he throws it over 90mph pretty often (an important decider) and has a +shape on it. He is in the 100th percentile in chase rate while also being in the 90th percentile for K and walk rate - this means he's throwing an elite velo slider as unhittable pitches, and yet getting extreme amounts of swing. He gets great whiff, but even when hitters do make contact, it's a nothing burger usually. The slider had an xwOBA of .207 on the year - 16th in the league. It as 9th in run value. 

    The Cubs also did some tweaks on location of that pitch to suggest that he made a legit jump in the 2nd half. 

    If you don't believe he's the second best reliever in baseball moving forward - me either! That said, I think he's a legitimate back end reliever for 2026 for a contending team. 

    Just didn't see it in the results, compared to Keller, for example. Not when it counted bigly.

    Jason Ross

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Arlen said:

    Just didn't see it in the results, compared to Keller, for example. Not when it counted bigly.

    I mean, Andrew Kittredge was literally the second best RP in baseball beyond the deadline based on xFIP. If you're not seeing it in the results, you're not really looking, then. It's blatantly obvious. 

    If you want to point to playoff production, then you're falling for recency and small sample bias. If we're doing that, then Fernando Tatis Jr, Steven Kwan, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper all suck too. The problem is we objectively know they don't suck and like 15 PA's doesn't define a player. Just like whatever it is you think you saw in the playoffs from Kittredge isn't some glaring signal either.

    Again, I'm not trying to say Andrew Kittredge is the second best RP as we head into 2026. But he is likely one of the better right handed options in baseball, is among a very small group of very good RP's in baseball, and any legitimate contending team in 2026 would be happy to have him pitching in high leverage situations. 



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