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    BREAKING: Cubs Sign Third Baseman Alex Bregman to Five-Year Deal

    The Cubs got their man this time. With the largest annual average value in team history and the long-term, no-opt-out structure they craved last winter, they’ve signed Alex Bregman.

    Matthew Trueblood
    Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Imagesan F

    Cubs Video

    The Chicago Cubs and third baseman Alex Bregman have agreed to a five year, $175-million deal, sources confirmed to North Side Baseball. 

    Bregman, who will turn 32 in March, gets the largest AAV in Cubs history, at $35 million. The deal spares the team from having to spread money out into Bregman's late 30s and early 40s, though it almost guarantees that they will surpass the competitive-balance tax threshold for 2026—and perhaps years to come.
     
    In exchange for that, the Cubs get a player who fits their offensive philosophy perfectly. Bregman makes exceptionally good swing decisions and has run superb contact rates almost throughout his career. He lacks high-end bat speed, but creates power by excelling at pulling the ball in the air. He also plays a sturdy third base, and his arrival carries interesting implications for Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner.
     
    Things were very different for Bregman this year, untethered from the qualifying offer but one year older and with a platform season in which he hit brilliantly early, got hurt, then struggled at times in the second half. Instead of being open to flexible structures and locking in on deals that offered him quick paths back to free agency, Bregman and agent Scott Boras sought a lucrative long-term deal. The Red Sox, who wooed Bregman with a deferral structure and multiple opt-outs last winter, were willing to go longer than the Cubs in terms of years, but refused to pay the high AAV the Cubs offered.
     
    Once he landed Edward Cabrera in a trade earlier this week, Hoyer got permission from ownership to exceed the CBT threshold in order to sign either Bregman or Bo Bichette, a source familiar with the team's plans said. That allowed Chicago to scale up its offer to Bregman, and helped them land the player they hoped would be the capstone to their offseason last year.
     
    In 10 big-league seasons, Bregman has had an on-base percentage under .350 just twice: in 2016 and in 2024. After being in the Astros organization for nearly a decade, he signed with the Red Sox in February and batted .273/.360/.462 in 495 plate appearances. That marked his highest slugging average since 2019, and with the deep well at Wrigley Field replacing the Green Monster in left field for his home games this year, don't expect him to slug as much for the Cubs. However, he adds a much-needed right-handed threat to their lineup, and will spend lots of time hitting between Michael Busch and Ian Happ or Moisés Ballesteros, giving the Cubs terrific lineup depth and balance.
     
    With Bregman locked up (and locked in, with a full no-trade clause, a source said), the team's infield is in for a shakeup. Dansby Swanson will be the shortstop for at least another year or two, but Matt Shaw has been displaced from the lineup. That could be a temporary change, with Nico Hoerner a free agent after 2026, but it could also prove to be permanent. Bregman is likely to stay at third base. Shaw could slide to second if Hoerner is traded, but the team could also plan to rotate him in as a backup at both second and third (with Hoerner sometimes spelling Swanson at shortstop) and/or to use Bregman as the designated hitter on a semi-regular basis, especially against left-handed pitchers.
     
    The ramifications of the deal will spread out and become clearer in the weeks ahead. For now, what we can say for sure is that the Cubs are serious about challenging the Brewers in the NL Central—and in 2026, they might just overtake them.

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    Featured Comments

    Transmogrified Tiger

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

    Most FAs sign for 6-8M per WAR.

    They very much do not, market rate is a bit north of 10 million/WAR

    Cuzi

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    They very much do not, market rate is a bit north of 10 million/WAR

    It's not, but ok.

    Bertz

    Posted

    Man his team is gonna win a lot of games.  It doesn't have an ace or a cleanup hitter who's an Avengers level threat like Ohtani or Judge or Skubal, but god damn it's loaded with good players and even the very back end of the roster is quality situational guys.

    • Like 1
    Brian707

    Posted

    Now launch Shaw into the sun for all i care. Go Cubs, great signing.  Go Bears

    • Like 2
    • Disagree 3
    • Love 3
    Derwood

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

    It's not, but ok.

    Might want to check the numbers on Cease, Alonso, etc.

    Tangled Up in Plaid

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Derwood said:

    Might want to check the numbers on Cease, Alonso, etc.

    Checking won't fit his narrative.

    Cuzi

    Posted (edited)

    1 minute ago, Derwood said:

    Might want to check the numbers on Cease, Alonso, etc.

    Cease signed for 8 on the dot.

    I've already compared this to Alonsos deal.

    Edited by Cuzi
    • Like 1
    Bertz

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

    I know there are going to be many skeptical. But here's the thing: the team who we call claim doesn't give a horsefeathers just gave a horsefeathers enough to go over the LT for a player. 

    That tells us something in the models we have doesn't match up with the models the Cubs have. 

    I suspect there's a little bit of a manual bump for makeup, a little bit of pricing in not having to give up the draft pick, and a little bit of bidding more aggressively to prevent a situation like last year where theyre left holding the bag from happening again.

    • Like 1
    NorthsideAvenger

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

    Theyre already over, why not bring in Bellinger now and really make a splash 

    Agreed. Will Jed/Tom do it? I hope they do. 

    chibears55

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

    Agreed. Will Jed/Tom do it? I hope they do. 

    Bregman Tucker Reunion 😁

    • Haha 1
    Derwood

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

    Cease signed for 8 on the dot.

    I've already compared this to Alonsos deal.

    Cease has 21 career fWAR and signed for $30M AAV. 

    mk49

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

    Bregman Tucker Reunion 😁

    That will be perfect!

    Cuzi

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

    Cease has 21 career fWAR and signed for $30M AAV. 

    No one uses career WAR when calculating dollar per WAR.

    He's been a 3-4 WAR pitcher for 5 straight years. Put up 3.4 last year and his contract is for $27M AAV. Divide 27 by 3.4. Tell me what you get.

    • Like 1
    Jason Ross

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

    I suspect there's a little bit of a manual bump for makeup, a little bit of pricing in not having to give up the draft pick, and a little bit of bidding more aggressively to prevent a situation like last year where theyre left holding the bag from happening again.

    For better or worse it feels like the Hoyer version of Jon Lester. Or at least what they hope is that. 

    Derwood

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

    No one uses career WAR when calculating dollar per WAR.

    He's been a 3-4 WAR pitcher for 5 straight years. Put up 3.4 last year and his contract is for $27M AAV. Divide 27 by 3.4. Tell me what you get.

    He signed 7/$210, which is $30/year. 

    ToolDRT

    Posted (edited)

    I’m struggling to see why Jed seems so obsessed with Bregman. Hope it works. If it doesn’t? I fear it scares tom and Jed off more from high money deals. 

    Edited by ToolDRT
    Cuzi

    Posted

    Just now, Derwood said:

    He signed 7/$210, which is $30/year. 

    Get back to me when you actually look at his contract.

    Transmogrified Tiger

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

    No one uses career WAR when calculating dollar per WAR.

    He's been a 3-4 WAR pitcher for 5 straight years. Put up 3.4 last year and his contract is for $27M AAV. Divide 27 by 3.4. Tell me what you get.

    No one expects Cease to put up nearly 25 WAR over his deal, if they did he would've gotten another 50 million.  The market rate for FA is not dividing AAV by last year or this year's projected WAR, it's about expectations for the entirety of the contract which will inevitably have age-related decline in long term deals(never mind injury risk, especially for pitchers).

    • Like 1
    Cuzi

    Posted (edited)

    17 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    No one expects Cease to put up nearly 25 WAR over his deal, if they did he would've gotten another 50 million.  The market rate for FA is not dividing AAV by last year or this year's projected WAR, it's about expectations for the entirety of the contract which will inevitably have age-related decline in long term deals(never mind injury risk, especially for pitchers).

    Use projected WAR then. Cease is projected at 3.8. Guess what? That's 7.1.

    Fangraphs latest article on the study ended in 2022 and was trending down with $8.5M being the number for '22. So to sit here and say the market rate is a little over 10 is delusional.

    Here is a recent article using Fangraphs numbers.

    https://www.paraballnotes.com/blog/dollar-per-war-2025-2026

    Last year it was 7.8.

    No where near a tick over 10.

    Edited by Cuzi
    KCCub

    Posted

    At the end of the day, Bregman needs around 20 fWAR over his 5 years to hit value. All that matters is Jed and company believe he’ll land close to that with their internal projections. 

    Transmogrified Tiger

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

    Use projected WAR then. Cease is projected at 3.8. Guess what? That's 7.1.

    Fangraphs latest article on the study ended in 2022 and was trending down with $8.5M being the number for '22. So to sit here and say the market rate is a little over 10 is delusional.

    Again, that is not how $/WAR works.  You don't just take the first year of the deal and assume that's the productivity for the entirety of it.  You need to discount for age and injury, especially for a pitcher and a deal as long as Cease's. 

    • Like 2
    Cuzi

    Posted

    Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    Again, that is not how $/WAR works.  You don't just take the first year of the deal and assume that's the productivity for the entirety of it.  You need to discount for age and injury, especially for a pitcher and a deal as long as Cease's. 

    You seem to make up your own rules for how it works. Meanwhile the studies on it don't agree with you.

    • Disagree 3
    javy knows my name

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

    You seem to make up your own rules for how it works. Meanwhile the studies on it don't agree with you.

    Smug and wrong is just the worst look.

    I'd give the chances that you understand a single baseball thing better than TT <1%

    • Like 5
    BKHoo

    Posted

    GREAT CHICAGO SPORTS NIGHT. 

     

    The Cubs are spending like a big market team. Who knew?

    bukie

    Posted

     

    • Disagree 2
    • Haha 17
    • Love 1



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