A Kyle Tucker Reset Will Make Way for Owen Caissie

Look at all those 0's.  Tucker is just one part of a massive problem.  

As I said from the start of the season, Tucker was a very slight upgrade over Belli. I was wrong. Belli is the upgrade over Tucker. He can play 4 positions well. His year thus far has been better. Hoyer, who got an undeserved extension is to blame. Giving up 2 good players and possibly a third in Hayden W. plus paying the Yanks $5 million. to take Belli was ridiculous. We could have used that package (many teams wanted Paredes) to get a SP.  I would not extend Tucker now, even if he has a good rest of the year. Boras will make too many demands and we have some good OF prospects, not just Cassie and Alcantara, who will be inexpensive and allow us more room in free agency.

The reset for Tuck should've came against Cincinnati or Pittsburgh so he may have turned it around before the Brewer series. The mixed signals from CC and Jed, lack of a significant starting pitcher at the deadline, and continued slumps from PCA and Seiya indicates how flat and unemotional the club is playing.

The sooner the Hoyer/Hawkins "unemotional approach to player acquisition and development" and the asinine over-reliance on useless analytics and metrics is a thing of the past, the sooner the organization can return, or get to, a level of reasonable.  This is what you get when you build a team based on math and predictive models.  This organization is bereft of difference makers at both the MLB and MILB level.  It's going to be quite painful to watch this play out in the next several years.  Quite painful.

6 minutes ago, DK1230 said:

The sooner the Hoyer/Hawkins "unemotional approach to player acquisition and development" and the asinine over-reliance on useless analytics and metrics is a thing of the past, the sooner the organization can return, or get to, a level of reasonable.  This is what you get when you build a team based on math and predictive models.  This organization is bereft of difference makers at both the MLB and MILB level.  It's going to be quite painful to watch this play out in the next several years.  Quite painful.

Milwaukee is built the same way. Cut the crap. Every team is building the same way. How do you guys not realize this? 

56 minutes ago, Victor Reichman said:

As I said from the start of the season, Tucker was a very slight upgrade over Belli. I was wrong. Belli is the upgrade over Tucker. He can play 4 positions well. His year thus far has been better. Hoyer, who got an undeserved extension is to blame. Giving up 2 good players and possibly a third in Hayden W. plus paying the Yanks $5 million. to take Belli was ridiculous. We could have used that package (many teams wanted Paredes) to get a SP.  I would not extend Tucker now, even if he has a good rest of the year. Boras will make too many demands and we have some good OF prospects, not just Cassie and Alcantara, who will be inexpensive and allow us more room in free agency.

 

 

 

 

He's not a Boras client. Do some research before you post.

1 hour ago, Victor Reichman said:

As I said from the start of the season, Tucker was a very slight upgrade over Belli. I was wrong. Belli is the upgrade over Tucker. He can play 4 positions well. His year thus far has been better. Hoyer, who got an undeserved extension is to blame. Giving up 2 good players and possibly a third in Hayden W. plus paying the Yanks $5 million. to take Belli was ridiculous. We could have used that package (many teams wanted Paredes) to get a SP.  I would not extend Tucker now, even if he has a good rest of the year. Boras will make too many demands and we have some good OF prospects, not just Cassie and Alcantara, who will be inexpensive and allow us more room in free agency.

 

 

 

 

tucker has still had a better year than bellinger even with his prolonged slump

Found this link on reddit on a Tucker discussion (spoilers because it's massive).

This is since July 3rd, guessing you could probably make it look better or worse by playing with the starting point. For me, it shows a few things are true.

1. This is a results based business and his results have been absolutely terrible, and the time off is probably the best move for his own sanity (and everyone else's, seemingly).
2. He is simultaneously not performing anywhere near what expectations for him are, and also getting very, very unlucky.
3. To the extent you buy into xwOBA (your mileage may vary), Kyle Tucker in the (likely) worst slump of his career has expected batted ball metrics that are basically on par with what you'd expect Ian Happ or PCA (or a 2025 Cody Bellinger) to do (understanding those are different paths to the same overall, .335/.340ish wOBA outcome), and that's before his 30 SB pace and his passable corner outfield defense. Throw in a likely injury, and if this is the floor....it's a pretty appealing overall package. 

2 hours ago, Victor Reichman said:

As I said from the start of the season, Tucker was a very slight upgrade over Belli. I was wrong. Belli is the upgrade over Tucker. He can play 4 positions well. His year thus far has been better. Hoyer, who got an undeserved extension is to blame. Giving up 2 good players and possibly a third in Hayden W. plus paying the Yanks $5 million. to take Belli was ridiculous. We could have used that package (many teams wanted Paredes) to get a SP.  I would not extend Tucker now, even if he has a good rest of the year. Boras will make too many demands and we have some good OF prospects, not just Cassie and Alcantara, who will be inexpensive and allow us more room in free agency.

1 hour ago, DK1230 said:

The sooner the Hoyer/Hawkins "unemotional approach to player acquisition and development" and the asinine over-reliance on useless analytics and metrics is a thing of the past, the sooner the organization can return, or get to, a level of reasonable.  This is what you get when you build a team based on math and predictive models.  This organization is bereft of difference makers at both the MLB and MILB level.  It's going to be quite painful to watch this play out in the next several years.  Quite painful.

I've read a lot of really dumb posts on this board in the 20+ years I've been here but these are both Top 100 prospects on the list.

2 hours ago, DK1230 said:

The sooner the Hoyer/Hawkins "unemotional approach to player acquisition and development" and the asinine over-reliance on useless analytics and metrics is a thing of the past, the sooner the organization can return, or get to, a level of reasonable.  This is what you get when you build a team based on math and predictive models.  This organization is bereft of difference makers at both the MLB and MILB level.  It's going to be quite painful to watch this play out in the next several years.  Quite painful.

This is much the way the Colorado Rockies are run. They are run on vibes and emotional attachments to players. They are the least analytical of any organization. We can see this very clearly in how they are poorly developing their former top-10 prospect in Chase Dollander. Dollander has been terrible, and I know your initial reaction is going to be "Well it's Coors". No, it's because they've messed with his pitch mix to a degree that it runs on negligence and ignorant of advanced metrics and pitches. He's throwing sinkers to LHH (a big no-no for RHP). He has relied on a loopy breaking ball too often instead of adding velocity. This is basic pitch design in modern 2025 baseball.

You want an emotional attachment to players? Heading into the deadline in 2022, the Rockies, a team with no shot at the playoffs, had a 37 year old closer in Daniel Bard having a career year. He was a free agent at years end. Easiest sell decision of all time. Did they trade him? Nope! The Rockies resigned him to a two year contract. The Rockies finished with 68 wins this season.  Go figure that didn't work out. Bard was bad and ended up retiring, and haven't even sniffed the playoffs since.

"Maybe that's a one year thing" you say! Well, how about Jon Gray? The Rockies in 2021 (yes, just the year prior to Bard)  enter the deadline a bad team and with Jon Gray on his last year of his contract. Gray is having a good year, he'll be in demand. The Rockies should trade Gray, get something for him. Nope, the Rockies pass, instead they keep him. "Well, they'll just offer him a QO, he won't accept and they'll get a draft pick". Rockies declined offering a QO, and they got nothing. Zip. Zilch. They got nothing. They finished with 74 wins. They learned nothing from this as they absolutely boned the Bard decision the following year.

You may correctly point out that the Rockies are under new management currently, but remember, this is the same management running Dollander into the ground, and the guy they hired was the assistant GM under the previous one. There has been no analytical shift and the Rockies remain one of the worst orgs in sports. At one point they had spent half a billion in FA and got negative fWAR out of players like Geradlo Perra and other overspends. 

I for one would rather not run on vibes and emotions. None of this is to suggest Hoyers approach is perfect, I think the Cubs bungled the deadline in many ways, for example. However, the conclusion should not be "less analytics". The last few weeks have been a bummer, but the Cubs currently have a 96.9% chance to make the playoffs. Sounds a lot better than the Rockies' vibes and their 0.0% at making the post-season, no?

     I can't seem to recall the year, but it seems to me somewhere in the mid 70's we saw this movie before. A strong season from April to June followed by a complete collapse in the second half of the season. This time it really has not been a total collapse, frustrating to be sure, but the team has been treading water albeit at an under .500 pace while the Brewers have been hotter than the sun. When you have a lineup like the Cubs with several hitters who are above the norm you expect periodically that individually one will fall into a slump here and there. Nowhere do you expect the entire lineup to go into the tank for an extended period. What makes it even more frustrating is that the starting pitching has been top notch, only adding to where you think this team could be if the offense wasn't so anemic currently. And then of course you have the trade deadline. All the talk of Hoyer making a gigantic splash at the end of the deadline bringing aboard a big stick and probably a couple of top notch arms. In the event, the Big Splash was hardly a ripple. I think this not only frustrates fans, but players as well. We already have seen our division lead evaporate, and I think we are kidding ourselves that we have a shot at righting the ship and catching the Brewers. Unless of course they start to tank and we grab a hunk of the sun as well. I know we are sitting ok for a wildcard spot, but that too can evaporate if the team continues to play at this level. I think Tucker's woes are part of the problem, but definitely not the whole enchilada. Still a fan here, and still paying attention to the games, but my early season elation has been replaced with frustration.

5 hours ago, Victor Reichman said:

As I said from the start of the season, Tucker was a very slight upgrade over Belli. I was wrong. Belli is the upgrade over Tucker. He can play 4 positions well. His year thus far has been better. Hoyer, who got an undeserved extension is to blame. Giving up 2 good players and possibly a third in Hayden W. plus paying the Yanks $5 million. to take Belli was ridiculous. We could have used that package (many teams wanted Paredes) to get a SP.  I would not extend Tucker now, even if he has a good rest of the year. Boras will make too many demands and we have some good OF prospects, not just Cassie and Alcantara, who will be inexpensive and allow us more room in free agency.

 

 

 

 

Victor: this take is crazy. If you're really itchy to blame the Cubs for this, the way to do it is to question whether their poor development/instruction infrastructure at the big-league level is a major factor in Tucker running into this roadblock. But Kyle Tucker is a much better baseball player than Cody Bellinger; you're not going to find anyone credible who'd take Bellinger over him, or who would even regard it as especially close.

1 hour ago, Billy62 said:

     I can't seem to recall the year, but it seems to me somewhere in the mid 70's we saw this movie before. A strong season from April to June followed by a complete collapse in the second half of the season. This time it really has not been a total collapse, frustrating to be sure, but the team has been treading water albeit at an under .500 pace while the Brewers have been hotter than the sun. When you have a lineup like the Cubs with several hitters who are above the norm you expect periodically that individually one will fall into a slump here and there. Nowhere do you expect the entire lineup to go into the tank for an extended period. What makes it even more frustrating is that the starting pitching has been top notch, only adding to where you think this team could be if the offense wasn't so anemic currently. And then of course you have the trade deadline. All the talk of Hoyer making a gigantic splash at the end of the deadline bringing aboard a big stick and probably a couple of top notch arms. In the event, the Big Splash was hardly a ripple. I think this not only frustrates fans, but players as well. We already have seen our division lead evaporate, and I think we are kidding ourselves that we have a shot at righting the ship and catching the Brewers. Unless of course they start to tank and we grab a hunk of the sun as well. I know we are sitting ok for a wildcard spot, but that too can evaporate if the team continues to play at this level. I think Tucker's woes are part of the problem, but definitely not the whole enchilada. Still a fan here, and still paying attention to the games, but my early season elation has been replaced with frustration.

For my part, I've been trying to ensure we're all clear on the fact that they're NOT catching the Brewers. I agree that any notion of doing so is delusional.

The year you're thinking of, by the by, is 1977. I think they started 47-22 that year and still managed to finish 81-81.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-tucker-needs-a-break/

Couple parts that I liked:

This makes sense for three reasons. First, the Cubs are all but locked into a wild card spot. After Monday’s games, they had a 92.5% chance of being a wild card team, a 4.2% chance of winning the division, and a 3.3% chance of missing the playoffs altogether. There is very little to gain by sprinting to the finish over the last six weeks of the season, and equally little to lose by giving a struggling player a chance to catch his breath.

....

Tucker also has a 58.5% pull rate in August, which is the highest single-month mark of his entire career. This despite the declining bat speed. My hypothesis is that he can sense that he’s down a tick of power and/or bat speed and is trying to get out in front of the ball to compensate. The result is a 2.10 GB/FB ratio for one of the most fly ball-happy hitters in the league. (This part especially made sense to my dumb, lefty, played baseball growing up mind)

...

Tucker could’ve been leaping tall buildings in a single bound for the past two months and Milwaukee would still have the NL Central locked up.

17 hours ago, squally1313 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-tucker-needs-a-break/

Couple parts that I liked:

This makes sense for three reasons. First, the Cubs are all but locked into a wild card spot. After Monday’s games, they had a 92.5% chance of being a wild card team, a 4.2% chance of winning the division, and a 3.3% chance of missing the playoffs altogether. There is very little to gain by sprinting to the finish over the last six weeks of the season, and equally little to lose by giving a struggling player a chance to catch his breath.

....

Tucker also has a 58.5% pull rate in August, which is the highest single-month mark of his entire career. This despite the declining bat speed. My hypothesis is that he can sense that he’s down a tick of power and/or bat speed and is trying to get out in front of the ball to compensate. The result is a 2.10 GB/FB ratio for one of the most fly ball-happy hitters in the league. (This part especially made sense to my dumb, lefty, played baseball growing up mind)

...

Tucker could’ve been leaping tall buildings in a single bound for the past two months and Milwaukee would still have the NL Central locked up.

 

I'll disagree with that last part.  If the Cubs had gone 23-13 instead of 19-18 over the stretch of games before this series, they're sitting at 77-50 and 2 games out right now with a real shot at the division regardless of the outcome later today.  They've lost 7 games in that stretch by 1 or 2 runs and you can't tell me a healthy Tucker doesn't hit a homer or 3 to make a difference in a few of those.

Anyway, with the Tucker reset, at least it gets us a glimpse into the future. I believe it very doubtful if the Cubs bring Tucker back next season, and so far the early returns on Caisie are encouraging. I don't believe for a second that the teams woes are all on Tucker, although many seem to want to jump on that bandwagon. Yes, he has not produced going on two months now, but he is not alone. Suzuki, Happ, PCA, even Kelly have been cold to lukewarm for a while now. But, if this series is an indicator, I sense that the bats might be waking up a bit.