Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA Project Cubs A Distant Second in NL Central

1 hour ago, Matt Trueblood said:

Baseball Prospectus has rolled out the first complete version of their PECOTA projections for 2024, and they don't shine a kind light on the Cubs, pending further additions.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

In the first PECOTA-projected standings for the coming season, the Cubs sit five full games back of the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals. Betting markets have held up Chicago as favorites in the relatively weak NL Central for most of the winter, but crucially, those lines bake in a certain set of weighted expectations for the balance of the offseason. In other words, all the bettors pushing the odds in the Cubs' favor throughout this process have been assuming that Jed Hoyer and company will improve the team, even from here.

Pure projection systems like PECOTA make no such guesses. The players not yet signed are simply value floating in the abyss, and teams get the records their current rosters support, based on projected performance. At the moment, despite their lousy 2023, the Cardinals impress that system the most. That makes sense, too. While the Cards have traded a couple small pieces (remember the Tyler O'Neill deal?) this winter, they've spent most of it making modest additions to a starting rotation that was their greatest weakness last year. They are the most complete team in the division. PECOTA forecasts 85.2 wins for them, and just 80 for the second-place Cubs.

In one sense, that's generous, because the system does (at least) see the current Cubs as the head of the class of losing teams in a losing division. The Brewers and Reds are each projected for 78 wins, and the Pirates are all the way down at 73. The Shota Imanaga and Héctor Neris signings and the Michael Busch and Yency Almonte trades have moved the needle at least that much, although maybe we should say, instead, that the Corbin Burnes trade did so. The Brewers were projected as clear leaders for second place before they gave up Burnes. At any rate, what the system doesn't yet see from the Cubs is that same level of completeness--that marriage of depth and excellence that make a playoff-caliber team.

Yes, signing Cody Bellinger would help with that. Bellinger is projected for a 101 DRC+ (where 100 is league-average and higher is better), which certainly sounds underwhelming coming off a season in which that number was 112, but he still has 2.6 projected WARP, and his bat would be a notable upgrade from Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is projected for just an 87 DRC+. That only makes up a portion of the gap between the Cubs and Cards, though, so barring multiple significant moves, the system thinks the Cardinals are better. 

That needn't shatter the hopes of any fans, on its own. The Cardinals feel like the kind of team you'd build to win a game that was only a projection system. They're old, and they have established stars with long track records of success. That's the kind of player projection systems tend to overrate, so it's possible St. Louis won't really improve on their woeful 2023 as much as PECOTA thinks. The Cubs, meanwhile, are leaning on players (late-blooming ace Justin Steele, NPB import Shota Imanaga, rookies Busch and Jordan Wicks, and more) on whom a projection system might hedge, to a greater degree than are the Cardinals. Projections aren't destiny; they're just data.

On the other hand, we should regard it as telling that the Cardinals not only have an advantage on the Cubs, but lead them by a handful of games. That's how an inherently conservative framework like a projection system tells you that there's a yawning gap between two teams. Despite listing them second, the system only gives Chicago a 20.2-percent chance to win the Central. It's possible for the Cubs to outplay the Cardinals this season, but without at least one or two upgrades for the roster, it won't be likely.

Happily, it's not too late to make those upgrades. In addition to Bellinger, the market contains the likes of Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and J.D. Martinez, all of whom could be good fits at the right price. It contains. too, a handful of interesting or helpful pitchers. That's good, because PECOTA regards run prevention as the greater problem for the team. The Cubs are projected to allow 57 more runs than the Brewers and 33 more than the Cardinals. These standings are an open and earnest invitation to the Cubs to get more aggressive, because they need to get better to position themselves against St. Louis and they already have an edge on each of the other teams who could try to unseat the Cardinals. 

There will be other projection system rollouts this month, and the systems will all be updated accordingly when roster moves happen. At the moment, though, the Cubs aren't good enough to go any further than they did in 2023.

 

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While I think PECOTA might be a little off in win totals, I can see the Cardinals listed slightly about the Cubs. Not 5 wins better however. But more than that, I don’t see the Cardinals giving up less runs than the Cubs. If the Cardinals are going to be better than the Cubs it is because they will outscore them, not limit runs against, IMO. 

2 hours ago, Matt Trueblood said:

The Cardinals feel like the kind of team you'd build to win a game that was only a projection system. They're old, and they have established stars with long track records of success.

I think this is the money quote right here, and why I'm not worried about the Cardinals.  They have almost no prime age talent on their roster.  It's Nootbar, Gorman, Edman, and a couple relievers.  Everyone else is old or *very* young and inexperienced.

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That's good, because PECOTA regards run prevention as the greater problem for the team. The Cubs are projected to allow 57 more runs than the Brewers and 33 more than the Cardinals.

This feels way off with regard to the Cardinals.  They have 2 36+ year old pitchers slated for their rotation coming off bad years and very little depth.  Sure, they added a bunch of pen arms but their rotation last year was bad and they basically replaced Montgomery with Gray and Wainwright with Lynn, which should be about comparable overall.  I find it really hard to believe this part of the projections ends up accurate, especially with Counsell managing the Cubs pen and Marmol still a significant question mark.

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In the first PECOTA-projected standings for the coming season, the Cubs sit five full games back of the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals.

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think this is the money quote right here, and why I'm not worried about the Cardinals.  They have almost no prime age talent on their roster.  It's Nootbar, Gorman, Edman, and a couple relievers.  Everyone else is old or *very* young and inexperienced.

Expanding on this.  Number of starting players from each Central team going into their age 24-30 season (not bothering to look at relievers):

Cards (4) - Gorman, Nootbar, Edman, Donovan 

Brewers (7) - Contreras, Turang, Ortiz, Adames, Frelick, Peralta, Hall (?)

Pirates (8) - Davis, Tellez, Cruz, Hayes, Reynolds, Suwinski, Keller, Ortiz

Reds (10) - Stephenson, Candelario, McLain, Steer, Friedl, Benson, CES, Greene, Ashcraft, Abbott 

Cubs (10) - Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Madrigal, Happ, Suzuki, Morel, Steele, Imanaga, Wicks  (Bellinger would add another; Amaya overtaking Gomes would add another)

Honestly looking at depth charts to compile this reinforces how cooked the Cards are.  At least one of the Cubs/Reds/Brewers will get strong collective development from their kids and blow past them.

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Expanding on this.  Number of starting players from each Central team going into their age 24-30 season (not bothering to look at relievers):

Cards (4) - Gorman, Nootbar, Edman, Donovan 

Brewers (7) - Contreras, Turang, Ortiz, Adames, Frelick, Peralta, Hall (?)

Pirates (8) - Davis, Tellez, Cruz, Hayes, Reynolds, Suwinski, Keller, Ortiz

Reds (10) - Stephenson, Candelario, McLain, Steer, Friedl, Benson, CES, Greene, Ashcraft, Abbott 

Cubs (10) - Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Madrigal, Happ, Suzuki, Morel, Steele, Imanaga, Wicks  (Bellinger would add another; Amaya overtaking Gomes would add another)

Honestly looking at depth charts to compile this reinforces how cooked the Cards are.  At least one of the Cubs/Reds/Brewers will get strong collective development from their kids and blow past them.

are you missing Jordan Walker or do you think he won't be starting?

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

are you missing Jordan Walker or do you think he won't be starting?

He said 24-30, Walker was excluded on the other side of his point, which is that they are supplementing the Olds with some very raw talent, which I think Walker still qualifies as given his age (21) and his 0.2 fWAR in 465 PAs last year 

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

He said 24-30, Walker was excluded on the other side of his point, which is that they are supplementing the Olds with some very raw talent, which I think Walker still qualifies as given his age (21) and his 0.2 fWAR in 465 PAs last year 

I had no idea he was so young. I thought he was 23 last year. 

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I had no idea he was so young. I thought he was 23 last year. 

Thr most glaring thing to me is PECOTA suggesting the Cardinals will allow fewer runs. I don’t see that at all. 

22 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Thr most glaring thing to me is PECOTA suggesting the Cardinals will allow fewer runs. I don’t see that at all. 

Yeah.  Our pitching was average last year and theirs was terrible.   Neither team is much improved.  Cards swapping Montgomery for Gray is a modest improvement but not enough.

They're projecting we score 50 fewer runs and give up 50 more than last year.  That's a bit odd.

80 projected wins.   Go Cubs

Dead cat bounce for the Cardinals in that they gave Wainwright 21 almost entirely uncompetitive starts in his quest to get to 200 wins after they dropped out of contention. Having said that, agreed with most of the above...team is designed to project well. It's the Cardinals, so they'll maybe find some way to stay healthy and have the hard hit balls land on the track instead of over the wall, but they are definitely going to need to thread the needle a little bit. This is also a really expensive team for their standards already, and that's with the Sonny Gray contract backloaded. 

FG released projected standings today, Cubs at 81.5 wins, Cards at 84.4. If we can turn this rumored $30m into 3 wins, should put us at the top.