AVG v. OBP

[Tracer Bullet]

From a Q&A session with Carrie Muskat:

 

Why do the Cubs have a good team batting average but fall short of scoring runs, and why is the batting average against Cubs pitchers low, but not the team's ERA? What can a manager do to work on correcting this? -- Drew H., Goshen, Ind.

 

The Cubs are getting plenty of hits, but not when there are runners on base. They lead the National League in average, but rank seventh in runs scored, and are batting .262 with runners in scoring position. They also don't do the little things, like moving runners over to get them into scoring position. The Cubs' pitchers walk too many batters, which is one reason for the high ERA. What can a manager do? Emphasize the need for quality at-bats and throwing strikes, but it's basically up to the players to get the job done.

 

Just an example of my frustration with this team and most of those that cover it. Recognizes that pitchers giving up walks leads to a high ERA, relative to team BAA, but fails to recognize that a high AVG can skew your perception of how many runs a team should score, at least when the team takes so few walks. Muskat says the Cubs don't hit w/ RISP and don't do the little things. Those things might be true, but the lack of walks by the offense has been killing us. If you realize that walks by your pitchers are bad, why is it so hard to realize that walks by your batters are good?

 

(In fairness, I like that she says we need "quality at-bats.")

[jtownie]

I'd be interested in seeing how many walks the Cubs average in a win versus a loss. Both by the hitters and pitchers.

[Fred Hornkohl]

I'd be interested in seeing how many walks the Cubs average in a win versus a loss. Both by the hitters and pitchers.

 

Team record by number of walks taken

                        W    L     pct
0.                      4    8   0.333
1.                      9   11   0.450
2.                     14   24   0.368
3.                     10   12   0.455
4.                     11    5   0.688
5.                      6    5   0.545
6.                      3    1   0.750
7.                      3    0   1.000
8.                      0    0   0.000
9.                      1    0   1.000


Totals                  61   66   0.480

 

Team record by number of walks allowed

                        W    L     pct
0.                      4    4   0.500
1.                      8    7   0.533
2.                      7   12   0.368
3.                     13   12   0.520
4.                     11    9   0.550
5.                      9    6   0.600
6.                      3    6   0.333
7.                      5    4   0.556
8.                      0    2   0.000
9.                      1    2   0.333
10.                      0    1   0.000
11.                      0    0   0.000
12.                      0    1   0.000


Totals                  61   66   0.480

 

 

In 66 losses this season.......

 

hitting            AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
CUBS             2253  191  539  116   10   59  852  183  146  374  0.239  0.289  0.378  0.667
Oppt             2286  419  667  122   11  104 1123  403  253  532  0.292  0.366  0.491  0.857

 

pitching            IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
CUBS              572.3  667  419  398  253  532  104  3.98  8.37  1.64  1.61  6.26
Oppt              604.0  539  191  182  146  374   59  2.18  5.57  0.88  1.13  2.71

 

In 61 wins this season.....

 

hitting            AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
CUBS             2142  373  663  145    9   98 1120  356  189  344  0.310  0.368  0.523  0.891
Oppt             1985  157  401   86    3   51  646  153  212  462  0.202  0.281  0.325  0.606

 

pitching            IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
CUBS              555.0  401  157  147  212  462   51  3.44  7.49  0.83  1.10  2.38
Oppt              526.7  663  373  361  189  344   98  3.23  5.88  1.67  1.62  6.17

[Cubzfan64]

Interesting stats Fred! Thanks for coming up with those so fast!

 

Looks like we have a .596 winning % when we clog the basepaths with 3 or more walks per game (leading to a 96 win season if we continued the pace). Adjust that to a .686 winning % when we really screw up and take 4 or more walks per game (leading to a 111 win season if we continued that pace).

 

Granted the number of data points in the sample aren't tremendous, and I'm sure there are alot of other factors that come into play, nontheless it is an interesting trend eh?

[UK1679666180]

It should be noted a hit should weighted more than a BB when looking at OPS, simply b/c of runner advancement.

 

I recently seen something that caught my eye...

 

1.6*OBP+SLG-(1-AVG)

 

I've use adjusted OPS, but the additional (1-avg) adds weight to the batting avg. which makes sense.

[T2E]

It should be noted a hit should weighted more than a BB when looking at OPS, simply b/c of runner advancement.

 

I recently seen something that caught my eye...

 

1.6*OBP+SLG-(1-AVG)

 

I've use adjusted OPS, but the additional (1-avg) adds weight to the batting avg. which makes sense.

 

Although OPS is already using average twice because OPS can be broken down to AVG + ISOW (OBP) + AVG + ISOP (SLG).

[UK1679666180]

But, if you have two players...

 

.250/.375/.425 500ABs 125 Hits

.300/.350/.450 500ABs 150 Hits

 

OPS is equal to .800 for hitters A and B, it is a correct assumption that if they had the same baserunners on base in the same situation that player B will have done more as far as advancing runners.

[Balsa]

We walked twelve batters in one game?!

[TheDude]

Interesting stats Fred! Thanks for coming up with those so fast!

 

Looks like we have a .596 winning % when we clog the basepaths with 3 or more walks per game (leading to a 96 win season if we continued the pace). Adjust that to a .686 winning % when we really screw up and take 4 or more walks per game (leading to a 111 win season if we continued that pace).

 

Granted the number of data points in the sample aren't tremendous, and I'm sure there are alot of other factors that come into play, nontheless it is an interesting trend eh?

There is nothing meaningful to be gleaned from these numbers. The Cubs pitchers have a winning record when walking 3-7 batters in a game, but a losing record when walking 2 or fewer batters in a game.

[Cubzfan64]

Interesting stats Fred! Thanks for coming up with those so fast!

 

Looks like we have a .596 winning % when we clog the basepaths with 3 or more walks per game (leading to a 96 win season if we continued the pace). Adjust that to a .686 winning % when we really screw up and take 4 or more walks per game (leading to a 111 win season if we continued that pace).

 

Granted the number of data points in the sample aren't tremendous, and I'm sure there are alot of other factors that come into play, nontheless it is an interesting trend eh?

 

There is nothing meaningful to be gleaned from these numbers. The Cubs pitchers have a winning record when walking 3-7 batters in a game, but a losing record when walking 2 or fewer batters in a game.

 

I disagree - enter the data into a spreadsheet with column A being walks from 0-12, column B as winning percentage for walks taken and column C being winning percentage for walks given. Plot the 2 curves and draw 2 trendlines - you'll quickly see that your winning percentage trends upwards the more walks you take and your winning percentage trends downwards the more walks you give up - it's not a coincidence and certainly not meaningless imho.

[Tracer Bullet]

Interesting stats Fred! Thanks for coming up with those so fast!

 

Looks like we have a .596 winning % when we clog the basepaths with 3 or more walks per game (leading to a 96 win season if we continued the pace). Adjust that to a .686 winning % when we really screw up and take 4 or more walks per game (leading to a 111 win season if we continued that pace).

 

Granted the number of data points in the sample aren't tremendous, and I'm sure there are alot of other factors that come into play, nontheless it is an interesting trend eh?

There is nothing meaningful to be gleaned from these numbers. The Cubs pitchers have a winning record when walking 3-7 batters in a game, but a losing record when walking 2 or fewer batters in a game.

 

I'm not sure that's true. Although the correlation between BB by our pitchers and wins does not seem to be strong, there is definitely something going on with BBs taken and wins. Obviously the fact that AVG is .239 in losses and .310 in wins is a big factor, but the fact that we're giving up almost 100 walks more than we're taking in losses is also a big factor.

 

And one thing can certainly be gleaned. The Cubs should never give up or take exactly 2 walks. :D

[Fred Hornkohl]

We walked twelve batters in one game?!

 

We certainly did. The CUBS home opener on Fri 08 April vs. Milwaukee. It was Kerry Wood's first start of the year.

 

Pitcher      IP   H   R  ER  BB   K  HR  PC
Wood        5.7   4   2   2   5   7   0 102
Wuertz      0.3   0   0   0   0   0   0  02
Fox         0.7   1   0   0   2   1   0  27
Remlinger   1.3   0   0   0   0   2   0  17
Hawkins     1.0   2   1   1   0   0   0  20
Rusch       0.3   1   0   0   1   0   0  14
Leicester   2.3   3   3   3   4   1   0  53
Wellemeyer  0.3   1   0   0   0   1   0  05

Team tot   12.0  12   6   6  12  12   0 240

 

It shoould be noted that that was a 12 inning game. More recently, on Wed 10 Aug, in an 8-2 loss to Cincinnati, CUBS starter Rich Hill, followed by Wuertz, Ohman, Williamson, Novoa, & Wood issued 10 walks in a 9 inning game.