Cubs-Padres Wild Card Game 2 Matchup By The Numbers

[Brandon Glick]

Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Well that was disheartening. The Chicago Cubs were flattened and curb-stomped by the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of their best-of-three Wild Card Series, hardly putting up a fight against a red-hot home team backed by a raucous crowd. Michael King neutered the league's best offense in a dominant showing on the mound, while Matthew Boyd was bombarded by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado right from the jump.

So, with that out of the way, let's move on to better times in Game 2, huh? Nick Pivetta isn't the same terrifying matchup he was in last year's Wild Card Round, having missed a huge chunk of the season due to a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. He came back in time to make some tune-up starts in September, recording a 1.45 ERA over 18⅔ innings. Clearly, he looks ready to go, but his ERA estimators (3.05 FIP, 4.78 xFIP) suggest that the Cubs can get to him with better luck than they had last night.

Even more important is the fact that the Cubs actually have some familiarity with their opponent tonight. After King, whom most of the starting lineup had rarely (if ever) faced before, plenty of hitters have some history against Pivetta. That includes Dansby Swanson (.814 OPS in 35 plate appearances), Michael Conforto (two homers in 13 at-bats), and Alex Bregman (.571 slugging in eight PAs).

Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Dansby Swanson	R	35	34	10	1	0	2	5	1	11	.294	.314	.500	.814	0	0	0	0	0
2	Michael Conforto	L	15	13	2	0	0	2	2	2	3	.154	.267	.615	.882	0	0	0	0	1
3	Ian Happ	B	11	10	3	1	0	0	0	1	6	.300	.364	.400	.764	0	0	0	0	0
4	Alex Bregman	R	8	7	2	0	1	0	1	1	3	.286	.375	.571	.946	0	0	0	0	0
5	Carson Kelly	R	6	6	3	0	1	0	1	0	3	.500	.500	.833	1.333	0	0	0	0	0
6	Michael Busch	L	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	.200	.000	.200	0	0	0	0	0
7	Seiya Suzuki	R	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.200	.200	.200	.400	0	0	0	0	1
8	Pete Crow-Armstrong	L	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	.333	.500	.333	.833	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nico Hoerner	R	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
10	Matt Shaw	R	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tyrone Taylor	R	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.500	.000	.500	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.

However, their knowledge of Pivetta is utterly dwarfed by the encyclopedia the Padres probably have on Gausman. Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined for well over 100 plate appearances against the Cubs' starter, with the latter two hitters working with an OPS over 1.000 in this matchup.

Kevin Gausman vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Xander Bogaerts	R	63	60	17	2	0	1	5	2	14	.283	.317	.367	.684	0	0	0	1	1
2	Manny Machado	R	25	25	9	1	0	2	3	0	3	.360	.360	.640	1.000	0	0	0	0	0
3	Fernando Tatis Jr.	R	24	23	8	1	0	2	3	1	5	.348	.375	.652	1.027	0	0	0	0	0
4	Ty France	R	21	18	6	1	0	0	1	2	5	.333	.429	.389	.817	0	0	0	1	0
5	Jake Cronenworth	L	19	19	2	0	0	0	1	0	6	.105	.105	.105	.211	0	0	0	0	1
6	Austin Hays	R	16	14	7	1	0	2	4	2	5	.500	.563	1.000	1.563	0	0	0	0	0
7	Gavin Sheets	L	11	9	1	1	0	0	0	2	3	.111	.273	.222	.495	0	0	0	0	0
8	Jackson Merrill	L	6	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
9	Walker Buehler	R	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	1	0	0	0	0
10	Luis Campusano	R	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
11	Sung-Mun Song	L	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	.000	.500	.000	.500	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.

In other words, it's advantage Padres for the second straight game. If the Cubs can win this one and push it to three, they'll get a far more favorable matchup against Robbie Ray or Walker Buehler, but getting there could prove to be a Herculean task.

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[Brandon Glick]

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