Can Cubs Remain Afloat At Third Base Sans Alex Bregman?

[Randy Holt]

Image courtesy of Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs look likely to be without Alex Bregman for a period of time following a freak accident on Sunday in which a foul ball from Michael Busch caught Bregman in the face while Bregman was standing in the on-deck circle. The timeline itself, however, remains unclear as Bregman is set to undergo additional testing. With such a tight window before the start of the postseason, though, the team has to at least plan to play playoff games without their star third baseman.

If Bregman is out for the duration, big questions immediately emerge. He hasn't just been good since rebounding from a slow start, but exceptional—to the point where he's currently top-10 in position-player fWAR for all of Major League Baseball, at 5.2. Removing a player on this kind of heater is a catastrophe for the Cubs, regardless of Pete Crow-Armstrong's exploits or how good they've been at the plate as a collective.

There are certainly broader implications for an extended absence from Bregman, but the immediate question shifts to how the Cubs will handle third base in his stead. When Bregman left the game on Sunday, Matt Shaw stepped in at his spot in the order, but with Pedro Ramírez flipping from the keystone over to third base. One imagines that it'll be some combination of these two manning the position for however long Bregman remains out. Given what each offers against the second-half production from Bregman, how big a dropoff are we looking at, here? 

Ramírez has logged 245 plate appearances this year with a .266/.324/.419 line (104 wRC+) and has played steady defense in a 101-inning sample at the position. Shaw, meanwhile, spent a great deal of time on the Injured List and has gone .238/.330/.419 (109 wRC+) in 188 plate appearances. He's only spent 35 innings at third this year, but he was a plus defender there last season. 

There's no tremendous disparity between the two right now. Ramírez has grown as a hitter throughout the year, with his second-half numbers (110 wRC+) proving better than the first (85 wRC+). Shaw offers a bit more in the shape of on-base, but it's dependent on a higher walk rate. Could they fit together as a platoon with Bregman-like upside?

Against left-handed pitchers, Ramírez has offered a wRC+ of 172 in 2026. Against righties, however, he's only at 89. The samples are small and distorted, though; he's probably a better hitter as a lefty. Shaw's distribution is similar, which makes more sense in his case, since he's solely a right-handed batter. He owns a 132 wRC+ against southpaws and a mark of only 86 against right-handed throwers. 

If Craig Counsell were forced to make a decision over who gets the bulk of the work at third today, the edge may very well go to Ramírez. The upside he offers at the plate is more than that of Shaw, and against righties, he's likely to make pitchers more uncomfortable, even if he hasn't actually produced more in those matchups than Shaw has. It would also continue a season-long pattern of usage for each. Of Shaw's 73 games this year, only 40 have been starts. Counsell has preferred to use him as a bat off the bench and a late-game defensive substitute, mostly in the outfield. 

Defensively, these two should be adequate replacements for Bregman; the team won't suffer the same degree of fielding degradation they felt while Swanson was out. The question of whether the lineup can remain afloat is much more difficult to answer. This is one position where the team has wonderful depth; few clubs would have better stopgaps ready in the case of this kind of loss. But Bregman was such a linchpin of the offense's second-half surge that it's hard to imagine them sustaining their run production without him. Specifically, neither Shaw nor Ramírez brings the same kind of power Bregman has tapped into over the last two months.

To go anywhere in October, the Cubs will need Crow-Armstrong to continue his torrid pace and get the kind of up-and-down-the-lineup contribution they got in Sunday's series finale against Cincinnati. If they want to win the World Series, though, they need this injury to be much less damaging than it looked, either immediately or in Bregman's later social media post. Either that, or Shaw and Ramírez need to become folk heroes on par with some of the most celebrated in team history.

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