Navigating the Logic Behind Cubs' Acquisition of Braxton Garrett

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In the most objective sense, the Chicago Cubs had one of the better trade deadline sequences of any organization in Major League Baseball. They had clear needs, and the front office took firm and aggressive steps toward addressing those needs. That doesn't mean each piece of their new roster puzzle fits in seamlessly, however. 

Kevin Gausman will get work at the front of the rotation. Clay Holmes, when healthy, will have a spot in his own right. Ryan Zeferjahn should be able to parlay some solid work with a listless Los Angeles Angels squad into leverage opportunities with a depleted Cubs bullpen. Where we start to run into some uncertainty, though, comes in the form of Braxton Garrett. 

Garrett was acquired from the Miami Marlins in exchange for prospects Jonathon Long and Jace Beck. The return itself is decent-enough from the Miami side, but the Cubs' perspective is a simple calculus; they gave up a bat-first player without a positional future in Chicago and a 26-year-old minor-league free agent that had broken out but lacked a pathway to innings at the top level. Neither name involved suggests that Garrett is a player the Cubs had to have. Nor does it indicate they need to bestow upon him an immediate major-league role. However, it isn't difficult to see what they liked. 

In 2023, Garrett was a breakout arm for the Marlins. He made 30 starts, threw almost 160 innings, and pitched to a 3.66 ERA (3.68 FIP), a 23.7 percent strikeout rate, and a 4.4 percent walk rate. The walk rate stood out, in particular, as it sat in the 97th percentile that season. All told, he turned in a 3.1 fWAR and established himself as yet another interesting young arm in South Beach. 

A year later, Garrett made seven tough-luck starts in which he continued to excel in his strikeout and walk rates but ran into a fair bit of hard contact and a .310 opposing batting average on balls in play. His ERA sat over five before hitting the shelf in June and undergoing Tommy John surgery in December of 2024. That wiped out all of 2025, with just two big league starts to his name since. 

At the minor-league level, Garrett has excelled. With the Marlins' Triple-A affiliate this season, he'd made 15 starts to a 2.90 ERA, a 26.4 percent strikeout rate, and a 9.4 percent walk rate. Elements of his profile that must have represented enough intrigue to the Cubs to execute this deal have been on display within all of that. 

The pre-surgery iteration of Garrett was primarily sinker-sweeper/slider. The 2024 season saw the introduction of a four-seam with a higher frequency, leading to a predominant three-pitch mix. Since getting back into regular work, that trio is primarily what we've seen from him in Triple-A this season:

As with his previous major-league work with Statcast, it's likely that TJ Stats has that slider/sweeper features significant overlap, with only the sinker sitting above it usage. The old mix of the sinker with a breaking pitch was successful for Garrett as it allowed him to be something of a groundball specialist. In his more than 300 innings of big-league work, he's gotten the ball on the ground 48.2 percent of the time. The four-seam addition hasn't dramatically overhauled his usage within a general context, but has provided him with a second pitch to lean on in those situation where he ends up behind. The metrics supporting it are also slightly better than the sinker in terms of the success of opposing hitters (though in a smaller sample). 

In general, here's where Garrett falls within his minor-league performance this season:

Ultimately, even as an arm logging his innings in the minor leagues at present, it's not hard to see where the Cubs' intrigue originates. He brings multiple fastballs and an effective sweeper/slider combination that has allowed him to mitigate hard contact in an effective fashion and helps him get a healthy amount of groundballs. That latter note is especially significant given the defense that will be playing behind him in Chicago.

There's also the factor of control. For a package of Long and Beck, the Cubs were able to get a multi-year left-handed starter with an interesting profile. They could have acquired a stronger track record in Reid Detmers, but at a much higher cost. The additional move for Holmes (while already having Gausman and David Peterson in tow) makes this more appealing than it otherwise could have been. 

We don't know what Garrett's role looks like this season. He may not even have one in 2026, barring continued injuries to the starting staff. But with Gausman and Matthew Boyd as pending free agents and Holmes holding a player option with the wide expectation that he'll decline, Garrett offers them much more certainty beyond 2026 than they may otherwise have had. It's a good bit of business from Jed Hoyer, even if the results may not be realized until a post-lockout world

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