So Far, Seiya Suzuki Isn't on Time

[matto1233]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Since Seiya Suzuki’s return from injury on April 10, the Chicago Cubs’ offense has started to figure things out. Heading into action on that day, the North Siders had a 95 wRC+, according to FanGraphs, meaning that the offense was five percent worse than the league average. Since then, they've hit to the tune of a 136 wRC+. 

Of course, both the 'before' and the 'after' here are small samples, and this jump is not entirely (indeed, not even mostly) due to Suzuki’s presence. The Japanese outfielder has logged just one extra-base hit since returning, though he's still cobbled together a respectable 94 wRC+. That extra-base hit was this double from the game against the Mets on Friday:

We’ll all take that result—Suzuki included. Doubles don’t grow on trees. However, a double into the right-field corner is not the Seiya Suzuki we’re all used to seeing. Last season, he managed just six extra-base hits to the opposite field, according to Baseball Savant. None of them looked like that thing. Four of them were to right-center, really. One was a fly ball in West Sacramento last March that just kept carrying over a short wall in the corner. The other was this... thing.

Hitting the ball hard has never been an issue for Suzuki. His average exit velocity has been in the top half of baseball every season since he came over from Japan, and in the top quarter for each of the past three seasons. While it's down so far this year, I'm not concerned about that rebounding some time soon. 

Suzuki broke out two seasons ago, and turned in a career high in home runs last season—when he started hitting more of those hard-hit balls in the air to the pull side of the field instead of on the ground, or to straightaway center field:

Year	Ground Ball %	Fly Ball %	Pull Air %	Straight Air %
2022	40.7%	25.5%	9.7%	22.8%
2023	43.6%	24.0%	14.8%	24.2%
2024	33.7%	34.0%	15.2%	32.0%
2025	31.8%	34.7%	24.3%	24.8%

The one extra-base hit that Suzuki has managed isn’t overwhelmingly concerning by itself, even if it is to the opposite field. Again, any extra-base hit is a good one. It's concerning that it is the only one, though, and it's indicative of the overall issue for the slugger so far this season: he has only pulled one ball in the air so far. That, alone, explains the complete lack of slug. Last season, hitters slugged 1.338 on fly balls to the pull side, and just .284 on fly balls to the opposite field.

So how has he managed not to be an abject disaster at the plate? A 14.6% walk rate has yielded a .366 on-base percentage, which will do the trick. He still rarely chases, which is good. His approach doesn’t appear to have changed much. He did admit to Craig Counsell that the strike zone is a little "fuzzy" to him, though, according to the Cubs' broadcast team, and his swing reflects that struggle to see it well.

When you have a guy who can’t pull the ball, that usually means there is a timing issue. This makes sense for a guy who had the start of his season derailed by an injury. Suzuki is playing like a guy who's still preparing for Opening Day. Let’s hope he starts to warm up soon. 

View full article