Should the Cubs Make a Call to Lucas Giolito?

[Paul Niemiec]

Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

It isn’t even halfway through April, and the Chicago Cubs’ pitching depth is already noticeably depleted. We got the news last week that the Cubs would be without sophomore starter Cade Horton for the rest of the season, due to a UCL injury. That came after the team placed Opening Day starter Matthew Boyd on the 15-day IL with a biceps strain. Before the season, the Cubs had some of the better rotation depth in baseball. Horton and Boyd were set to lead the rotation, with Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Edward Cabrera to follow. Swingman extraordinaire Colin Rea was in the bullpen, but could easily slot into the rotation. The underrated, dependable Javier Assad was stashed in Triple-A, along with top prospect Jaxon Wiggins. Oh, and their ace lefty, Justin Steele, would be showing up midseason.

Now, what looked like a deep group has thinned out substantially, and there might be a need for outside reinforcement. It's not just Boyd and Horton. Top offseason relief additions Phil Maton and Hunter Harvey are already on the shelf. Jordan Wicks and Porter Hodge have been sidelined since February. Wiggins has a sore arm. Even some of the way-down-the-list guys in Iowa are out of commission.

Well, there is one right-handed pitcher who posted 2.1 bWAR last season and remains unsigned: veteran starter Lucas Giolito. Last season with Boston, he pitched to a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings, but with a more worrisome 4.17 FIP and fanGraphs xERA of 5.01, signaling his good results were a bit better than his actual performance. His 19.7% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2018, before he turned the corner and became a mid-rotation workhorse for the White Sox. Last season marked his return to the mound after a second Tommy John surgery that cost him 2024. Due to that injury, and his age (31), there is more than enough reason to believe that Giolito can be better in 2026—but also enough uncertainty hanging over him to keep his market tepid. 

So why has he not been signed? There seems to be a pretty large disconnect between what Giolito thinks he's worth and what teams are comfortable paying him. He turned down a $19-million option with the Red Sox, certainly thinking he could secure a longer-term pact. Now that the season has begun, that gamble is looking more and more foolish by the week, especially considering the lack of success for pitchers who sign after Opening Day. No projections have him pitching to an ERA better than 4.50 for 2026, so he's not headed for a multi-year payday or anything. It seems unlikely, though, that he'll play for less than an eight-figure (prorated) salary.

Robert Murray of FanSided said the Cubs are “most likely” to move forward with their internal options instead of pursuing Giolito, but if his price tag comes down, then the Cubs should seriously consider the addition. At this point in his career, he's not exactly a sexy addition to the front half of a rotation, but he could provide competitive innings. Imanaga looks great this year so far, but he had injury issues a season ago. Boyd and Cabrera have each spent an unfortunately large portion of their careers on the IL, and Steele is returning from a serious injury that cost him nearly all of last season. This need already feels pressing, and it's likely to get worse, not better.

Though Giolito was mostly healthy last season, he was scratched in the postseason due to more elbow troubles, so there is still an injury risk here. But who else can the Cubs turn to? It's (probably) too early in the season for the trade market to take shape, and the remaining free agents not named Giolito include Nestor Cortes, Jon Gray, old friend Marcus Stroman, Alex Cobb and Frankie Montas. Giolito is younger and coming off a better season than all five of those other pitchers, so for the right price, he is really the only legitimate option who can slide into a rotation in the next month—if, indeed, even he can. 

As of today, the Cubs are 7-8, good for last place in the NL Central. The main focus has been an anemic offense. It's too early to start waiving the red flags with that group, which is just getting up to speed, but it's not too early to explore pitching depth in a depleted rotation. Last year, the Cubs' chief rivals found Quinn Priester in a seemingly desperate April trade to patch holes in their own rotation. The Cubs don't have the Brewers' organizational depth or acuity in moves like those, though, so they have to more seriously consider an expensive alternative.

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