Can Alex Bregman Remain Elite Throughout the Life of His Cubs Contract?

[Paul Niemiec]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

Prior to last week, the Chicago Cubs’ offseason could have been described as passive. They added a few veteran relievers on cheap contracts and brought back Shota Imanaga via the qualifying offer. This left fans wondering if the big move was coming; not when.

Fast-forward to now, and the Cubs have silenced the inactivity narrative that has defined their offseason by trading for the electric starter Edward Cabrera and signing three-time All Star Alex Bregman. The Cubs' playoff rotation in 2025 needed one more starter, and now, they have that starter should he remain healthy. Kyle Tucker never really seemed like anything more than a one-year rental, leaving them down an impact bat in the top of the lineup. After paying Bregman the highest AAV in franchise history, they now have that bat. (As well as the first two picks of the 2015 draft).

The former Astros, Red Sox, and LSU Tigers star will certainly help the Cubs contend for a postseason spot, and hopefully the NL Central division in 2026 and beyond. His ability to get on base, drive balls to his pull side, and play Gold Glove defense will define his impact on the field. His natural leadership ability will make an impact off the field with young stars Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Fans do need to realize Bregman is not the same type of player that Kyle Tucker is, and will not be able to carry the offense on his own. Bregman is a key cog in a machine, but not the machine himself.

This is not meant to discourage the Bregman signing, but it is more of a warning flag to fans. Bregman won’t be able to win games on his own. The Cubs will need a better year out of Dansby Swanson; they'll need to see Crow-Armstrong look closer to his first half self from 2025; Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch need to show their 30-homer seasons were no fluke. It might even make sense for the Cubs to target another free-agent outfielder or trade for a power-hitting threat off the bench (your mileage will vary on that). Before anyone starts preparing the championship banners, let's review the possible pitfalls of Bregman's contract.

Age:

Bregman will turn 32 right as the regular season begins in late March. This contract, which has no opt-outs and a no-trade clause, will run through his age-36 season. There's no question that the 7 and 8 WAR seasons Bregman had in 2018 and 2019 are a thing of the past, but will he be able to continue to post 4+ WAR seasons for the majority of this deal? If he didn’t miss time last season, he likely would have eclipsed 4 WAR for the fourth straight season. FanGraphs' Steamer projects Bregman to have an fWAR of 3.8 for the 2026 season, along with a wRC+ of 121. These projections represent a slight decline from his previous seasons but still align what the Cubs are believing they’re paying for.

Consistent production at that level might be challenging, though. Professional sports are getting younger across the globe, and gone are the days in baseball where players are posting elite production into their mid- and late-30s, but the chart below shows just how rare it is for players in their thirties to have 4+ WAR seasons.

Rk	Player	WAR	Season	Age	Team
1	Aaron Judge	10.8	2024	32	NYY
2	Aaron Judge	9.7	2025	33	NYY
3	Marcus Semien	7.7	2023	32	TEX
4	Paul Goldschmidt	7.7	2022	34	STL
5	Freddie Freeman	6.8	2023	33	LAD
6	Freddie Freeman	6.2	2022	32	LAD
7	Brandon Crawford	6.1	2021	34	SFG
8	Paul Goldschmidt	5.9	2021	33	STL
9	José Ramírez	5.8	2025	32	CLE
10	Trea Turner	5.4	2025	32	PHI
11	Jose Altuve	5.2	2022	32	HOU
12	Mookie Betts	4.9	2025	32	LAD
13	George Springer	4.8	2025	35	TOR
14	Starling Marte	4.8	2021	32	MIA,OAK
15	Freddie Freeman	4.7	2024	34	LAD
16	Kyle Schwarber	4.7	2025	32	PHI
17	Marcell Ozuna	4.3	2024	33	ATL
18	José Abreu	4.3	2022	35	CHW
19	George Springer	4.2	2022	32	TOR
20	Matt Chapman	4.1	2025	32	SFG
21	Marcus Semien	4.1	2024	33	TEX
22	Manny Machado	4.1	2025	32	SDP

This is the entire list of 4+ WAR seasons from position players aged 32 and up since 2021. Most of these players were considered elite or are still considered elite, and Bregman has largely been looped in with this group. Bregman should add his name to this in the next season or two, but most players, including many on the list above, will not age like Freddie Freeman. The Cubs need to perform now to maximize this deal, as it may look a bit rough toward the end.

Injury concerns:

Generally speaking, Bregman’s injury history is sparse compared to a lot of major leaguers. He's played in at least 145 games in six out of his 10 seasons. Of the four seasons he didn’t play as many games, one was his rookie year and another was the pandemic season. In 2021, Bregman missed over two months with a quad strain before stringing together three healthy seasons in a row. Then, he strained his other quad in 2025, causing him to miss about six weeks. He came back toward the end of 2025 and hit .300 in the postseason, so the quad issue seems not have lingered.

The concerns here are less about his injury history and more about his ability to play third base regularly through his mid-30s. The only primary starters at third base in 2025 older than Bregman were Jose Ramirez and Eugenio Suarez, and the free agent Suarez is likely to sign as a first baseman. If the Cubs hold onto Matt Shaw, which seems to be the plan, Bregman will have more opportunities to DH for the 2026 season with Nico Hoerner still in town. If the second baseman walks next winter, the Cubs will likely be in a position where they will need to bring in another starting quality second or third baseman in order to give an older Bregman enough time off his feet.

Power concerns:

Bregman is still a complete hitter without a doubt, but he’s not going to be that home run threat the Cubs have been missing. Hopefully, Busch and Suzuki become guys that can be counted on for 30-plus home runs again and again. This overly cautious front office deciding to pay Bregman an average of $35 million a year shows they believe they have the home run power already in-house. Bregman hasn’t had a 30 home run season since before the pandemic, when he hit 41 in 2019 (the juiced-ball year). He hit 18 in 114 games in 2025, though he averaged 24 from 2022-2024.

Unless the 5’11 infielder is able to go on a late-career power surge like Nelson Cruz, the Cubs will need to look elsewhere for some fence-clearing regularity. Bregman should still be able to clear 20+ home runs throughout most of his contract, but this could be an issue that persists, especially as he gets older.

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