Key Questions for Each Chicago Cubs Starting Pitcher

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

The Cubs are flying high, with a shiny 41-26 record and a five-game first-place cushion in the NL Central. It's a season with immediate and undeniable playoff vibes, one that harkens back to 1989, 1984, or 2008. With Kyle Tucker likely to walk at the end of the season, they can't waste this hot start, so it's time to address the elephant in the room: The starting rotation is patched together with Scotch tape and elephant glue.

Let's assume that Shota Imanaga will return, healthy, and sustain his elite pitching. Also, assume that Jameson Taillon can maintain his control-based, pitch-to-contact profile, without having everything fly over the fence. These two are rock steady. Colin Rea is what he is, as well. 

Even treating those three as constants, though, the rest of the rotation proposes unanswered questions. And the answers could be thrilling! But they could also drag the season down. With the division ripe for the taking, these are the questions that need to be resolved for each arm.

Matthew Boyd: How long does this last?
Boyd is like a person of my advanced age going to a New Year's Eve party. You get there at nine. Everything's going great until around eleven, 30 minutes past your normal bedtime. After much yawning and internal debate, the partygoer decides to leave right at 12, after the ball drops. Success!

Or is it? How do you think this partier feels the next day? The man pushed himself beyond what he was used to doing, and the results were diminished.

Boyd could face a similar fate. He's already made 13 starts on the season. If he makes nine more, that's the total of his last two seasons combined. He's at around 75 innings on the season, compared to 39 in 2024. Boyd is two starts away from matching his highest games started since 2019. He's going to continue to party; can he maintain effectiveness as he gets further into a season than he has in five years?

This is a concern. Boyd has been outstanding this year, quieting critics of the signing. He could very well continue on this path; in 2019, he did make 32 starts, and the season before that, he made 31. He does have a history of being a durable starter, then, although his results weren't this good even back then. At 35 years old, Boyd has to answer the question, at least, of whether he can still be a consistent rotation piece for more than a few months at a time. 

Cade Horton: Health, of course.

• 53 innings at Oklahoma
• 88 innings in the Cubs system
• 34 innings last season
• A Tommy John surgery in college and a nearly lost season to a shoulder issue in the minors

Horton has proved he can be a viable major-league pitcher, from a pure performance standpoint. He certainly has not answered the durability question, and with a career high of 88 innings for any season, he's never had to figure out how to achieve effectiveness at an elevated innings count. The Cubs will have to carefully manage his health going forward, both to protect the asset and see an effective pitcher in October.

Garret Crochet is an interesting comparison. He was an elite performer all season last year, his first as a pro starter, but he had a similar injury history. In order to protect the asset for a trade, he had his workload reduced. Horton isn't Crochet, and these Cubs are not last year's White Sox, but some kind of management plan is in order.

Horton has become an exciting asset, but one that is not assured to maintain value. It's an open question if he can remain healthy enough and make the adjustments needed to be a rotation option in the playoffs.

Ben Brown: What is real, the FIP or the ERA?
A 5.37 ERA is not ideal. If Brown's FIP (representing his skill, independent of fielding support) of 3.13 can be attained, though, that would be quite useful. Do we split the difference and use his Statcast expected ERA of 4.23? It's all very confusing. Is he good or not?

Brown is a strikeout pitcher with 78 punchouts in 64 innings. FIP loves strikeout pitchers, but ignores the quality of contact. Guys with high strikeouts tend to have lower FIPs, and also tend to be better pitchers. 

But what if FIP is misleading? Brown has been discussed often, like here, and also Randy Holt has a great take on it. From here, it seems like Brown has the stuff to punch people out, but when it doesn't work, the contact is hard. He's in the bottom 15% of big-league pitchers in hard-hit rate, and the bottom 7% in exit velocity (the bottom, here, meaning the highest numbers; he's among the worst in baseball at preventing loud contact). He's Adam Dunn, but for pitchers; it's either a rocket allowed or a strikeout.

Brown has a ton of potential, and the Cubs paid Craig Counsell a hefty sum to help players like him reach it. He could be a traditional starter, a stretched-out reliever type, or a fireman. If he's the latter, the innings will need to be filled elsewhere.

Jed Hoyer, to his credit, seems to understand the fragility here. On *The Show* podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman, he reiterated his desire to add pitching. It may not need to be a frontline ace, but it needs to be someone who can handle innings reliably.

This isn’t a year to play it safe. The division is there. The team is fun. And the window—even if briefly—looks open. The Cubs have the chance to make this a party that doesn’t end early or with a headache. All they need to do is bring in some reinforcements before the clock strikes midnight.

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