Jameson Taillon's Kick Change Is Kind Of Awesome

[matto1233]

A few years ago, the sweeper took MLB by storm. Last year, it was the death ball. Now, the kick change is all the rage.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

An early season peak at some of Jameson Taillon’s pitch data suggests a different, more effective pitcher. His overall Stuff+, a metric that evaluates the quality of a pitch based on its physical characteristics like velocity and movement, has bumped from 93 to 97, with 100 being average, according to Fangraphs. 

A four-point increase might not seem like a lot. But his Location+, which measures a pitcher’s ability to put pitches in the “correct” place, also rose from 107 in 2024 to 112 this year. These two numbers in conjunction form Pitching+, an overall evaluation of a pitcher’s raw pitch characteristics and execution. That has jumped from 100 in 2024 to 110 in the young 2025 season, with 100, again, being average. 

Here’s Taillon’s Stuff+ ratings, by pitch, in the 2024 season vs. the 2025 season. All stats courtesy of Fangraphs:

Year	Stuff+ Fastball	Stuff+ Sinker	Stuff+ Cutter	Stuff+ Slider	Stuff+ Curveball	Stuff+ Changeup
2024	80	80	95	119	103	81
2025	94	97	96	116	93	99

We see a meaningful bump in three pitches: the fastball, the sinker, and the changeup. In short, I do believe that the veteran right-hander has made meaningful changes to each of those pitches. For the sake of this article, though, we’re going to focus on the changeup. 

Why the changeup? Because the kick change, that’s why. Eno Sarris specifically referenced Taillon throwing the kick change in his article on the topic last week. I made note to pay close attention to this in his start against the Athletics last week, and sure enough, after spinning one off to the very first batter of the game, Lawrence Butler, it was pointed out by Boog Sciambi that Taillon was throwing the kick change this year. 

What is the kick change? It’s a variation of the changeup where the pitcher essentially spikes the right side of the ball upon release rather than spiking straight down or coming on top of the ball. I’d recommend reading Sarris’ piece above, or watching this video if you have six minutes of time:

Side note: you will notice that the video is from Tread Athletics. Remember that the Cubs hired Tyler Zombro, who had previously worked for Tread, as a special assistant this offseason to help with their pitching development. 

To this point of the season, Taillon has thrown only 15 changeups, but he threw seven against the Athletics after throwing four against the Diamondbacks in his first start this season (a number he matched in his start against the Rangers), so this could be something he is slowly gaining comfort with. Looking into Taillon’s pitch movement on the changeup last season vs. this season—it’s clear to see that the pitch is different. All stats courtesy of Baseball Savant:

Year	Vertical Drop	Horizontal Break
2024	27.0”	14.2” arm-side
2025	30.0”	15.5” arm-side

Added vertical drop is typically what you see when someone implements a kick change. In addition to the three inches of drop that Taillon is getting there, he is also getting an additional inch-plus of arm-side run on the pitch. 

Here is a Taillon changeup from his final start of last season. This one had 27” of vertical drop and 14” of arm-side break, a perfectly average changeup by movement for him last season:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=70eff18c-47e7-4229-84cf-a824953a6d60

And here is one from last week’s start against the Athletics that had 31” of vertical drop and 21” of arm-side run, movement numbers he rarely ever came close to in 2024, and it induced a ground-ball double play. This perfectly illustrates the potential of the pitch:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=c4992c61-45a5-3336-9b5e-85ccad042478

For those that don’t remember, Taillon struggled mightily against lefties in his first season with the Cubs. They hit him for a .363 wOBA. He dialed it back a bit last year, but left-handers still managed a roughly league-average .317 wOBA against him. This year, he has faced 29 lefties and held them to just a .279 wOBA. It’s actually righties that have hurt him this year, though I am confident that will even out in time. 

I am not saying this is purely a result of the changeup, but I am sure that it is a factor. Changeups tend to be effective pitches against opposite-handed hitters. Early season stats can always be a bit wonky, sure. They can also give us things to watch for going forward. Next time Jameson Taillon takes the mound, pay close attention to the changeup. How much is it moving? Will he start throwing it more often as he gets more comfortable with it? Or is this simply an early season fad?

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[Bertz]

It really is a fun pitch. I didn't notice it against the Dbacks but it stood out immediately against the A's.  It feels like it really ties his repertoire together by like you say giving him a real weapon against lefties. I feel like visually I've been digging his curveball more too, though the data doesn't back me up there.

Big picture though is Taillon’s swing and miss is way up right now.  So honestly despite the ERA beginning a 6 I feel much more confident in Taillon than I did a month ago.