2025 NL Central Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

[Michael Trzinski]

The Brewers have been the class of the NL Central field over the last seven seasons, finishing as division champions four times during that span, while earning the runner-up spot twice. Will they continue that run of dominance in 2025?

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Last Year

Milwaukee left division foes in the dust in 2024, taking the division by 10 games over the Cubs and the Cardinals. The Brewers had only one losing month and had a scintillating winning percentage of .679 in August to pull away from the pack. They moved into the division lead the last day of April and never relinquished that spot. Catcher William Contreras and outfielder Christian Yelich both made the NL All-Star team, while second baseman Brice Turang and outfielder Sal Frelick both won Gold Gloves. Manager Pat Murphy led the Brewers to 93 wins during his first season as the bench boss.

Key Losses: SS Willy Adames, C/DH Gary Sánchez, P’s Devin Williams, Frankie Montas, Colin Rea, Hoby Milner, Bryse Wilson, Joe Ross, Wade Miley.

Key Gains: INF Caleb Durbin, 1B/OF Mark Canha, P’s Nestor Cortes, Tyler Alexander, José Quintana, Grant Anderson.

Starting Pitching

The projected rotation is comprised of three righties and two southpaws. Freddy Peralta was sixth in the NL with 200 strikeouts even though his strikeout rate of 27.6% was the second-lowest of his career. Aaron Civale came over from Tampa Bay during the season and posted an ERA+ of 119 across 14 starts. Tobias Myers had an ERA+ of 140 and a FIP of 3.91 during a nice rookie season. Lefty Nestor Cortes came from the Yankees in the Devin Williams trade and was an All-Star in 2022. Fellow southpaw Jose Quintana was signed as a free agent late and brings experience to a youngish staff.

Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, and Brandon Woodruff have either been slowed by injury or are on the injured list. When healthy, this trio should see some action, and all of them possess intriguing upside. Top prospect Jacob Misiorowski is a longshot who needs to improve his control to make the roster, but he should make an appearance in Milwaukee sometime in 2025, either as a reliever or starter.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Name	FIP	fWAR	K%	BB%
Freddy Peralta	3.92	2.4	27.1	9.2
Aaron Civale	4.50	1.2	21.5	7.3
Nestor Cortes (L)	3.68	2.7	24.5	6.1
Tobias Myers	4.22	1.5	21.7	7.4
Jose Quintana (L)	4.45	1.1	18.2	9.5
Aaron Ashby (L)	4.22	1.0	22.2	12.0
Brandon Woodruff	3.64	1.5	28.1	7.3
Jacob Misiorowski	5.22	0.0	23.3	12.7

Relief Pitching
With the loss of Williams, Trevor Megill (155 ERA+, 3.10 FIP) becomes the full-time closer. Righties Joel Payamps (138, 3.73) and Nick Mears should be locks. It is possible Milwaukee will carry as many as four left-handers in the pen. They are free agent Tyler Alexander, Bryan Hudson (243, 3.60), and Jared Koenig (170, 3.28). Rule 5 pick Connor Thomas is also in the mix for one of the last two spots.

Three other right handers who are fighting for an Opening Day roster spot are Elvis Peguero (141, 4.04), Abner Uribe, and Elvin Rodríguez, who pitched in Japan last year. Righty prospect Craig Yoho is having a nice spring but is at least a half-season away.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Name	FIP	fWAR	K%	BB%
Trevor Megill	3.43	0.5	28.3	8.3
Joel Payamps	3.91	0.3	23.8	8.2
Nick Mears	3.53	0.5	28.6	11.3
Jared Koenig (L)	4.03	0.8	21.7	8.7
Abner Uribe	3.92	0.2	28.1	14.3
Tyler Alexander (L)	4.69	0.3	18.8	5.0
Bryan Hudson (L)	3.65	0.6	26.2	8.7
Elvis Peguero	3.78	0.4	21.6	9.4
Connor Thomas (L)	4.14	0.9	16.7	6.2
Craig Yoho	3.97	0.3	27.6	9.5

Catchers
William Contreras has been one of the best at his position the last three years and will squat behind the plate for 120 games again this season. The team will aim to keep his bat in the lineup as an occasional DH. Eric Haase will be the back-up and could play left field in an emergency. Prospect Jeferson Quero was sent down and will start the year at Triple-A Nashville.

First Base
Rhys Hoskins will start the majority of the time at first and take an occasional turn at designated hitter. Mark Canha is a capable back-up and can also play at the outfield corners if needed. Ernesto Martinez will provide organizational depth after a nice spring.

Second Base
Gold Glover Brice Turang will return at second after offseason speculation had him moving to shortstop after the loss of Willy Adames. Caleb Durbin and Vinny Capra are battling for utility infield spots.

Third Base
Oliver Dunn appears to have won the hot corner spot after a solid spring. Durbin is still in the mix but hasn’t performed well in camp. Capra can also play third.

Shortstop
Joey Ortiz moves over from third base and solidifies the infield, giving the Brewers a pair of potential Gold Glovers up the middle. Durbin or Turang could serve as a back-up.

Left Field
Exciting youngster Jackson Chourio returns for his second year after finishing third last year in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Christian Yelich can play left but will most likely be in the lineup as a regular DH. Canha can also play the corners of the outfield.

Center Field
Garrett Mitchell is having a nice spring and provides speed and defense in CF. Sal Frelick and Chourio could fill in as needed. Defensive whiz Blake Perkins is out with a fractured right shin but should return sometime in May.

Right Field
Frelick brings his Gold Glove defense to right field and was fourth in the majors last year with a 15 DRS. He also can steal a base for the ‘Go Go Brewers,’ who finished second in the National League last year with 217 stolen bases. Canha can serve as a backup when needed.

Designated Hitter
Yelich will spend most of his time as the DH in an effort to save his body from injury. Contreras will also take a few turns in the spot, as will Hoskins.  

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Name	wRC+	OPS	wOBA	fWAR
William Contreras	124	.803	.348	4.6
Eric Haase	82	.658	.286	0.6
Rhys Hoskins	107	.745	.323	1.0
Brice Turang (L)	90	.677	.299	2.6
Oliver Dunn (L)	79	.635	.282	1.1
Caleb Durbin	93	.682	.303	1.3
Joey Ortiz	101	.721	.315	2.1
Vinny Capra	91	.677	.300	1.5
Jackson Chourio	108	.756	.325	2.8
Mark Canha	103	.700	.315	0.7
Garrett Mitchell (L)	108	.743	.326	1.6
Sal Frelick (L)	100	.712	.313	2.3
Christian Yelich (L)	120	.788	.343	2.4

What Does 2025 Look Like For the Brewers?
As mentioned earlier, the Brewers have been the cream of the NL Central crop for the last seven years or so. Not so this year, at least according to the pundits. PECOTA projections give Milwaukee a 7.9% chance to win the division, while giving the rival Chicago Cubs an 81.6% chance to sit atop the Central. FanGraphs projections have only Contreras (4.8) above at least 4.0 fWAR while eight players are projected better than 2.0, and another five above 1.0.

The healthy return of RHP Brandon Woodruff would tremendously help the Brewers starting rotation, and a healthy Blake Perkins improves the outfield defense and clubhouse chemistry.

The Cubs are heavily favored, and it appears that the other four teams are going to compete for the bridesmaid spot. We'll see how it all plays out when the games actually get going.

Let the season begin!

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