Does Matt Shaw's Defense Even Matter?

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We spent a great deal of time last season haggling over the 2024 Chicago Cubs’ defensive production at third base. Some of us dedicated valuable time to drumming up justifications, stressing patience, and ultimately forcing optimism regarding Christopher Morel’s future at the position. A fool’s errand, obviously.

Image courtesy of Cody Scanlan/The Register

Last year’s Cubs were the second-worst team in baseball in matters of defending the hot corner. Their -15 Outs Above Average was ahead of only the Cincinnati Reds. Christopher Morel himself accounted for an OAA of -11. His replacement, Isaac Paredes, also finished below the average threshold (-1). Even 2023 defensive darling Nick Madrigal took a step back in posting a -2 OAA in his abbreviated season. Virtually nothing went right at third base on that side of the ball. 

Despite that, the Cubs at least appeared to have found a middle-term solution for the spot. Paredes wasn’t without his flaws, but had proven to be a steady defender there over the course of his career. And then he was traded as part of the Kyle Tucker deal. A worthwhile move (obviously!), but one that also sent the Cubs back into the realm of uncertainty when it comes to the longer term outlook at that corner of the infield. 

Which is where Matt Shaw comes in. 

It’s a relatively objective thought to posit that the Cubs would have been in a better position with Alex Bregman in the fold. That would have given them a surefire answer at third base for the next handful of years (pending opt-outs), and even if the team had to trade Nico Hoerner to offset salary to make it work, Shaw is probably better suited for glove work at the keystone at this point in time. And if he’s not, they have other viable options coming down the pipeline (James Triantos, etc.). 

That’s not how things played out, of course. And the Cubs are now set to run out onto the field in 2025 with their top positional prospect as their starting third baseman. His bat will go a long way toward maintaining his role throughout the year, to the point where it may be the thing that makes or breaks him out of the gate. Because, ultimately, his defense is irrelevant. 

Diving into the numbers would be futile, given that only rudimentary figures are available for MiLB squads. On top of that, Shaw’s experience at third is extremely limited. He appeared there 42 times with Double-A Tennessee and another 22 with Iowa. Projecting his defensive output is just impossible at this point. What we can do, though, is lean on the profile in order to draw some conclusions. Especially up against someone like, say, Christopher Morel. 

MLB Pipeline noted the following about Shaw’s defensive makeup: 

Quote

His below-average arm is a bit stretched at the hot corner, though his quickness and fast hands help his cause.

Quickness & hands are kind of two prerequisites for playing the position. You can get by with even a mediocre arm. We saw Madrigal do it (even if it required six crow hops on each play). But that reaction time and the hands to make the play are the most essential components. Morel struggled because he didn’t have the hands. He tried to compensate with his cannon of a right arm. But without the foundation in the glove itself, it ended up moot. It’s that simple bit of information that we have about Shaw as a defender that should at least allow him to be an upgrade over the crew the team had manning the hot corner last year. 

Given that, I think it’s perfectly acceptable to believe that Matt Shaw’s defense at third base this year does not matter. With how much erraticism we saw from Morel this year, it would be a stretch to imagine something worse. By virtue of his stable glove alone, Shaw will be better. The Cubs are also more fortified elsewhere on the diamond. The remainder of their infield is somewhere between the realm of good (Michael Busch) to elite (Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner). They could have one of the best defensive outfields in the game. So even if Shaw’s adjustment to the top level includes some defensive growing pains, this team can live with it. 

The bat will be the emphasis. The bat should be the emphasis. Shaw may not be long for the position anyway, depending on Hoerner’s long-term future with the organization. I’ll be watching the defense with a keen eye because that’s my nature. But unlike last year, where I was living and dying with each play Morel had to make, the anxiety over Shaw taking over at third base isn't nearly as palpable.

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