Spring Training Questions: How Will the Cubs' Catcher Timeshare Play Out?

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When Yan Gomes's career unraveled in early 2024, it derailed the Cubs' catching situation for months. This time around, they're much better-positioned... right?

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After a winter dedicated to creating more clarity and upgrading depth throughout the roster, there isn’t a whole lot for the Chicago Cubs to settle this spring. Matt Shaw and the third base spot notwithstanding, the positional side of the exhibition season will be about building up and staying healthy—at least as far as the starting lineup goes. That doesn’t mean that it isn’t a month without intriguing storylines for the lineup this side of Shaw, however. For the greatest degree of mystery about regular-season playing time, look behind the plate.

In a broad sense, the Cubs’ catcher spot is settled. Signing Carson Kelly was designed to lower the risks associated with Miguel Amaya, but not to replace him. Jed Hoyer now hopes he has two credible backstops on his projected roster. The Logan O’Hoppe pursuit at last year’s trade deadline didn’t persist into the offseason. In the absence of higher-upside options on either the free agent or trade markets, Kelly was the best way to cobble together a modest timeshare situation, even if Amaya will still be the primary receiver.

Keep an eye on the likes of Moises Ballesteros and Pablo Aliendo as the season progresses, but that’s for developmental purposes. Neither is set to challenge for a big-league role in camp, even if the former’s bat could put him on the cusp of earning some opportunities by the time the summer arrives. Early on, Amaya and Kelly will be the tandem behind the plate. The extent to which each one will “hold it down,” however, is a matter of some conjecture. 

Baseball Prospectus’s depth charts have Amaya occupying the spot half the time this year. Kelly’s at 45 percent. Ballesteros occupies the other 5%, likely in the instance of a late-season callup. Similarly, FanGraphs has Amaya at 50 and Kelly at 47, with an extra two thrown in the direction of Reese McGuire, who’s likely to get run as a third catcher in Iowa. Their last little bit of time was also saved for Ballesteros. Either way, an even division of labor looks likely. 

Will that be the case, though? Should it be? Plenty of factors will dictate what the split looks like. There are variables on both sides of the ball, too.

Amaya might possess higher upside as a hitter. While his overall line (.232/.288/.357, 83 wRC+) doesn’t indicate a desirable offensive backstop, his second-half numbers do bode well. He went for a 113 wRC+ in the season’s second half, with a minuscule 11.4 K% and a strong .174 ISO. July and August were particularly kind to him, with wRC+ figures of 149 and 157, respectively. The changes to his approach are well-documented at this point, with Craig Counsell and company likely to spend the early part of the year figuring out how much of that is sustainable.

Kelly’s 2024 wRC+ (99) essentially indicates a league-average hitter. He cut his strikeout rate by about nine points between 2023 and last year, driving up the power numbers from an .081 ISO two years ago to .135. While not overly impressive on its own, his 9.7% career walk rate is three points higher than Amaya’s. He’s had an uneven career as a hitter, but has shown the ability to give slightly above-average production out of the catcher position depending on the year.

Amaya has two months of quality production to his name; Kelly has roughly two separate seasons of it over a much more extended period. Given the latter’s inconsistent production, however, there isn’t much separating the two at this moment. Even if Kelly has a wider sample of success than his catching counterpart. Amaya possesses more upside. It’s likely the bat that tips the scales in Amaya’s favor early. 

Defensively, Amaya is likely going to need to demonstrate more growth to stave off Kelly for the top spot on the depth chart. By the reckoning of Catching Defense Added (CDA), BP’s comprehensive catching metric, Kelly was the 21st-ranked catcher in the bigs last year (1.6). Amaya, meanwhile, sat 77th (-2.7). In more granular metrics, Kelly was just slightly below average in framing but above in both blocking and throwing. Amaya fell under the average threshold in framing and in throwing. 

As a blocker, though, Amaya succeeds. He trailed only Danny Jansen in Blocks Above Average, with 12 (via Baseball Savant). How much that compensates for his shortcomings in the other aspects of the position, of course, is a subject of both valid debate and much uncertainty. Savant also had him as the 10th-worst catcher in Framing Runs (-5), 14th-worst in Stealing Runs (-2), and with the fifth-worst pop time to second base. Kelly, on the other hand, was 20th in Framing Runs (1), 10th in Stealing Runs (3), and featured an above-average pop time. He's terrifically accurate, too.

The defensive question isn’t one. Kelly is the superior defender. While Amaya still has time to showcase some development on that side of the ball, one does have to wonder how much that will factor into the distribution between the two—and when. 

It’s not a particularly enigmatic picture to examine. Amaya’s bat gets him early playing time. Kelly’s steadiness on both sides keeps him in the mix a few days a week. Over time, as Kelly becomes more familiar with the pitching staff, his run prevention forces the issue—but so does Amaya's continued offensive improvement. That, at least, is what the Cubs are hoping for.

In the meantime, perhaps each guy will be paired up with specific pitchers. The catcher position is, undoubtedly, improved for 2025. But the way these two interact with each other, from a performance standpoint, could have a lot to say about where the position goes in the years beyond this one.

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