MLB's Study on Pitching Injuries, and What It Tells Us About Cubs' Offseason

[Brian Kelder]

If you missed it, MLB released a 62-page document on pitching and injuries. Are there any real solutions in there?

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

It's all very interesting, and you can read all about the findings from Jeff Passan, David Adler of MLB.com, and basically any website that covers baseball at all. They have done a great job of explaining it, but what has this done to affect the Cubs and their offseason planning?

The Cubs have been questioned for their signing of injury-prone southpaw Matthew Boyd and their trade talks for oft-injured Jesus Luzardo. The consensus is that the team needs a reliable, 32-start innings-eater. With Justin Steele's five IL stints in the past three years, Cade Horton a complete wild card at this point, Jordan Wicks missing significant time, and Javier Assad's forearm issues last year, the Cubs should be looking for stability, right?

Well, according to these reports, that level of stability doesn't exist. Injuries are on the rise. We are just beginning to understand trends and possible causes. This will seek to examine how the Cubs have been affected by these causes, and what they've done to build a team to address them.

1. Velocity and Spin Rate
In 2019, the Cubs promoted a pitch lab, to moderate success. I won't pretend to know much about pronators and spin. I do know that maximum-effort throwing is harder on the arm than less-than-maximum. Anyone who's thrown a baseball and tried to do a curveball can understand the added stress involved in creating and manipulating spin.  

The Cubs' relief unit was beset by injuries last season. Daniel Palencia is the perfect example. He's a maximum-effort guy, chasing velocity. He can't control the pitches at that level of effort, and hasn't been healthy. Luke Little and José Cuas, too, often felt like throwers, not pitchers. They also were injured and ineffective.  

The Cubs version of chasing velocity and spin has not reaped the rewards. Even if you consider Justin Steele an ace, he has not been healthy and effective at the end of seasons, when he's needed most. To counter this, they have stockpiled arms. No fewer than 10 guys are rotation options for the Cubs in 2025.  

Of course, it would be better to try to keep your arms healthy, instead of just working around the issue. One thing the Cubs rotation has been criticized for is their lack of velocity and wipeout stuff in the starting rotation; I would argue this is a feature, not a bug. Jameson Taillon, in particular, has overcome his "oft-injured" label and been a reliable arm for the Cubs. With the elite defense the Cubs will field next season, pitching to weak contact is a good idea. There's less need for this particular team to have wipeout stuff in the rotation.

2. Minors Not Preparing Starters to Go Over Five Innings
The Iowa Cubs are not asking their starters to go over five innings. Organizationally, they have bought into the model of going all-out for as long as possible, then switch to a reliever who does the same, and churn through fungible arms. Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell will be interesting test cases on this strategy and pitcher health.

Brandon Birdsell has a Tommy John scar already. He had his in 10th grade, which caused him to spend his high-school years rehabilitating his arm. He then spent some time as a Division I reliever, before his rotator cuff caused him to miss more time.  He was healthy his last year in college and won the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year. Here is a link to his scouting report around the time he was drafted. Big stuff, but also came at a cost to health.

Cade Horton is known as a Bad Man, but also comes with concerns. There is zero track record of sustained, healthy success. When he's been healthy (notably in his junior year of college and in 2023(, his stuff has been filthy. The question is, would it remain as filthy if he weren't pitching with maximum effort? Current results would suggest not.

Birdsell and Horton seem to be subscribing to this pitching philosophy. They would rather go all-out, risking injury but also elevating their pure stuff, to achieve their MLB dreams. Given their injury histories, a trajectory like that of Garrett Crochet seems to be the best-case scenario: Often injured, but with a breakout season at some point tempered by the constant shadow of injury.

Keeping pitchers like Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and the recently jettisoned Drew Smyly around will be important if the Cubs continue to develop their arms to pitch just five-ish innings per start. The stress on a bullpen (guys who are also throwing for max spin and velocity) means the Cubs' trades for guys like Cody Poteet will be more important than people expect.  

The Cubs are not at the forefront of preventing injuries. It seems like they have decided that injuries are inevitable, and are stockpiling depth with no regard for injury history. Matthew Boyd was not signed for 30 starts; the Cubs will be happy with 15. Justin Steele will be happy with 25 starts. It's a new era in baseball, and the Cubs (albeit later than some others) have fully bought in.

From a fan's perspective, it would be nice if the Cubs could try to prevent these injuries, instead of accepting them as the cost of doing business. However, with the current model-based scouting prevailing league-wide, we will be looking more at spin, velocity, tunneling, and sheer stuff than ever before. Maybe they can stockpile enough arms, and at some point they will have a healthy enough group to do something special. Until then, we will continue to read the injury reports to see what's next for the pitching staff. The only good news in the study is the reassurance that the rest of the league's fans are doing the same thing.

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