What, Exactly, Went Wrong With the 2024 Cubs Bullpen—And How Do They Fix It?

[Brian Kelder]

Jed Hoyer has stated that he got the bullpen wrong in 2024. Yes, Jed, you probably did! Along with the offense, the bullpen was simply awful in May and June. So what happened here? And how does fixing it go?

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Statistially, the Cubs did not have a good relief corps. Baseball Reference ranked them 22nd in their Wins Above Average metric, but that shouldn't be a team killer. Just below them on the list was the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Baltimore Orioles were 24th, so clearly this can be overcome. Looking at traditional stats, the Cubs were 10th in bullpen ERA at 3.78; 15th in WHIP at 1.25; and 13th in batting average against and home runs allowed. By FanGraphs WAR, the bullpen ranked 20th in MLB.  Alright, Jed, I hear you. The bullpen was an issue.

But why couldn't it be overcome? The answer can be found by looking at three key relievers—Adbert Alzolay, Hector Neris, and Hayden Wesneski—in April, May and June. These three relievers totaled 11 blown saves, all of which led to losses. The Cubs missed the playoffs by less than this, but assuming all closers blow saves occasionally, let's merely guess that six of these were wins and five remained losses. That would put the Cubs at 89-73 for the season, firmly in the hunt for October. If you assume April losses to San Diego and Arizona flip to wins, the Cubs finish one game out of the chase. (Yes, this is a flawed idea.)  Flip all of these to wins and the Cubs are on the verge of winning the division.  

In June, Wesneski was named, sarcastically, pitcher of the month by this website. Here's what was written at the time:

In his eight appearances in June, Wesneski has been on the receiving end of some extremely tough losses. In five of those appearances, he surrendered six home runs. In four of these chances, the dinger gave up a hard-earned Cubs lead, resulting in a loss, and in his lone start, he was lit up by the lowly Giants. (July started the same way for him.) Of all the struggles for all of the Cubs, Wesneski was the most consistently damaging at crucial moments. He represents the failure of this team to compete this past month.

Sheesh, whoever wrote that was in a terrible mood! So what went wrong, planning-wise, for this group?

1. The Holdovers: Alzolay, Mark Leiter, Jr., and Julian Merryweather were great in 2023. They also have extensive injury histories. That 2023 campaign was actually the healthiest any of them had had in their careers. In 2024, it all crashed down around them, both health- and performance-wise. Relying on last year's breakouts in the bullpen can severely backfire (remember this later).
2. Injuries: Bullpen arms do get hurt, but the cluster bomb of injuries that hit the lineup struck the bullpen at the same time.  Ben Brown, Yency Almonte, Leiter, Alzolay, and Merryweather all went down in May and June. When you couple this with the cluster of injuries in the linked article from the lineup, really, it would take an Atlanta-level roster to weather those storms.  

Hoyer deserves much of the blame for the way the bullpen was constructed. It doesn't take a baseball wizard to conjure up a theory that injury-prone pitchers could possibly become injured again, and the entire back end of the bullpen falls into that bucket. Injuries happen to all teams; counting on continued health from pitchers who have not demonstrated that ability was always a fool's errand.

The bullpen really was a major issue, but probably not bad enough to derail the Cubs' playoff hopes on its own. Hoyer needs to take steps to make sure they don't have a third consecutive season of trying to figure things out. Tyson Miller, Jorge López, and Nate Pearson were great for the final stretch in 2024 and might be counted on to reprise their roles. Their Statcast profiles show they'll probably be a mixed bag in 2025. Miller overperformed his metrics last year. He would be more expected to have an ERA in the mid-3s, with elite control numbers. He can still be valuable, but we are talking about a guy with half a season of success at the MLB level at age 28. The Cubs were right to bring him back, but there is risk here.

López has a longer track record of success and is a better bet to maintain his production. His performance didn't have an outlier quality, and if you look at the link he was very good at using offspeed pitches to limit hard contact. He might not repeat a 2.03 ERA with the Cubs, but he could be a mainstay. He's a free agent, but the relationship between him and Craig Counsell should facilitate an on-the-cheap reunion if the team wants one.

Pearson had a rapid turnaround with Chicago after failing to turn his top-10 prospect pedigree into real production for Toronto. He does hit 100 on the radar gun. Maybe Hoyer has picked up a Jeff Hoffman-type reliever, without paying the premium Hoffman will cost as a free agent. We should not expect all three of these guys to perform well this upcoming season, though.  Variance and injuries hit all bullpens at some time. Hoyer would be wise to remember Leiter, Merryweather, and Alzolay when considering his bullpen. It would be overly pessimistic to assume all three would fail, but it would be too optimistic to assume all three repeat their brief success. Maybe re-signing López isn't such a good idea after all.

Eli Morgan is a step to address the depth of the bullpen, and was acquired at minimal cost. Brown is expected to have a normal offseason, and maybe Cade Horton can contribute at some point next summer. The plan for the bullpen needs to account for variance much more effectively, though, if the Cubs are to avoid another May/June disaster. Signing a higher-dollar reliever like Clay Holmes or Hoffman would be a wise use of funds to reduce variance. 

Don't plan on the Cubs taking this route, despite evidence the past two seasons that it can be useful. After researching for too many work hours, the conclusion is that the Cubs hit a two-month stretch of offensive injuries and high-leverage bullpen failures. They were eight games under .500 when the calendar flipped to July. This date coincided with the lineup getting healthy and the bullpen solidifying. If Hoyer can avoid the bullpen regression monster and the injury luck is spread out, the Cubs are a few good moves from being truly relevant.

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