Cubs Arizona Fall League Prospect Wrap-Up

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Several Cubs prospects finished a month-long autumn showcase last week in Arizona. Let's put a wrap on things.

Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Arizona Fall League came to its official close over the weekend, with the Salt River Rafters besting Surprise in Saturday’s championship game. Unfortunately for the Chicago Cubs’ contingent, the Mesa Solar Sox didn’t factor into the end of things. They were left out of even a chance to compete for a spot in the title game following a 14-16 record in the fall slate. 

For our purposes, though, the win-loss outcomes were never of paramount importance. This was all about seeing what the Cubs had in this year’s class of prospects. It was a group that fell a bit more under-the-radar than usual (Moises Ballesteros notwithstanding), but we can glean at least a little bit about names to keep an eye on moving forward. 

Starting with the marquee name, though, Ballesteros did not disappoint across his 93 AFL plate appearances. The Cubs’ no. 4 prospect (according to MLB Pipeline) turned in a .317/.376/.557 line that included four doubles and five homers. His continued work behind the plate was, no doubt, of particular interest for the Cubs, as they determine if and when he could be starting back there at Wrigley. While the team will likely pursue at least a timeshare option to pair with Miguel Amaya, there’s little doubt that Ballesteros at least has the offensive chops to break through in the not-too-distant future. He does plan to play winter ball in Venezuela before the spring, however.

There may not have been a bigger riser for the Cubs this fall than Jonathon Long (no. 30). The bat-first corner prospect was one of Mesa’s top performers throughout much of the fall season, particularly in the power game. His slash included a .338 average and .425 on-base percentage, while also being supported by six home runs, four doubles, and a triple. He did strike out 20 times in 87 PAs, but compensated well between the power and an impressive 11 walks. While his positional future remains a question, his offensive profile is a tantalizing one coming out of the AFL.

Ben Cowles is one spot ahead of Long in the MLB Pipeline rankings, but didn’t experience quite the same level of success as his positional counterparts this fall. His OBP fell under .300, while he hit only .213 across 84 PAs. Ultimately, his output in the fall season was fairly in line with his offensive profile. Sort of solid, but unspectacular. Where he showcased his value was in his versatility, which should keep him plenty relevant, even coming off an underwhelming stretch of games. 

While the Cubs were largely successful on the positional side this fall, they didn’t experience quite the same level of success on the mound. Grant Kipp got off to a strong start, with multiple three-inning scoreless outings. He battled command issues (10 walks) and scuffled to an ERA north of 5.00 when it was all said and done. A mixed bag, to be sure, but some positives early on.

Command was a common struggle across the board for the Cubs’ group of arms. Luis Rujano walked nine in nine innings, and Sam Thoresen walked 10 in only six. If it wasn’t command in balls and strikes, it was command in location within the zone. Shane Marshall, for example, walked only four in seven innings, but also allowed 15 hits (including three home runs). Each of Rujano and Thoresen finished with ERAs of at least 7.00, while Marshall’s sat above 14.00.

If we’re looking for genuine positives from the contingent of Chicago hurlers, it’s likely in the form of Vince Reilly. The Grand Canyon University product performed well back home, striking out nine hitters in 9 2/3 innings of work. He was largely able to keep baserunners at bay in a way that his Cub comrades were not, pitching to a 3.72 ERA that paced the group. His arsenal is an interesting to watch take shape, given that he’s only been a part of the system since March. In a minuscule sample of pitches captured by Statcast cameras in some of the AFL parks, Reilly showed a fastball at 92-94 miles per hour and both a slider and a changeup in the mid- to upper 80s with good depth.

There’s never too much one can glean from the Arizona Fall League. It’s primarily a chance to get a look at some recent draftees or signees, and lacks a bit of the name recognition that we saw just a few years ago. Nonetheless, getting some of these lesser-known names in front of our faces for a few weeks isn’t a bad thing. 

It’s unlikely we’ll see any of these names at Wrigley early on in 2025, but the AFL at least afforded Cubs brass a chance to get a look at individual skill sets and start to think about future roles as they begin the process of building out their organization for next year.

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