Cubs Trade Candidate Breakdown: Cody Bellinger

[Brian Kelder]

Cody Bellinger at this point is a Cub much to Jed Hoyer's chagrin.  He has the potential to contribute as the regular right fielder and occasional Michael Busch rest provider.  But what value does he have on the open trade market?

Image courtesy of © Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Cody Bellinger has a well-chronicled salary situation. He's locked into 2025 at $27.5 million and has the option to play 2026 at a $25 million dollar salary. With a 109 WRC+ last season, the Cubs certainly hope he can revert to his 2023 number of 136. Steamer's 2025 projection basically mirrors his 2024 season: 109 WRC+, 20 home runs, and a .429 slugging percentage. These do not address the Cubs' lack of power. A trade of Bellinger might free up salary to fill the need.

While the Cubs have some bright spots offensively, statistics show their needs.  They were ranked 14th in the league in home runs, but 9th in slugging percentage.  This shows a lack of ability to put the ball out of the park.  Home run percentage is at 2.8%, 20th in the league.  Why is this important?

Of the top seven teams in home runs hit, six made the playoffs with the exception of Arizona, who won 89 games.  When expanded to the top ten, only Oakland was out of contention.  Home runs matter.  The Cubs were 20th in this statistic.  Clearly, power matters.  The Cubs, with a leader of 25 home runs in Ian Happ, are sorely lacking in this area.

If the Cubs were to find a taker, it would likely be in conjunction with some sort of high-dollar bat acquisition. Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso have been floated online as potential fits due to their power profile. Still, they are unlikely Cub targets due to their age, salary demands, and the Cubs' aversion to long-term commitments. Free agency will not get the Cubs lineup where it needs to go.

A more likely scenario would be for Jed Hoyer to trade for an upgraded bat and then find a taker for Bellinger to offset the salary. At this point, it is impossible to predict who that might be, but many teams face uncertain winters due to the television situation. If the opportunity arises, Bellinger could be flipped to make room under the Cubs' self-imposed salary cap.

The Cubs do not have many avenues for trades, or open positions.  Left field, right field, and shortstop have no trade clauses, and every position is covered at this point by a controlled asset.  There are limited avenues then to make the offense better;  with Michael Busch at first, Seiya Suzuki entrenched in right field, Bellinger is redundant to the Cubs lineup.  Something would need to give here in order to optimize the lineup.  

Bellinger does have value to a team who is willing to play him in center field.  Peter Crow Armstrong will be given a long leash in Chicago.  Perhaps another team will accept his ability to play that position, albeit with a negative UZR and DWAR, according to Fangraphs.  The free agent market is weak, with the likes of Harrison Bader, Michael Taylor, and the retiring Kevin Pillar mentioned in the top five by MLB.com.  A team needing a center fielder would be the ideal trade target.

Who might be in the market at this position?  Of course, the Yankees are a fit both at center and first base.  Perhaps, though unlikely, the Dodgers would pursue a reunion.  The Angels are adding and could sell themselves on a cheap Bellinger trade.  Philadelphia has been floated in the past as well.  There is no shortage of teams who could use someone at that position.

Of course, the Cubs want to compete in 2025, but the trade would be solely for payroll flexibility. That's why it would have to be in conjunction with another move; they won't want to open a new hole in the lineup without addressing it. Any return would be underwhelming and likely consist of low-level prospects, salary filler, or both.  Cody Bellinger would not be traded for much of value for the 2025 Cubs.

Another reason to trade Bellinger would be to open up roster spots for the Iowa Brigade of Top 100 Bats. It would be very Hoyer like to open up spots for cheaper prospects.  For example, Matt Shaw has had a great winter and seems ready to contribute. Owen Caissie in theory is cheap power.  Cam Smith will need a place to play soon.  The question then would be how Hoyer spends to upgrade elsewhere.

While this offseason lacks the glitz and glamour of a Juan Soto pursuit, it does have avenues to improve the team marginally. A Cody Bellinger trade would open up options and make for a flexible offseason. The question is, would the replacements be better than Cody Bellinger? As always, we shall sit back and await developments.

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[harmony]

Would anyone trade the onerous contract of Cody Bellinger to the Yankees for former Cub right-hander Marcus Stroman, who likely has two years and $36.5 million remaining on his contract?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/176540

Bellinger's contract calls for one year at $32.5 million or, if he exercises a 2026 player option, two years at $52.5 million.