Building A Cubs Bullpen That Doesn't Struggle The First Half Of The Season

[matto1233]

The Cubs tend to figure out their bullpen in the second half of the season but can they find a way to get there earlier in the season?

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

While the Chicago Cubs otherwise got off to a fantastic start to the 2024 season, it’s easy to remember just how much better that start could have been. There was the blown save in the season's first game against the Rangers. There was the lost 8-0 lead in San Diego. The backbreaker against the Marlins was in the first game of a doubleheader. All lost opportunities for a team that ended up being on the wrong side of the playoff picture. All in April

To be fair, the bullpen did right itself: a rough first half gave way to a much better second half with a 3.51 ERA, good for eighth in baseball, according to FanGraphs. However, the damage was done. At that point, the Cubs had dug themselves enough of a hole thanks to bullpen meltdowns like the ones previously mentioned. 

Thus, it’s fair to assume that fortifying the bullpen will be at the top of Jed Hoyer’s offseason shopping list. He basically admitted as much in his press conference a few weeks back and took some level of responsibility for the instability of the bullpen early on. Hoyer said he didn’t give the team enough depth to withstand the early season struggles from Adbert Alzolay or the early season injury to Julian Merryweather. 

Indeed, this proved to be true. It also seems this isn’t the first time we’ve witnessed this phenomenon. Under Jed Hoyer, the Cubs have frequently pitched very poorly out of the bullpen in the first half, only to improve in the second half significantly:

Year	First Half Bullpen ERA	Second Half Bullpen ERA
2020	5.30 (23rd)	3.53 (5th)
2021	3.40 (5th)	5.61 (28th)
2022	4.30 (24th)	3.86 (17th)
2023	4.01 (16th)	3.67 (8th)
2024	4.01 (16th)	3.51 (8th)

In every season except for 2021, when they traded their three best bullpen arms, Andrew Chafin, Craig Kimbrel, and Ryan Tepera, at the trade deadline, the Cubs dramatically improved their bullpen ERA from the first half to the second half. 

What, exactly, does this mean? My first thought was that this would be a league-wide finding. All teams take time to find their go-to guys out of the bullpen in a given season. Do you think the Yankees thought Luke Weaver would be closing playoff games? But once they find those guys, they ride them more in the second half to much better results. Believe it or not, this does not appear to be the case:

Year	First Half Bullpen ERA	Second Half Bullpen ERA
2020	4.36	4.52
2021	4.19	4.14
2022	3.86	3.85
2023	4.10	4.26
2024	3.97	3.98

It seems pretty random to me. In some cases, it was worse, and in some cases, it was better. In most instances, the difference is pretty small. 

This regime can build a good bullpen. They have done it on the fly mid-season multiple times! How do they translate that to the offseason? Why haven’t they been able to do so to this point?

The Cubs have demonstrated the ability to identify and bring in bullpen arms that they think can help. They did so this season with Tyson Miller and Jorge Lopez. They need to build more contingency plans in the offseason so they don’t have to do so mid-season. This wasn’t just a blip on the radar of 2024 failures for Jed Hoyer and this front office but rather a consistent shortcoming that has to be addressed for next season. 

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[Old Time Cub Fan]

It all falls on Jed. He keeps giving the managers a group of guys that usually fall one by one and they keep trying and trying until they find the right guys. Last year was a fluke finding two guys off waivers that all below them passed and one guy from AAA that didn't do that well at AAA. I'm looking at playoff teams and most of the relievers are no name guys that come out of nowhere. Very few guys can be counted on year by year.