An Examination Of Tom Ricketts' Letter To Cubs Fans

[Brian Kelder]

On October 11, Cubs Chairman of the Board of Directors Tom Ricketts sent his annual letter to Cubs fans.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

Much like a Jed Hoyer press conference, if you are already predisposed to anger toward the Ricketts family, you will find ample to become angry about. Here's the full text of the letter with reactions to it.

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Cubs Fans,

There is no way to sugarcoat it – this is not where we planned to finish the season. Like our fans, we had high expectations for our team this year and early victories delivered hope for postseason baseball. But inconsistent play and injuries upended that promise, leading us into a hole too deep to recover from despite another second half surge. Bottom line, we did not play a complete season of competitive baseball. As a result, we have again missed the most exciting and exhilarating month of the season – October.

Well, this is a promising start, but the body of the text isn't great. Mentioning injuries is very tone-deaf. Spotrac places the Cubs 19th in MLB on the amount of money injured this season, behind the playoff contestant Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, Brewers, Padres, and Phillies. Eight of the 12 teams had less value lost than the Cubs, and Ricketts cites this as an excuse. The Pirates and Reds, moving more locally, also had more days lost to the IL than Chicago. Injuries happen. The issue was that they didn't have a deep enough team to overcome them.

Inconsistent play, sure, I can get along with that, but that second-half surge is becoming an annual event. Ricketts and Hoyer believe in the numbers. They are instructive, however. The Cubs BABIP (Batting Average, Balls In Play) was .264 for a .217 batting average in May. In August, the Good Month of Competitive Baseball, it was a .295 BABIP and was in the range of .289 to .309. That's very consistent.

Here's what he should have cited as his reasons the Cubs struggled: lack of power, lack of defined bullpen roles, lack of depth, and poor clutch play on both sides of the ball. Don't use injuries as an excuse. Eight teams made the playoffs, losing more value to injuries than the Cubs.

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Work is underway to close the gap and make the Cubs a perennial playoff team. Our baseball operations staff is redoubling its efforts to build a team that consistently plays in the postseason and delivers the promise of sustained success to Cubs fans.

Though we fell short this season, we have strong foundations to build on.

Jed, Carter and our team of coaches, analysts, scouts and strategists have created one of the top player development groups in the game today – with eight prospects on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list – the most of any team in Major League Baseball. After this summer’s draft, the Cubs boast a top-flight player development system in most independent rankings, including #2 in USA TODAY’s latest evaluation.

This isn't what fans needed to hear. The team has indeed modernized many things in the pipeline. First, there are reports of the Cubs cutting these top player scouts and moving to video scouting more often. Second, why haven't they made an impact on the big-league club? Listen to this podcast; the Cubs have not pushed them at the major league level. Will they do this in 2025? What is the goal with these prospects? Should we expect to see them next season, be traded, or rot away in Iowa?

It's unquestionably good to have prospects and even better to have multiple good ones. Let's look at the Cubs' prospects' success rate and bust potential here. The Cubs do not have a top-20 global prospect in the system.

22. Matt Shaw, 62.4% bust rate
34. Owen Caissie, OF
42. Cade Horton, RHP: also lower in many places such as ESPN, 87.5% bust rate when ranked at 90-100
44. Moises Ballesteros, C/1B
55. James Triantos, 2B/OF
67. Kevin Alcántara, OF
73. Cam Smith, 3B
100. Jefferson Rojas, SS

You can reference the bust rate found in a 2014 study. There is no reference to the potential downside here, or about using the players as trade chips, or any view of possible creative use of these people. If you look at the "superior" tab, which the Cubs are sorely in need of, there's, at best, a 25% chance of any of these individuals reaching standout levels. It's a good thing, but how the players are leveraged at this point is more telling. Here's a fun graphic as well:

By placing this first, Tom Ricketts is making the classic small-market play. He's selling hope for the future, which is good, but as a top-three market in the league, the Cubs must properly evaluate that 60% bust rate. Fans must be savvy in evaluating this farm system and not just take Tom's word. There's a decent chance that none of these players succeed.

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Under the leadership of manager Craig Counsell, we continued to see players develop on the major league level. Rookie pitcher Shota Imanaga, who signed as a free agent last offseason, had one of the best seasons as a rookie pitcher in Cubs history, leading the team with 15 wins, a 2.91 ERA, 174 strikeouts and only 28 walks. He steered the way on a memorable September night at Wrigley Field where his seven hitless innings kicked off a combined no-hitter that was closed out by Nate Pearson and Porter Hodge. Rookie Michael Busch secured a starting role at first base and slugged 21 homers with a .775 OPS. Fellow rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong brought excitement to the basepaths with six triples and a 93-percent stolen base rate. PCA also kept runs off the board with his electrifying defense. Additionally, veteran Ian Happ had a career year with personal bests in home runs (25) and RBIs (86) and continues to be a clubhouse leader.

It's a pretty standard highlight package here if somewhat underwhelming. Hey, Pete Crow-Armstrong was electrifying on defense! If we had truth serum, I wonder if Tom Ricketts not mentioning Dansby Swanson (who was better than Crow-Armstrong on defense), Cody Bellinger (who they likely want to opt out this offseason), or Seiya Suzuki (who was their best hitter with an .848 OPS) is a sign of where his head is. There is a world where Tom holds the Swanson deal as Jed Hoyer's biggest splash against him, the Bellinger deal as the highest single value, and the Suzuki trade for a now-DH as a negative in the job evaluations.

Citing these stats just shows how underwhelming the roster was in 2024.

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Before we turn the page on this season, I also want to thank you for helping us recognize Ryne Sandberg this year. For many of us, Ryno’s play defined an era, and his statue unveiling was a once-in-a-lifetime tribute to a true Cubs legend. Ryne and Margaret are forever a part of our Cubs family, and it was important for us to stand in support of his fight against cancer by hosting Cubs for a Cure this year, which helped raise $1 million to battle this terrible disease.

We also remain committed to making a positive impact in the community through Cubs Charities. This year, more than 17,000 students participated in our youth sports and academic programs in neighborhoods across Chicago.

It is these special moments and activities on and off the field that bring the players and fans together to remind us of what we all love about Cubs baseball.

It is more than a game – it is a tradition that spans decades, with our fans at its heart and soul. You bring an excitement to the ballpark that is as time-honored as the ivy-lined walls and historic scoreboard. I want to personally express my sincere gratitude for your continued loyalty to our team.

Yeswe are so grateful for your continued loyalty and willingness to pay even more for the Wrigley experience. Also pay us 20 bucks a month for the TV content too. You owe us for keeping Wrigley going.

Now, it is time for us to get to work to bring championship caliber baseball back to Wrigley Field.

Sincerely,

Tom Ricketts

There really isn't much to be outraged about in this article; there are more nits to be picked than anything. Nothing in it indicates a major change in roster or philosophy is coming. Hoyer and Ricketts are in lockstep; expect a quiet offseason in Chicago.

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