Does Justin Steele's Injury Overhaul the Cubs' Winter Spending Plans?

[Brian Kelder]

To add injury to the insult of losing two games to the Pirates, Justin Steele landed on the IL with elbow tendinitis. This will have implications for both this year and the future. The Cubs have a big decision to make on him pitching again this year; it'll probably be made for them in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, this is an emerging story for the Cubs and their number one starter.

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

In the past three years, Justin Steele has missed time with back, hamstring (twice), and elbow (twice) injuries. He also faded mightily in the failed playoff run of 2023, with a 4.91 ERA in September. It's time to worry about Steele's long-term viability, as he enters his 30s next summer. Some intelligent writers posted the idea to trade Steele before he breaks completely.  This chance has passed, and the Cubs will enter September and next season with uncertainty at the top of the rotation.

It will be imperative for the Cubs to address the starting rotation in the offseason. Nathan Eovaldi could fit in nicely as a solid starter for his 25 starts, for example. The Cubs have once again missed the chance to cash in on an asset at peak value.

What could transpire for the Cubs going forward?

Doomer Option: Tommy John
It's the worst-case scenario, and so far, we don't have any indication that it will be needed, but it is a path that Steele has trod already.  

Sunshine and Lollipops Option: A Quick Return
In this idyllic reality, Steele misses 10 days, the inflammation goes down, he re-enters the rotation like nothing happened at all. If you listen to Steele, he's planning on this. You shouldn't ever listen to an athlete talk about their own injury, though--at least not as a lone source. They have no clue.  But it is an option that could happen, and that would benefit the Cubs immensely.

The Most Likely Scenario: Operation Shutdown
Steele stays on the IL, and in this time, the Cubs' current 1.9% chance at the playoffs doesn't improve, thereby negating the need for Steele to risk a setback at all. He doesn't return for the regular season, but the team anticipates him being ready for a normal spring training.

Look, Steele has become a fan favorite, and for good reason. It's been rare for the Cubs to turn out a homegrown prospect of such quality. But they need to be careful with their prized lefty. Steele may not be capable of six months of healthy production, and as he enters his 30s with a lengthy injury history, the Cubs need to evaluate every option.

Long term, it would be foolish to count on Steele for more than 20-25 starts. He's only topped that number once, with 30 in 2023. In his other seasons, he's toed the rubber 9, 24, and 22 times. The forearm problem that cost him two weeks last summer is closely related to the one now sidelining him; the same issue coming up again does not bode well for his elbow health in the future. Steele can't be counted on as their co-ace again next season.

In the offseason, the Cubs need to add starting pitching. Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and Corbin Burnes are the headliners, but there are also numerous others, such as Eovaldi, Blake Snell, or Walker Buehler (might be fun to fix!) who could step in and help. Perhaps the Cubs will roll the dice on Yusei Kikuchi or Shane Bieber to fill out the rotation, or find a willing trade partner.  Whatever the plan is, it needs to compensate for Steele missing a month or more of the season.

Along with this, they need to truly analyze why their entire rotation has missed time, except Shota Imanaga, not to mention every member of their bullpen. Here's a list of injuries to befall Cubs hurlers this year:

• Adbert Alzolay:  Tommy John surgery
• Yency Almonte:  Shoulder surgery
• Luke Little:  Lat strain
• Ben Brown:  Weird neck issue
• Hayden Wesneski:  Elbow
• Jameson Taillon:  Back
• Kyle Hendricks:  Back
• Jorge López:  Groin (one initial injury, then aggravated it)
• Julien Merryweather:  Shoulder/rib stress fracture
• Javier Assad:  forearm
• Jordan Wicks: the Dreaded Oblique strain
• Daniel Palencia:  Shoulder, vision (that's why he can't find the plate)
• Mark Leiter, Jr:  Forearm
• Drew Smyly:  Hip
• And of course, don't forget: Cade Horton, shoulder

Something is going wrong with their process, Injuries happen to everyone, but injuries shouldn't happen to everyone. Steele might be the canary in the coal mine, or it could be a small blip. Seasons like this, though, need to force the front office to reevaluate their approach to pitching over a whole season. Health is the next project for the pitch lab entering 2025.  

Justin Steele's injury is one that comes with no silver lining. If he misses the remainder of the season, add one more item to the list of positions that need to be upgraded. (Even if he does, you probably ought to do so.)

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