Looking At The 2025 Chicago Cubs' ZIPS Offense Projections

[Brian Kelder]

With the Cubs' postseason chances dwindling a little by the day, we'll look forward to 2025 and where the Cubs might need help on offense.

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

With the season rapidly winding down, leaving poor Chicagoans to wonder if Caleb Williams lives up to generational hype and if anyone in the league wants Zach LaVine, attention naturally shifts to next season. What can we hope to see from this roster next season on offense? Luckily for us all, FanGraphs houses a projection system that can give us reasonable expectations for next year's Cubs team.

A few details: Guys who I believe are over-projected in terms of playing time (Patrick Wisdom isn't getting 368 at-bats, for example) will be left out. Only players who have set projected roles will be featured. Also, this assumes zero trades and that Cody Bellinger opts back in. The North Side Baseball crystal ball is on the fritz. Apologies for being unable to forecast the future. Finally, ZIPS updates daily, so these should be updated to the latest projections.

You can find all projections on FanGraphs.

Home Runs

• Isaac Paredes - 27
• Michael Busch - 23
• Dansby Swanson - 21
• Seiya Suzuki - 21
• Ian Happ - 20
• Cody Bellinger - 18
• Pete Crow-Armstrong - 16

This is good and bad news at the same time. The good news is that the Cubs project to have seven guys who could conceivably hit 20 home runs. The bad news is that they don't have a guy with 30; they're counting on consistency, and this team hasn't shown an ability to do that. The middle of the order still projects low power levels next season.

Optimism: Cody Bellinger, but that's health projections. He's had 11 injuries over the past four seasons. Maybe, just maybe, he's not injury-prone and just had bad luck. Not everyone runs into a wall to break a rib.

Concern: Isaac Paredes was not highly thought of in a fantasy nugget by noted fantasy personality and Rays fan. Contact rate and a ton of traffic on the bases in front of him masked that much of his contact was weak, and RBI was bloated, making his value seem higher than it was. Paredes was a product of his environment, per Collette. Lo and behold, the Cubs environment is not very good, and he's struggling to a .147 batting average on the team. Barring a late-season surge, 27 home runs seem very optimistic.

Overview: The lack of power isn't going to fix itself. When you add Nico Hoerner, the team is projected to hit around 162 in the season. Here's a list of teams that hit around or less than one dinger per day: Washington, the Sox, Marlins, Rays, Pirates, Blue Jays, Angels, Tigers, Giants, and shockingly the Cubs this year. Conversely, the top ten teams in homers per game are in playoff contention, except for Oakland. Only the Brewers are similar in terms of the lack of home runs this season. The Cubs need to add power and home run capability to contend next season.

wRC+

• Seiya Suzuki - 119
• Isaac Paredes - 117
• Michael Busch - 112
• Ian Happ - 107
• Dansby Swanson - 102
• Cody Bellinger - 100
• Nico Hoerner - 95
• Pete Crow-Armstrong - 94

This team is not bad. Leaving out the catcher position, eight of their position players project to be league average or better. By definition, that isn't bad. You don't need an Aaron Judge's 223 wRC+ to be a valuable hitter. This entire lineup projects to be just fine. The question then becomes, how do you get that elusive elite production? Maybe Brent Rooker can be had as he gets more pricy. Perhaps a prospect develops into that role (more later on their projections). Looking at this group of projections, the Cubs definitely cannot run this same lineup back and expect better results.=

Some other trends are notable and instructive about what the Cubs should do this offseason. No Cub is projected to have an on-base percentage over .349. No Cub is projected to have a slugging percentage topping .470. Finally, according to the FanGraphs offense rating, only four members of the lineup project to have a positive value for next season. In other words, this Cubs lineup is filled with average bats. Average bats lead to average results.

Jed Hoyer, building this team, paid a hefty premium for all-around players and undervalued guys who have their primary value on offense. Seiya and Paredes are the two sluggers; no pundit dares call them elite. It's a lineup of complementary players searching for that Reggie Jackson, the straw that stirs the drink, if you will. The Cubs have not had a great lineup this season, and without wholesale changes or a surprise major move, they don't project to improve next season. It's up to the front office to see this and act accordingly.

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[Bertz]

I hate to be a bucket of cold water but 2025 numbers have not been updated since March.  Current season numbers update every day but the others are annual, with Szymborski recently saying they might do one mid season update per season.