The Cubs' Improved Bullpen Is Due To The Emergence Of Porter Hodge

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Believe it or not, the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen has been seeing drastically better results since the calendar turned to June.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

From the beginning of the season through the end of May, the Cubs’ bullpen ERA of 4.61 was 27th in baseball. Since then, however, their 2.92 ERA is fourth. It feels like this has gone mostly unrecognized, probably because it hasn’t resulted in more wins, save for that nice little stretch to end the first half of the season. 

There are multiple reasons for this resurgence. Frankly, the biggest reason might just be plain old luck. FanGraphs said the Cubs’ bullpen FIP before June 1 was 4.14. Afterward, it’s 3.77, which would suggest that the group is not as bad as it was for the first part of the season, but also not as good as it has been lately. 

Another reason is the emergence of Porter Hodge. The former 13th-round pick was fast-tracked to the big leagues when it was obvious the bullpen needed reinforcements, and since his debut on May 22, his 0.5 FanGraphs WAR is the best amongst the group. He’s pitched to a 2.16 ERA and has a 2.25 xERA and 2.27 FIP to support the good results. 

According to Baseball Savant, Hodge primarily features a fastball in the mid-90s, and he throws roughly 70 percent of the time. He supplements that with a sweepy slider that he throws the other 30 percent of the time. I wouldn’t say he has swing-and-miss stuff, at least not based on early results: his 11 percent swinging strike rate is 179th among the 330 relievers that have thrown at least ten innings, per Fangraphs. 

His 27.7 percent strikeout rate is above the league average of 23 percent for a reliever, but not incredibly so. Mason Miller, he is not. Where the rookie reliever really succeeds is on pitches in the strike zone. Five hundred twenty pitchers have thrown at least 200 pitches this season. Hodge has allowed a .206 xwOBA on pitches in the strike zone, which puts him fourth among that group of 520 pitchers. Speaking of Miller, he is one spot above Hodge with a .205 xwOBA allowed on pitches in the zone. Any time you can be compared to arguably the best reliever in baseball, it’s a good sign. 

This is where Hodge’s fastball shines. He’s allowed a .201 xwOBA on fastballs in the zone, which is eighth in MLB. Matthew Trueblood previously alluded to how difficult Hodge’s fastball would be to hit, which is exactly what is playing out. With very little horizontal movement in addition to some added drop, the rookie out of Salt Lake City has a very unique fastball that is a little similar to someone else we are all familiar with, but at a higher velocity:

Player	Vertical Movement vs. average (inches)	Horizontal movement vs. average (inches)	Velocity (mph)
Porter Hodge	-2	-8	95
Justin Steele	-2.9	-6.4	91.7

He isn’t doing it with just the fastball, either. He’s allowed a .225 xwOBA on breaking balls in the zone. That figure is a slightly less sterling 71st in baseball. However, hitters are whiffing at 35 percent of those pitches, which is 14th.

The concern with Hodge upon his call-up was whether or not he would throw enough strikes. He was walking 15.8 percent of hitters in AAA this season, and he’s dropped that to a much more manageable 10.8 percent in the big leagues. His zone rate has gone up, but only slightly: he threw 47 percent of pitches in the zone in AAA, and he’s up to 52.5 percent in the majors. 

Where we’re really seeing a difference is in swing rates. In MLB, hitters are swinging up 67.4 percent of pitches in the zone. In Triple-A, that figure was just 54.4 percent. Hitters aren’t getting results in the zone, so you have to wonder if they’ll just start swinging at those pitches less and make Hodge throw a strike more than once or twice. 

Regardless, it’s clear that the stuff is there and is big-league caliber. We’ll have to wait and see if the walk rate stays down. But for now, any way you slice it, and anywhere he throws it, hitters just cannot square up Porter Hodge. 

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