Sunday's Performance Was Just a Glimpse Into Who Pete Crow-Armstrong Can Be

[Jacob Zanolla]

The Cubs finished the first half with an 8-3 victory on Sunday, highlighted by big games from Christopher Morel and Pete Crow-Armstrong. I want to focus on Crow-Armstrong for a few minutes because that game sent us into the intermission with reminders of many positive aspects of his skill set.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Pete Crow-Armstrong hit two home runs off of Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas Sunday, traveling a total of 814 feet. They were both on breaking pitches low and below the zone. This is important because it’s his first multi-homer game in the big leagues, but also because the double-tap was a drought-buster. Not since his first big-league hit back in April had he cleared the fences in an MLB game, prior to these two shots. Crow-Armstrong hit for power in the minors, but that pop hasn’t really translated to the majors. He also walked, making it back-to-back days taking a base on balls.

Entering Sunday, the rookie's wRC+ was 48. His wRC+ for Sunday’s game was 708, so maybe he can keep that up for a whole season? Jokes aside, though, if he can manage an 80 or 90 wRC+ at the minimum, that’s awesome for the Cubs. Most of his value comes on defense; we have known this for quite some time. He made a few nice catches Sunday, too, and already has 6 Outs Above Average, according to Baseball Savant. 

He’s fast and can steal bases, which adds even more value when thinking about putting him in the lineup. Crow-Armstrong is 17-for-17 when it comes to swiping bags. Whenever he reaches base, the first thought isn’t “Can he steal this base?”, but rather, “When is he going to steal this base?” That is unless he triples, although I have a feeling he’ll try to steal home before too long. Over the last two months, he's taken off running on one of every eight pitches when he's been on base with an open one in front of him, easily leading MLB in Go Rate.

The main issue with his approach is the whiff rate, which is at 28%. I’d love for him to focus on making better contact in the second half of the year, but that’s easier said than done.

[Is the above true? His contact rate actually isn't extreme; it's 29th percentile. That's obviously not great, but to me, the overall swing rate (100th percentile), chase rate (99th), and lack of differential between swing rates early in counts and with two strikes (1st percentile) loom larger. They're related, but rejigger the above to clarify a little bit that swing decisions are driving his issues, more than a pure inability to make contact.]

Jed Hoyer seems to want Crow-Armstrong to be the center fielder of the future. Many scouts and pundits around the game have said that he is already the best defensive center fielder in baseball. Sunday’s game showed some of his offensive potential, but it’s clear that he won’t be hitting home runs every day. The speed is who he is, translating to his defense and baserunning, as well as helping with reaching first base on bunts. He’s 99th percentile in sprint speed, too, which always helps. Earlier in the series, he grounded out to Cardinals second baseman Nolan Gorman, who didn’t even have time to set his feet before throwing to first. Crow-Armstrong’s hustle creates chaos, and will certainly give him more opportunities to provide value than players with a lower motor would get.

[The conclusion here feels abrupt. One more paragraph should do it, but let's bring this in for a landing. Give me some thoughts on how much he should play out there, even as Tauchman and Bellinger return, and reinforce the concept that his power actualizing more would be a huge developmental victory in the second half.]

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Since then?