Breaking Down The Cubs' Roster And Its Trade Values

[Brian Kelder]

With the deadline fast approaching and decision time coming on a lot of assets, I’m fascinated by the Cubs and how they and the league will value their assets.  This article will try to quantify the value of who the team has, how hard or easy to move they will be, and who would get a solid return.  

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Immovable Money/No Trade Clauses
Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly

There are not many multiverses in which these guys get moved, so let’s move on. Theoretically, the first three would be long-term building blocks, but they fit better here with difficulty moving them.

Long-term Building Blocks
Michael Busch, Shota Imanaga, young pitchers, prospects

We shouldn’t expect any young pitcher in their arbitration years to be traded this year. They’re trying to stockpile these guys, not deal with them in a last-place season. Michael Busch initially looks like the solution, or at least gets a longer leash to prove or disprove things.

Also, prepare to be disappointed if you are hoping to trade prospects for a rental type like Pete Alonso. It’s not the season to buy like that, and they are still hopeful to get production from this group.

Distressed Assets
Hector Neris, Christopher Morel

These two guys have struggled by any measure, and trading them now would equate to a sell-low or give-up deal. Maybe a team like the Marlins or Rockies would trade some assets to reclaim Morel if his season performance wasn’t too discouraging. Neris is the opposite; he would be bullpen depth for a contender. Neris is far more likely to be dealt than Morel, but it could be time to move on if they’ve seen enough of the Morel experience and his nose ring.

Valuable Veterans
Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon

Now we’re cooking with gas! All three of these guys will be in demand if Jed Hoyer decides to do a reset button. You know, not delete the whole game, but just a bit of a refresh here. We all know Bellinger's struggles, especially relative to his contract, and the return wouldn’t be too much, given his opt-out after this season. Nico Hoerner is the same, even if he has two more years on his deal. The Dodgers are an obvious fit and have plenty of kids to deal with, even MLB-ready ones like Michael Busch.

Jameson Taillon has been prominent in rumors lately due to his solid performance and semi-affordable contract. He’s a guy to watch given his experience and propensity to break down in the past. And don’t forget that he has experience in the AL East, which is always a bonus for contenders.

The Extras
Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, the catchers, Mike Tauchman

They could move them, but why? I won’t get anything back. If anything, these guys would go to the minors if a prospect is ready.

The Projects
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks

At some point, Jed might want to consolidate guys like this with apparent injury and performance risks for better, generational-type prospects. One example, which is not sourced, is that the Yankees wanted Cody Bellinger. Perhaps adding another prospect would entice them to relinquish Jasson Dominguez? Now, the aggregators can circle the wagons on my fake reporting. But that’s how this group would be used.

The Golden Ticket
Justin Steele

He would return the most from the roster. He gets dealt only if the front office is convinced the Cubs are three years or more away. I don’t see them deciding this, regardless of last place standings. Trading Steele would be controversial and cause fan angst, but it would also net some serious cheddar in the prospect realm.

The big picture is that the Cubs are not in a position to sell, nor have they constructed a roster conducive to such an action. With Jed coming up on a possible extension, it’s tricky. The front office finds themselves in an unenviable position this month.

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