What Changes Are on the Horizon for the Cubs' Starting Rotation?

[Jake Russell]

As the Cubs' starting rotation inches back toward full strength, the team could face a dilemma. What changes will they make to accommodate their returning southpaw, and the potential arrival of an elite prospect?

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

With Jordan Wicks beginning his rehab assignment this week, some interesting questions have come up about the Cubs rotation. Shota Imanaga has been lights-out this year, while Justin Steele (despite a slow, injury-disrupted start of the season) has a 3.24 ERA since 2022 and placed fifth in NL Cy Young voting last season. Jameson Taillon is in the second season of a four-year, $68-million contract (and pitching to good results this year), while Javier Assad has a minuscule 1.49 ERA–with a 2.47 ERA as a starter, dating back to his rookie season. As for Kyle Hendricks, Craig Counsell has confirmed that he will continue making starts for the time being. The question must be asked: What will the Cubs do with the rotation with some key contributors returning soon?

Obviously, Imanaga, Steele, and Taillon are guaranteed rotation spots at the moment. I’d like to think Assad is, as well, given how well he has performed. I think it would be hard to defend taking Assad out of the rotation at this point, but I find it equally unlikely that the Cubs run a six-man rotation. That arrangement means fewer innings for your best arms, which is fine if you don’t have a great top of the rotation. The Cubs, on the other hand, have Steele and Imanaga, who are both arguably aces. I’m not sure taking away innings from them in favor of Hendricks, or even Taillon, is advantageous to the Cubs.

The most logical solution is for the Cubs to move Hendricks out of the rotation, whether that be to the bullpen or by designating him for assignment--or even another IL stint (which seems unlikely). However, just because it’s the most logical, doesn’t mean it’s the most likely to happen. The Cubs certainly have shown a (well-earned) loyalty to Hendricks, and a willingness to stick with him through the tougher times (of which there have been too many the past few years). Plus, Hendricks is set to hit 10 years of service time right around the All-Star Break of this year, and I have a hard time believing the Cubs will get rid of one of their World Series heroes who is so close to such a huge career milestone. Whether that is right or wrong is a conversation that can be had, but it’s certainly a point to consider.

So, you have to ask whether or not a move to the bullpen could be in the cards. Hendricks doesn’t quite seem like the type of pitcher whose stuff would benefit from short bursts of high-intensity throwing, but it may be more plausible than people think. This is kind of comparing apples to oranges, and sample size caveats apply, but so far in 2024, Hendricks has allowed just a 2.57 ERA in the first inning, with a 28.6 K% and a 7.1 BB%. If we take a look at his first time through the order stats, he is allowing a 6.14 ERA, but that is coupled with a 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, and a ground-ball rate over 50%. So maybe (just maybe) there’s a chance he could be useful out of the bullpen? It seems unlikely, but that is definitely an option the Cubs may have to consider.

As I said earlier, Imanaga, Steele, and Taillon are almost locks to remain in the rotation. Assad seems as if he would be as well. The one thing to consider with Assad, though, is that he has had a swingman role in the past–and been successful with it. Plus, that was likely the role he would have entered the season with, had Steele not gotten injured. Assad also has much better underlying numbers this year: the strikeouts are up, the walks are down, and he is more effectively limiting hard contact. Jordan Wicks, though, has made some improvements, too. Despite lackluster results, Wicks has made some pretty big changes to his arsenal this season. Known for his changeup, the lefty had been a reverse splits guy in the minors. In 2023, across the top two levels of the minors, he had a K% of 29% versus righties and a BB% of 8.1%, versus a K% of 19.8% and BB% of 9.9% against lefties.

In 2024, Wicks has made drastic improvements to both his slider and his four-seam fastball. He’s added nearly 1 MPH to his four-seamer, and 2.1 inches of induced vertical break. On his slider, he added 3.3 inches of glove-side movement while actually throwing the pitch harder on average, which is an incredible feat. This should, theoretically, help him to neutralize lefties better.

I don’t think you can leave Wicks out of the rotation once he is healthy again; it shouldn’t even be a discussion. The worst thing the Cubs can do, in my opinion, is let Hendricks go down the Adam Wainwright road and have him throw uncompetitive start after uncompetitive start–especially given that the Cubs are competing for a playoff spot this year. I understand that front offices are always going to be more cautious than fans would prefer, but when Hendricks has back-to-back poor starts against the Pirates, it feels like his run might be over.

Essentially, the Cubs have three options: run a six-man rotation, cut bait with Hendricks, or move Hendricks to the bullpen. Each of the latter two options involves moving Wicks back into the rotation. I’m sure the Cubs' string of injuries discourages them from wanting to get rid of a starting pitcher completely, but that might be their best option, given they do have Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, and even Cade Horton at the ready (or nearly so). I’m thankful for everything that Hendricks has done for the organization, but once Wicks comes back, he should take that spot, and the organization shouldn’t look back.

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[Rex Buckingham]

Hendricks isn't a 10 and 5 guy yet? Ship him out asap. I'm all for being romantic about guys as a tiebreaker, but Hendricks is quite obviously the worst starting pitcher we have used this year. I'm not pining for Dan Straily or Julio Teheran, but any/all of Wicks, Wesneski, Brown and Horton seem like clearly better options for this team, even considering you would likely have more than a few growing pains with Horton if he were to come up. But if Cade Horton is your 8th starter, that's a good thing. 

I also believe we have the prospect depth to make a move for a starter if we need one in July. Alcantara and Triantos in particular are a couple guys I see somewhat squeezed out of future roster spots but who should have value on the trade market

[Bertz]

If Kyle was just a guy, I think you'd clearly phantom IL him again this week, and then probably cut him at some point in June/July when you need the 40 man spot.  As is there's some push/pull between doing right by a franchise icon and the fact that this is untenable.  Also the next two starts for this spot in the rotation are the Braves, a pretty unforgiving matchup, and the Brewers, a matchup of outsized importance.

IF the team holds off on cutting bait until Wicks comes back, I think the TTO numbers are of interest.  I wonder if we take a couple turns of letting him go just once through the order, serving as almost a jumbo opener?  His issue appears to be that essentially nothing but his changeup is working like he wants.  But if you limit teams to one look and pair him with a wildly different pitcher like Ben Brown, that might work.  At least worth giving a shot the 2-3 turns back through the rotation before Wicks comes back?