Article: When Should We Expect to See Justin Steele Again?

[Matthew Trueblood]

As the Chicago Cubs get ready to welcome one veteran starter back from the injured list, they face some interesting questions about their rotation. Hopefully, we're not far at all from seeing another key hurler, and even more difficult dilemmas.

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Steele went down with a hamstring strain on Opening Day, Mar. 28. Last week, on the debut episode of his new podcast (strictly speaking, I don't recommend listening to that show--it's not good--but there are some nuggets within), Steele talked about the quick thinking he did while making the play that resulted in the strain, and about his confidence that the injury isn't as bad as the similar one he suffered a few years ago. That's good news.

Obviously, though, he's still dealing with the problem. He's kept his arm moving throughout this down time, but that won't matter until the injury itself is healed. Let's turn to Baseball Prospectus's Return to Play Dashboard to estimate how long it will be before that's the case.

I searched for all instances of a pitcher (as opposed to a position player, who would face a different set of hurdles in rehabbing and taking such an injury back into game action) suffering an upper leg injury in either March or April, going back to 2021. Here's the snapshot of the data.

There's good news here. The median number of days missed by pitchers who suffer this type of injury at this time of year is 22, a milestone Steele will reach Friday. The average time is probably more telling, though, because of the caution the team is likely to exercise with an early-season injury and the variables involved here. Steele will need a rehab outing, if only because his ramp-up to a full starter-level workload had been disrupted even in his final preparatory outing in March when he was struck in the knee by that comebacker.

By all accounts, though, he's been able to do some work to stay ready while waiting for the injury to settle, and it's on the more mild end of what it might have been. It would be great if the Cubs could bring Steele back for the getaway day matinee against the Astros at Wrigley Field on Apr. 25, so he could pitch in front of the home crowd. It's probably more realistic, though, that he will return during their road trip to Boston and New York at the very end of the month, or at the start of May.

That Houston series begins a stretch of 15 games without a scheduled off day for the Cubs, so bringing Steele back in the middle of that would be huge. Surely, the team is trying to manage the innings of (at least) Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown, and they'll be looking for times when they can give Shota Imanaga an extra day, as well, while he acclimates to the United States's customary starter schedule. Steele's return would make all of that easier, though it would also force the team into some tough choices about whom to demote, and in what way.

Setbacks are always possible, but based on the type of injury he sustained and the scraps of news we've heard from him and the team about it, we should expect Steele back in roughly a fortnight. Until then, the team needs to stay afloat, but they've done so admirably to this point.

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[Bertz]

I believe the last update on Steele was that he would be "facing live hitters before the end of the next homestand."  That's vaguer than I'd like but I take that to be a sim game this weekend or early next week.  From there you figure he needs 2-3 rehab starts? 

So I think the over under is basically that off day on May 9th following the stretch of 16 straight.  I think outside of team context he'd probably rejoin the team for that road trip after, but given how banged up the team is already and how that stretch is probably only going to make it worse they might cut a corner and have him only do two rehab outings.