Article: Keegan Thompson Isn't Fixed. He Might Be More Broken Than Ever.

[Jason Ross]

The 2022 season saw two Cubs pitchers who had struggled with health and consistency break out: Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson. Armed with new pitches, better stuff and renewed health, both looked like they could play big roles in the Cubs' pitching future. One of those arms became a Cy Young contender; the other has fizzled out. What's wrong with Keegan Thompson?

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It wasn't long ago that Keegan Thomson was considered a key part of the Cubs pitching staff. Once a third-round selection out of Auburn, by the summer of 2022, the right-handed pitcher was poised to be a part of the Cubs' long-term future. Thompson was at the forefront of the sweeper revolution; showcasing a slider with far more horizontal than vertical action, and the results began to show it was quite a useful pitch, especially against right-handed batters.

The sweeper saw opponents hit just .158 and limited them to a .258 xwOBA. While he did not feature it prominently in 2022, the pitch began to look like a weapon. With a pitch like that, coupled with a cutter-fastball combination, you'd expect that Thompson would remain a viable arm out of the bullpen, at the very least. Yet, less two years later, the 29-year-old looks likely to be a 40-man casualty at some point soon.

Entering the 2023 season, Thompson was positioned well to be a multi-inning, high-leverage arm. As a reliever in the prior season, the right-hander had an impressive 30% strikeout rate, to go along with an opponent batting average of .156 and an xFIP of 3.30. Needless to say, these are pretty darn good numbers and someone you would expect to be a weapon in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings of tight baseball games. Despite this, the year did not go well for Thompson. Experiencing a 10% decline in strikeouts, a 5% rise in walk rate, and a 5.44 xFIP, Thompson was sent back to Triple-A.

Figuring out where things went wrong is a bit difficult, on the surface. Between '22 and '23, Thompson saw an increase in things such as first strike% and whiff%, as well as a decline in throwing meatballs. These things shouldn't signal a collapse in strikeout or walk rate. More strikes are good, more whiffs are good, fewer meatballs are good. 

Where the issues began were with the spin, tilt and stuff Thompson had been throwing. Below are the spin and tilt charts from Thompson's 2022 (left) and 2023 (right). Notice how the cutter has shifted. As well, notice the purple (changeup) being almost eliminated from the scatter plot. There was far less overlap of cutter/fastball.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One of the biggest issues, as well, is that Thompson's release point got lost from the two seasons. Again, the chart on the left is 2022, and the right, 2023. Notice how in 2022 the release points were all very concentrated. This likely allowed Thompson to hide his pitches more. While on the right, there is a clear gap. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If we zoom in further to the 2023 side, you'll notice that the cutter and the fastball seem to be the biggest culprits here. A lack of consistency with a release point could lead to higher walk rates (5% increase) a decline in strike-out rate (10% decline) and hitters hitting better because you're tipping pitches (a massive increase in xFIP). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keegan Thompson would be sent to Triple-A after just 30 innings with the Cubs in 2023 to work on himself and get himself right. Sadly, the results were not positive. A further decline in strikeout and walk rates would occur in Iowa, while seeing his xFIP at the level balloon to over 5.00. The culprit? Continued inconsistencies at the point of pitch release. 

As the right-hander entered the winter, it looked as though he would likely have to start the season in Iowa again to show improved consistency. For Thompson, a slight lifeline came in the form of the Tampa Bay Rays, as reports were that the Rays were interested in Thompson as a potential piece of the return for starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow. These hopes would be dashed, as the Dodgers acquired the former Ray in a trade later in December, and Thompson would remain with the Cubs.

Thus far in 2024, Thompson has fallen further away from the pitcher he once was. With a decline in fastball velocity of 2 miles per hour, Thompson's overall numbers are not looking great. Granted, much of this has to do with his initial outing, in which he surrendered three runs total and one homer, while striking out one in his first inning. He still doesn't appear to be "right" with the decline in stuff. He's barely thrown the sweeper this season in four outings and hasn't thrown a fastball over 94 mph. His Barrel% is over 24%, and the launch angle against him is in the 20s as well. Despite the lack of runs in his last few efforts, guys are hitting him. 

I don't like writing this eulogy. Keegan Thompson looked, in 2022, like a great story and an early pitch-lab success for a team that had been starved for a homegrown win. Instead, Thompson has struggled with mechanical consistency and a drop in velocity. If there's a silver lining, it's that in the past, the stuff has been good enough to play up, and the Cubs have squeezed juice out of arms. However, if he's going to be giving up this kind of hard contact and with a velocity drop, there doesn't seem to be a lot of time left for Thompson.

The Cubs will need some relievers on the main roster, and they'll have to eventually find 40-man slots for guys like Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, and Cade Horton who could all be up later. After we learned Thursday that José Cuas will be optioned to Iowa, there's speculation that Thompson will come up in his stead. Based on what we've seen from him this spring, that doesn't seem likely to solve as many problems as it creates. Unless Thompson turns something around sooner rather than later, he's very unlikely to contribute positively to the bullpen. He might be called up, but it could be just to act as an innings sponge sometime this weekend, with a DFA waiting on the other side so that the team can turn to a reliever with more upside left.

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