Article: Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates

[Brandon Glick]

The NL Central projects to be a competitive (albeit mediocre) division this season. Though loaded with young talent, the Pittsburgh Pirates have the look of the worst team among the five.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Pirates finished in fourth place in the NL Central last season, posting a 76-86 record. Their -98 run differential was third-worst in the National League, and the fourth-worst in all of baseball. Pittsburgh’s biggest issue was on the mound, where they posted a 4.60 ERA (21st in MLB) and 1,363 strikeouts (20th). That’s not to say the Pirates were any better at the plate, where they hit just 159 home runs (28th) and batted just .239 as a team (24th). 

The team had a relatively quiet offseason, outside of re-signing outfielder Andrew McCutchen to a one-year, $5 million deal and handing ace Mitch Keller a four-year, $71.5 million extension. As always, the team mostly sat out the free agent market, making a few notable moves around the margins while barely losing anyone of note. (They didn't really have anyone to lose.) As such, the team will be mostly banking on major internal improvements to take the next step forward in 2024.

Projected Record
FanGraphs (ZiPS): 77-85 (5th in NL Central)
Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA): 73-89 (5th in NL Central)

Key Additions

• LHP Aroldis Chapman 

• LHP Martín Pérez

• LHP Marco Gonzales

• OF Michael A. Taylor

• 1B Rowdy Tellez

• C Yasmani Grandal

Key Losses

• RHP Vince Velasquez

• RHP Duane Underwood Jr.

• RHP Chase DeJong

• IF Miguel Andújar

• RHP Johan Oviedo (Tommy John Surgery)

• C Endy Rodriguez (UCL Surgery)

Projected Opening Day Lineup

• C Henry Davis

• 1B Rowdy Tellez

• 2B Jared Triolo

• SS Oneil Cruz

• 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

• LF Jack Suwinski

• CF Michael A. Taylor

• RF Bryan Reynolds 

• DH Andrew McCutchen

Projected Opening Day Pitching Staff: Rotation

• RHP Mitch Keller

• LHP Martín Pérez

• LHP Marco Gonzales

• LHP Bailey Falter

• RHP Jared Jones

Projected Opening Day Pitching Staff: Key Relievers

• LHP Josh Fleming (Long Relief)

• LHP Aroldis Chapman (Setup)

• LHP Ryan Borucki

• RHP David Bednar (Closer)

Scouting Report

While the Pirates went 76-86 last season, they played like a 71-91 team according to Pythagorean Win-Loss. They started last season on a scintillating 20-9 run, but they ran out of gas quickly and didn’t have another winning month until September. However, they did play well in the second half of 2023, finishing their post-All-Star break schedule with a 35-37 record.

Most of the Pirates’ upside currently exists in their farm system. Last year, McCutchen led the team with a 115 wRC+, which was tied for lowest leading mark on any team in baseball last season (Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals). Their best players on the major-league roster are catcher Henry Davis, a former first overall selection; third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who finally ended Nolan Arenado’s Gold Glove hegemony at the hot corner in the National League last season; shortstop Oneil Cruz, a 6-7 behemoth with a true five-tool profile but massive swing-and-miss issues; left fielder Jack Suwinski, who was a big-time three-true-outcomes guy with 26 homers, a 32.2% K%, and a 14% BB% in 2023; and right fielder Bryan Reynolds, a one-time All Star who’s posted a 113 OPS+ or better in every season of his career (besides the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).

Of all those guys, though, only Cruz has true star potential. He hit 17 home runs in just 361 plate appearances in his rookie season, but he struck out 35% of the time and only posted a 105 wRC+. After missing nearly all of last season with a broken leg, he returned to Spring Training this year in mid-season form, hitting seven home runs but striking out 14 times in 49 plate appearances. If he can get his contact issues under control, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with and a perennial MVP candidate. If not, he’ll be a Patrick Wisdom-esque shortstop, though his floor is higher because of his rocket arm and blazing speed.

On the pitching side of things, the team is patiently awaiting the arrival of franchise savior Paul Skenes, who will pitch for Triple-A Indianapolis out of Spring Training this year despite being selected first overall in the 2023 MLB Draft just nine months ago. Jared Jones, FanGraphs’s 62nd overall prospect, made the team after not allowing a run in the Grapefruit League. He’s got a high-90s fastball and good command up in the zone, though his secondaries need a lot of refining. As such, Jones will likely see some inflated ERA and home run totals in his rookie season, but he should also rack up plenty of strikeouts. 

The team’s ace, Mitch Keller, signed the aforementioned extension early in the spring, securing his spot atop the rotation as the team waits out Skenes’s ascendence to the majors. Keller is coming off a career year with 3.3 fWAR, and though his 4.21 ERA and 4.18 xERA aren’t much to gawk over, his 3.80 FIP is suggestive of a better pitcher than the results showed. A couple notable splits to look out for: Keller’s struggles on the road (5.35 ERA in 104 road innings; 2.90 ERA in 90 home innings) and in the second half (5.59 ERA in 77 second-half innings; 3.31 ERA in 117 first-half innings). He can be a valuable innings eater in the Pirates rotation for years to come, but he’ll have to maintain his performance across a full 162-game slate to be worth the team's investment. 

Other than them, though, the Pirates don’t have many pitchers to speak of. David Bednar remains one of the best closers in the game, and Aroldis Chapman had a bounce-back year last season with the Royals and Texas Rangers, but this team is lacking impact arms for now. 

This will probably be another “retooling” year for the Bucs, as they hope for some internal improvements from their young bats and try to flip some veteran arms at the trade deadline for prospects. Skenes is on his way, and when that day comes, the division will quiver with fear. Until then, though, the Pirates remain on the periphery of the Wild Card and NL Central races.

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[CubinNY]

The Pirates are going to finish higher than the Cardinals this year. 

[Derek_Lee_Truther]

24 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The Pirates are going to finish higher than the Cardinals this year. 

Just wait until Lance Lynn invents a time machine. Then you'll be sorry