Article: 2024 NL West Preview: The Dodgers Aren't the Cubs' Problem, Yet

[RandallPnkFloyd]

As we preview the coming season from a Cubs-colored lens, let's dig into the NL West. It's the home of the sport's top juggernaut, but there are also some legitimate secondary contenders who will be thorns in the Cubs' side this summer.

Image courtesy of © Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters via USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 iteration of the National League West figures to be less intriguing than past years'. The 2022 and 2023 seasons saw the San Diego Padres take massive swings to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers. Those ultimately failed, and the Padres took the all-too-familiar route of “scaling back" their payroll. The 2023 season did feature the arrival of the young Arizona Diamondbacks, but it remains to be seen just how competitive they can be in the larger context of their division. 

Ultimately, 2024 figures to be exactly what we’d expect. The Dodgers signed and acquired just about every superstar available. They’re the reigning champions, and they will be for the foreseeable future. The Diamondbacks are a playoff threat, sure. But they remain an around-the-margins type of squad. They can beat you in a short series, but they’re not scaring anyone in the 162-game regular season slate. Beyond those two, you’ve got a pair of middling teams in San Diego and San Francisco, as well as whatever is happening in Colorado. 

Big-picture, there are a wealth of fun players within the division. Some of them even play for teams that aren’t the Dodgers. But when it comes down to it, you’re probably not getting genuine title contention outside of Los Angeles. Despite the pessimistic outlook, here are some things to bear in mind for the NL West in 2024.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected Record: 93-69 (FanGraphs); 101-61 (Baseball Prospectus)
Offseason Moves:

• Notable Additions: Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, James Paxton

• Notable Subtractions: J.D. Martinez, Julio Urías, Lance Lynn

Scouting Report
Do we need to? At this point, you know the roster and you know the narratives, the latter of which ranged from “They’re the only team trying to win a title this side of Atlanta,” to “The Dodgers are bad for baseball!” Their offense features Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts. Their pitching staff will roll out Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Walker Buehler. They’re going to score a ton of runs. They’re not going to allow very many. Anything less than 100 wins probably makes it a disappointing regular season. 

Big Question: How will Mookie Betts, Starting Shortstop play out? 
It’s a hilarious offensive setup. The pitching upside is in the stratosphere. It’s probably only on the defense where we see legitimate questions. Mookie Betts is now the starting shortstop. His handling of the spot merits some concern. Max Muncy was also one of the worst fielding third basemen in baseball. Last year, the Dodgers were able to compensate for some of Muncy’s shortcomings, because Miguel Rojas was adept at moving to his right. Betts hasn't yet demonstrated the ability to make that difficult play consistently, so you have to wonder what that side of their infield will look like from a performance standpoint. 

Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected Record: 83-79 (FanGraphs); 85-77 (Baseball Prospectus)
Offseason Moves:

• Notable Additions: Joc Pederson, Eugenio Suárez, Randal Grichuk, Eduardo Rodríguez

• Notable Subtractions: Evan Longoria, Tommy Pham 

Scouting Report
The Snakes were a middle-tier offensive operation last year. They didn’t strike out, but nor did they get on base at an elite clip or showcase much power. Their pitching was equally competent, but shy of dominant. They were active this winter, in a scattershot kind of way, in pursuit of a more legitimate playoff posture for 2024. Rodríguez gives them stability in the rotation, while each of Suárez and Pederson gives them some thump at the plate. They also re-signed Lourdes Gurriel, Jr.

Speed and defense remain their trademarks. Their 166 steals trailed only Cincinnati for the highest mark in the league last year. Their 31 Outs Above Average ranked second in the bigs, and their 46 Defensive Runs Saved ranked fourth. Their offseason shuffling makes them better, but they’re still built to succeed through the chaos on the bases and the quality of their gloves, and bringing in Suárez to play third could actually weaken their team defense.

Big Question: To what extent can the gloves cover for the bats?
A rather shocking World Series run made the Diamondbacks the buzzy contenders for LA's title, and they have a right to feel that way even after the late-winter additions the Padres and Giants each made. They probably still won’t be able to keep up with the Hollywood stars over 162, but it'll be interesting to watch the difference in the defense. Arizona was an elite defensive squad last year. The Dodgers’ glovework could be what ultimately leads to their demise (if anything does). How much that bridges the gap between the two, though, remains a question. 

San Francisco Giants
Projected Record: 81-81 (FanGraphs); 83-79 (Baseball Prospectus)
Offseason Moves:

• Notable Additions: Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler, Jordan Hicks, Blake Snell

• Notable Subtractions: Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, Mitch Haniger, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani

Scouting Report
The Giants’ pitching ranked 11th in the league in ERA (3.91) and fourth in FIP (3.98). They featured the league’s highest ground-ball rate by a fairly wide margin (48.7%) and a defensive infrastructure competent enough to support it. Jordan Hicks should add more punch to the former (though it remains to be seen how he’ll succeed in a starting capacity; we've seen him struggle in previous attempts to claim that role), and Matt Chapman will further solidify their defense. Of course, they were also 24th in runs scored (674), 23rd in ISO (.149), and struck out at the league’s sixth-highest rate (24.5 percent). Any hope for contention from this club is probably going to rely heavily on that side of the ball. Chapman and Soler should help in terms of power production, at least (especially as right-handed hitters). Lee gives them a dynamic table-setter, as well.

Big Question: Will the offensive additions help, given their home ballpark?
San Francisco’s 30-homer drought isn’t a secret at this point. The last Giant to hit that many in one season was Barry Bonds, in 2004. The last righty to do it was Jeff Kent, in 2002. Soler’s done it twice in his career. Chapman’s done it once, but has two seasons of 27. Oracle Park has one of the lowest three-year park factors for home runs in the league, depressing them by 16 percent, but Soler and Chapman have the kind of prodigious power to test its confinement.

San Diego Padres
Projected Record: 81-81 (FanGraphs); 80-82 (Baseball Prospectus)
Offseason Moves:

• Notable Additions: Yuki Matsui, Woo-Suk Go, Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, Enyel De Los Santos, Dylan Cease

• Notable Subtractions: Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Josh Hader

Scouting Report
The 2023 season for the Padres made very little sense. They featured Cy Young winner Blake Snell in their rotation. Their staff, as a whole, was tied for the best ERA in the National League (3.73). They scored 752 runs, which left them sixth in the NL and fed into a +104 run differential. Yet, they finished 82-80, needing a late run to even scratch above .500. The two phases of the game were just never on the same page. When the pitching held up, the offense couldn’t score. When the offense came through, the pitching faltered.

They still boast Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts in the lineup. Their No. 2 prospect, Jackson Merrill, had an outstanding spring and made the roster as the starting center fielder. They just added Dylan Cease to a rotation that has plenty of upside following the trade of Juan Soto. But it remains to be seen whether they can find the balance that eluded them all year in 2023.

Big Question: Can the starting staff support the bullpen? 
San Diego lost Snell, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo to free agency over the winter. Snell led the starting group in innings last year, with Lugo second and Wacha fourth. That’s a lot of innings for which to compensate. Cease averaged a shade over five innings per start last year. Michael King is converting to a sustained starting role for the first time, and none of Vásquez, Brito, or Matt Waldon were full-time starters last year. It’s an interesting group with massive upside, and the Friars do have a very deep bullpen, too. Many of their relief pieces are funky or untested, though, which will make it important that the starters chew up some innings and keep pressure off them.

Colorado Rockies
Projected Record: 59-103 (FanGraphs); 57-105 (Baseball Prospectus)
Offseason Moves:

• Notable Additions: Dakota Hudson, Cal Quantrill

• Notable Subtractions: Brent Suter

Scouting Report
The Rockies had the worst pitching staff in baseball by ERA (5.68) last year. They were 18th in runs scored. They’re projected to be the worst team in the NL, according to multiple outlets. There just isn’t a lot of hope here. Nolan Jones is good, probably. Brenton Doyle is a fun defender in center. Kris Bryant could maybe be healthy as a full-time first baseman. But what are we doing here?

Big Question: Will they ever be even a little bit interesting? 
I am simply begging the Rockies to give me a reason to remember that they exist.

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In addition to the presumptive division champions, there are three viable Wild Card hopefuls here. While the teams of the West need not be the Cubs' primary concern this season, they're relevant to them, because the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks have left the path to a non-NL Central championship playoff berth feeling pretty narrow.

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