Article: 2024 Chicago Cubs Positional Preview: High-Leverage Relief Pitching

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Much will be asked of the 2024 Chicago Cubs bullpen, especially the firemen at the end of the game. This group has never before met the challenge of locking down leads for a contender all the way through to October. Can they do it?

Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Like the starting rotation, the relief corps for the Chicago Cubs saw only light turnover this winter. Of the 10 arms who logged the most innings out of the bullpen in 2023, only Michael Fulmer and Michael Rucker did not return. Otherwise, it’s a host of re-tooled veterans and high-upside arms comprising the group.

This is even more true of the back end. While names like Yency Almonte or Edwin Escobar could be effective as situational arms, those that made up the late innings last year are poised to return in similar capacities for 2024. Only Héctor Neris brings new blood to the eighth and ninth frames of close games. There was some buzz about an established closer, but the organization’s reluctance to pay heavily for relief arms – especially on multi-year deals – quickly ruled them out. Nonetheless, we’re still looking at a fairly stable foursome to round things out.

The Locks: Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr., Héctor Neris
2023 Stats
Alzolay: 58 G, 64.0 IP, 9.42 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 2.67 ERA, 3.02 FIP
Merryweather: 69 G, 72.0 IP, 12.25 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.38 ERA, 3.52 FIP
Leiter Jr: 69 G, 64.1 IP, 10.77 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, 3.50 ERA, 3.77 FIP
Neris (with HOU): 71 G, 68.1 IP, 10.14 K/9, 4.08 BB/9, 1.71 ERA, 3.83 FIP

2024 Projections (ZiPS)
Alzolay: 42 G, 74 IP, 9.40 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 3.73 ERA, 3.91 FIP
Merryweather: 56 G, 56 IP, 11.90 K/9, 3.81 BB/9, 3.97 ERA, 3.82 FIP
Leiter Jr: 45 G, 73 IP, 9.25 K/9, 3.58 BB/9, 4.32 ERA, 4.46 FIP
Neris: 62 G, 57 IP, 10.29 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, 3.90 ERA, 4.12 FIP

Scouting Report
While previous starting experience isn’t a rarity among the Cubs’ relief arms, the full-time conversion of Adbert Alzolay to the pen was one of the more enjoyable storylines in 2023. Having struggled as a starter – predominantly with health issues – the Cubs rode him out in relief full-time last year. His four-seam/sinker/slider mix played exceptionally well in that role, as his 22 saves paced the team’s relievers by a wide margin. He struggled a bit in the second half, with contact trends indicating far more line drives than in the season’s first half, in particular. But, by all accounts, he’s the guy in the ninth again for 2024.

Merryweather was the poster boy for the type of success the Cubs want to have with their relievers. He had previously struggled to hang on to opportunities in Toronto, ending up as a waiver claim by the team in January of last year. After getting in the lab, he picked up just a little bit of velocity and went super slider-heavy. The slide piece accounted for almost half of his pitches thrown, up from about 20 percent in 2022. That pitch generated whiffs at a 45-percent clip, with virtually everything in the swing-and-miss game representing a career-best for Merryweather. 

Leiter represents a similar trend to each, in that he’s spun from the same reclamation web as Merryweather while also coming off a shaky second half in the way that Alzolay was perceived to be. In Leiter’s case, his strikeout rate dipped, his walk rate rose, and he gave up a touch harder contact that was more likely to be in the air than the first half. Regardless, he and his splitters and his reverse splits will be heavily featured once again.

Neris will be tasked with bringing some stability to the group. He has experience pitching in high-leverage situations, especially coming off a two-year run with Houston. He does tend to let command get away from him on occasion, but brings more punchout potential than many of the other options, both in this portion of the bullpen and elsewhere.

The challenge for the late-inning guys is going to be remaining fresh for a full year. The onus is probably more on Craig Counsell in that respect, but given that Alzolay and (especially) Leiter were at varying levels of “cooked” by September, the organization will want to set up this group for more longevity, in the absence of more impactful bullpen additions.

Other Options
We’ll circle back to the rest of the relief arms in the near future, but it’ll be interesting to see if any of the fringe arms or swing guys work their way into higher-leverage situations as the season progresses. José Cuas looked decent in a small sample. Daniel Palencia and Luke Little are high-upside power arms. Maybe Carl Edwards Jr. works his way back into the fold on a level we didn’t expect. There are bodies there, but their reliability in those late innings remains to be seen.

The Big Question: Is there enough late-inning volume? 
There are questions as to the reliability of Alzolay in a ninth-inning role. I don’t necessarily have those questions. He didn’t take over the gig until the summer; minor performance setbacks were inevitable. ZiPS likes him as the closer again, to the tune of 28 saves. His arsenal plays well. He’s the guy.

Beyond him, though, you have to wonder how many arms can step onto the bump in those “clutch” situations. Not that teams load up their bullpen with arms they deem “late-inning guys” necessarily. But even within those four, you do have to wonder about the sustainability. Two reclamation projects and a 34-year-old arm who outpitched his peripherals to an extent don’t engender ironclad confidence at a position with a high rate of volatility to begin with. Again, it’s not necessarily something teams can prepare for, but it’s at least something to be aware of. Of course, that’s also why they’re paying Craig Counsell the big bucks.

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[painhertz]

I guess I'd be afraid if ZIPS actually liked a Cub.