Article: Chicago Cubs 2024 Spring Training Storylines: Hayden Wesneski's Role

[matto1233]

As spring training reaches full steam with the start of Cactus League play this weekend, the Chicago Cubs have several key storylines to watch. One vital one will be the development and role assignment of one of their most intriguing young arms.

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Following a 2022 debut in which he threw 33 innings, accumulated 0.7 FanGraphs WAR, and posted a 2.18 ERA, expectations were always going to be far too high for Hayden Wesneski coming into 2023. Then, the young right-hander struck out 22 hitters in just 17 spring training innings last year to earn the fifth rotation spot for the Cubs, and the sky, it seemed, was the limit.

Since you’re reading this article on a Chicago Cubs-focused website, you probably know how that went. Wesneski was mostly bad in 11 appearances and 10 starts prior to losing his rotation spot. He allowed 13 home runs in 50 ⅔ innings, and put up a 5.33 ERA during that time.

Wesneski spent the remainder of the season shuttling between the bullpen and Triple-A Iowa, to fine (but certainly not great) results. He struck out 43 in 38 ⅔ innings after losing his spot in the rotation. That’s good! He also walked 19 hitters. That’s bad!

His 3.72 ERA was decent enough, but his 4.86 FIP suggests some overperformance there, and a 3.72 ERA is just not that great for a guy coming out of the bullpen anymore, anyway.

Heading into 2024, the Cubs have several additional options in the rotation that they didn’t at the start of last season. Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Hendricks are all back, and figure to take up three rotation spots. Shota Imanaga was brought in to bolster the rotation behind Steele. That means Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly, and Wesneski are all left to battle for that fifth spot. And that doesn’t even include Ben Brown, who is knocking on the door. Caleb Kilian is also still on the team, and might get another shot at some point.

Luckily for all of those guys, as Jed Hoyer always says, it takes far more than five starting pitchers to get through a season. So, what might the role in 2024 look like for Wesneski?

This entire conversation starts, and ends, with Wesneski developing a pitch that he can use to get lefties out. Recently, I took a look at Jameson Taillon and his struggles with getting left-handed hitters out in 2023. They hit for a .420 wOBA against Taillon in the first half of the season. Wesneski was almost that bad for the entire season, with lefties slashing .298/.369/.617, good for a .411 wOBA. That was 12th worst in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs.

So what gives? Wesneski has an elite slider that he relies on to get right-handed hitters out. And it works very well for him! Right-handed hitters slashed just .202/.269/.348 against the Houston native, and struck out 25.9 percent of the time. Per Baseball Savant, hitters slugged just .231 against his slider, and it was worth eight runs on its own.

The issue here is that Wesneski doesn’t have another reliable pitch to get outs. At least not yet. As a matter of fact, he didn’t have a single other pitch that had a positive run value last season. And as most are aware, sliders are one of the least effective pitches to throw to a hitter with the platoon advantage, since it breaks toward the hitter, not away from them. So you can see where his issue with getting lefties out stems from.

While the slider did hold up pretty well against lefties from a results standpoint, he clearly wasn’t all that comfortable throwing it. He went to that offering 42.6 percent of the time against righties, by far his most-used pitch. His slider usage dropped all the way to 27 percent against lefties. Instead, he used his four-seam fastball most often, and it got crushed to the tune of a .488 wOBA. 

For me, Wesneski’s role in 2024 starts in the bullpen, until he proves he can get lefties out, or at least not allow them all to turn into prime Hank Aaron. If deployed correctly, which I have faith in Craig Counsell to do, he absolutely has value there.

He’ll almost certainly have opportunities to show a refined approach against hitters with the platoon advantage. I am sure teams would throw left-handed pinch hitters at him often. Hopefully Wesneski worked on both his changeup and cutter this offseason, either of which would give him a much better chance at retiring lefties. It will be most important to watch those two pitches this spring in Cactus League action.

If he proves he has developed something in his arsenal beyond the slider, or is successful with a new approach to lefties, he should be right in line to make a start as soon as one is available. But until that happens, I think Wesneski’s 2024 role remains out of the bullpen, deployed exclusively against right-handed hitters as often as possible.

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What will you watch most closely as Wesneski and the Cubs ramp up over the next month? Join the conversation right here.

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[Bertz]

I'm expecting Wesneski to start, whether that's at Chicago or Iowa.  I think, particularly given that Jed didn't tap into any of the SP depth in trade, it would have been very easy to give him the Michael Fulmer slider specialist role.  Instead, the team traded for Yency Almonte to be New Fulmer.  That's not to say we can't have two or anything, but adding Almonte was a weird choice if Hayden is going to be in short relief in the immediate term.

Wesneski is not my current top choice to win the 5th starter spot as is, but ironically I'm hoping he wins it.  I think his issues are pretty clear cut, and so if the team at the end of March thinks he's checked all the boxes and is one of their top 5 options I will absolutely believe them.  And I think his ceiling is substantially higher than any of Smyly/Assad/Wicks.

[matto1233]

7 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm expecting Wesneski to start, whether that's at Chicago or Iowa.  I think, particularly given that Jed didn't tap into any of the SP depth in trade, it would have been very easy to give him the Michael Fulmer slider specialist role.  Instead, the team traded for Yency Almonte to be New Fulmer.  That's not to say we can't have two or anything, but adding Almonte was a weird choice if Hayden is going to be in short relief in the immediate term.

Wesneski is not my current top choice to win the 5th starter spot as is, but ironically I'm hoping he wins it.  I think his issues are pretty clear cut, and so if the team at the end of March thinks he's checked all the boxes and is one of their top 5 options I will absolutely believe them.  And I think his ceiling is substantially higher than any of Smyly/Assad/Wicks.

A lot of people seem to have much higher expectations for Almonte than I do. I hope I am wrong there. 

From a development standpoint, Iowa might be the best starting point. Though I also think that even last year’s version of Wesneski, particularly if deployed intelligently, is one of the 13-14 best pitchers on the Cubs. And for a team that should be serious about making the playoffs, he’ll have to be on the roster.