Article: Cubs Trade Targets: Two Marlins Pitchers Who Fit The Roster Before Spring Training

[Brandon Glick]

With pitchers and catchers set to report for the Cubs on February 14th, the team could look to bring in a few more reinforcements on the mound ahead of the 2024 season. 

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The North Siders have already made a few moves to beef up their pitching staff, signing Shota Imanaga and Hector Neris for the rotation and bullpen, respectively. They also added Yency Almonte in the Michael Busch-Jackson Ferris swap. Combined with the expected internal improvements of the younger pitchers on the roster - Jordan Wicks, Luke Little, and Daniel Palencia chief among them - the team appears to be doing the necessary work to trot out an above-average run-prevention crew next season. 

However, it’s worth noting a lot of the offseason work has merely been about replacing lost talent; Marcus Stroman departed for New York after opting out of the final year of his contract, and Michael Fulmer recently signed with the Boston Red Sox as he rehabs his late-season UCL tear. On the margins, Brad Boxberger had his mutual option declined, Michael Rucker was designated for assignment (and subsequently traded to the Philadelphia Phillies), the San Diego Padres plucked Jeremiah Estrada off waivers, Brandon Hughes signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks after he was non-tendered, and Codi Heuer is still lingering on the free agent market after his non-tender. 

The Cubs are probably neutral right now regarding the added pitching talent versus the loss this offseason. If they want to improve, they should probably turn their attention to Miami, where the Marlins currently house some intriguing arms that shouldn’t cost too much relative to the rest of the trade market. 

Edward Cabrera
Cabrera is a 25-year-old starting pitcher with a 4.01 career ERA who isn’t arbitration-eligible until 2026. 

If you need more of a sales pitch than that, he posted a 3.01 ERA in 71 ⅔ innings with a 1.074 WHIP and 137 ERA+ last year. This year, his ERA rose to 4.24 in 99 ⅔ innings, though he improved his FIP (4.59 in 2022 to 4.43 in 2023), his homers allowed per nine innings (1.3 to 1.0), and strikeouts per nine innings (9.4 to 10.7). Another sign that points to positive regression is his batting average on balls in play: after posting a .207 figure in 2022, his BABIP inflated to .285 this year. 

If Cabrera is going to improve beyond his current third or fourth starter role, he’ll have to limit the free passes he issues (15.2% walk rate in 2023) and get his exit velocity numbers back to 2022 levels (85.3 miles per hour). Even if he can’t be projected as a future front-line starter, he’s still an extremely valuable piece that will cost a pretty penny on the trade market. Rarely are starters available amid their athletic primes and under team control for five-plus years. Expect If the Cubs are going to make a move for him, the price will be unsightly. 

Proposed Trade:

Cubs Receiver: Edward Cabrera

Marlins Receive: Christopher Morel, Ben Brown

Somewhat limiting his trade value is that Cabrera missed a chunk of last season with a right shoulder injury. His age and relatively clean past bill of health should assuage most concerns, but shoulder issues for pitchers are always frightening. 

Ken Rosenthal cited Texas Rangers infielder Ezequiel Duran as "the kind of player the Marlins likely would want for Cabrera." However, it’s worth noting that the Rangers hold Duran in higher regard than the rest of the league. Duran is a former top-100 prospect who broke out during the Rangers’ World Series campaign in 2023, posting a .768 OPS (106 OPS+) in 122 games. Like Cabrera, Duran is team-controlled through the 2028 season, making him a valuable long-term asset. 

The Cubs' closest analog to Duran - a high-upside, established major leaguer with plenty of team control - is Morel. The 24-year-old hit 26 homers and slashed .247/.313/.508 in a strong sophomore season. Like Duran, Morel can play all over the diamond, though Duran’s versatility is more of a skillset than a consequence of finding a long-term defensive home. 

Morel comfortably fits the Marlins’ top need of a power bat, though the Cubs aren’t exactly flush with those, either. It would be interesting to see if the Cubs could convince the Marlins to take a pure prospect (Own Cassie?) rather than a young major leaguer, but it would require one of their top bats regardless. 

The inclusion of Brown is more than just a sweetener, though Cabrera would overstuff an already deep cache of starting pitchers in Chicago. The Marlins could be more patient with Brown as he develops as a starter, or they could take the plunge and try to convert him into a dominant fastball-curveball reliever. 

Tanner Scott
Tanner Scott was a longtime Baltimore Orioles prospect and reliever before getting traded to the Marlins in 2022 for a few low-level prospects. After a breakout season in Miami in 2023, he’ll cost a lot more from a prospective trade partner. 

Scott posted a 2.31 ERA in 74 appearances last year (78 innings pitched), backed by a sterling 2.17 FIP and 195 ERA+. He struck out 12 batters per nine innings, walked 2.8 batters per nine innings, and gave up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings. In other words, he was a dominant, workhorse reliever.

After accruing just one save in five years in Baltimore, he’s got 32 in his two years with the Marlins (12 in 2023). As a lefty reliever, he’d also provide extra value to a Cubs team with only a few lefties in the pen (Luke Little, Drew Smyly). 

Proposed Trade:

Cubs Receiver: Tanner Scott

Marlins Receive: Alexander Canario OR Matt Mervis & Caleb Killian

OR 

Hayden Wesneski & Patrick Wisdom

There are a variety of trade packages here, depending on the Marlins’ internal valuations of the Cubs’ fringe prospects. Still, they all accomplish the same thing: the Marlins receive a power bat and young arm, while the Cubs get Scott without sacrificing a fundamental piece of their 2024 roster. 

Scott only has two years of arbitration left before he hits free agency, and his closer bona fides aren’t as established as someone like Emmanuel Clase, so he won’t be able to garner a top-100 prospect on his own. That being said, he’s still an effective left-handed reliever under 30, which is a pretty attractive set of characteristics to have on the trade market. 

The Cubs probably won’t fret too much over parting with Wisdom or Mervis now that Michael Busch is in town and likely manning first or third base. Losing Killian or Wesneski before giving them a full chance to work through their early-career hiccups would sting, but this is a win-now move, and the two right-handers are currently the Cubs’ 8th and 9th starters and probably destined for mop-up/long-man duty in the bullpen for the foreseeable future anyways. 

Canario is the biggest name on here, and the Cubs would be remiss to lose someone with such a high-level, blue-chip skill (his power). However, at least the outfield is locked down for the next few years, with Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Ian Happ all under contract, and the Cubs have a wave of young position players coming up through the minors behind Canario. 

Making either of these moves for Scott or Cabrera (or perhaps both) would be more of a luxury than a necessity, especially in the face of the Cubs’ ongoing pursuits of Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman on the free-agent market. “There’s no such thing as enough pitching” is a typical phrase for a reason, though, and the Cubs would be wise to grab another established arm before the season begins.

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[muntjack]

Doesn't PCA provide that exact skillset? Seems dubious moving assets for an older version of what already exists.

[Rex Buckingham]

Cabrera seems too risky to give up Morel AND Brown... I know that's probably his value, but he just hasn't thrown many innings, and add in that shoulder injury and I'm out on him... 

Scott on the other hand seems to fit the Cubs like a glove - and if that value is anywhere near what it takes to get him, I'm making that deal yesterday.