Article: 2024 Prospect Previews: Matt Shaw

[Jamie Cameron]

Whether he's an immediate candidate to take over at the hot corner, a bit more of a project with a versatile role, or excellent trade bait, there's no question the Cubs' first-round pick from 2023 has a big year ahead. Let's take a look.

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

Selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Matt Shaw was one of a cluster of outstanding college bats with defensive homes on the dirt. After a professional debut in which he saw three levels of minor-league ball, what can Cubs fans expect from an encore? The prospect preview series will detail the stories of a number of Cubs draft picks from 2023, detailing their signing and skillsets, and setting expectations for 2024.

Draft Context
The Cubs entered the 2023 draft with no inherent advantages, owners of an $8,962,000 million bonus pool that was good for 19th in baseball. The Cubs only had one selection in the top 50, 13th overall, with a slot allotment of $4,848,000. What they did have, though, was a historically strong draft class from which to draw, making their selection of Matt Shaw look like a slam dunk a few short months later.

It’s worth revisiting how the 2023 pool of draftable talent became such an embarrassment of riches. The 2020 draft was shortened to five rounds due to COVID-19. Organizations had limited access to prospects, resulting in an inflated number of prep prospects going to college, with the majority of them draftable in 2023. Add that to a prep class full of excellent up-the-middle prospects, and 2023 looks like the strongest draft class since 2011 (in which 17 of the top 46 picks became MLB All-Stars).

Scouting and Signing
Shaw and Tommy Troy went into draft day as the two college prospects who most obviously mirrored each other. Both played on the dirt in college. Both prospects are carried by their offensive profile. Both had stellar 2023 college seasons. They were drafted 12th and 13th overall, by Arizona and Chicago, respectively.

Shaw managed a .341/.445/.697 line with 24 home runs and 18 stolen bases for a Maryland team that was easily the class of the Big Ten. Shaw’s swing matches his aggressive approach at the plate. It features a variable leg kick that alters based on the count. Despite this quirk, he's consistently short to the ball, driving it consistently with power to all fields.

Defensively, Shaw has good lateral speed and defensive actions, but a fringy arm that will likely dictate a future at second base. His offense will profile well at any defensive position on the dirt, however, and his savvy baserunning (37 stolen bases over three collegiate seasons) adds an additional above-average tool.

2023 Performance
Any questions about how Shaw’s hit tool would translate from Maryland (where he owned a max exit velocity north of 113 mph) were quickly allayed when Shaw turned pro, as he clubbed his way through three levels in his 38-game debut.

The Cubs were aggressive in promoting Shaw, after a 20-game stint at High A in which he posted a 1.082 OPS. He barely slowed down in Tennessee, hitting .292/.329/.523 with 8 extra-base hits and 7 stolen bases in just 15 games. Shaw took just 9 walks in 166 plate appearances after turning pro, so his level of aggression in the box will be important to monitor as he faces increasingly strong pitching.

Expectations for 2024
Shaw’s chase rate might catch up to him with an extended look at Double-A pitching. Nonetheless, it’s a high-floor bat that should balance hit and power to provide strong offensive production somewhere on the dirt. 

Between Shaw’s production for the Terps in 2023, winning the Cape Cod batting championship, and his start in pro ball, the Cubs couldn’t have asked for a better outcome (thus far) from their limited combination of picks and bonus pool money. Shaw offers a Brian Dozier Lite type of profile, and will likely be knocking on the door of top 100 prospect lists (or of the Cubs' clubhouse at Wrigley Field) this spring and summer.

What are your expectations for Shaw in 2024? How would you like to see him used, and does his potential affect how you view the Cubs' inactivity in free agency? Join the conversation in the comments.

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