Article: The Third 54 Report: Cubs Drop Another Winnable Contest

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs fell to the Reds on Monday night, opening up their road schedule for 2023 by falling to 1-3 overall. It was one of those games that could tilt either way, and losing it was another tough pill to swallow.

If it’s true that every team will win 54 games and lose 54, and that seasons hinge on the 54 games that could break either way, it’s tempting to conclude that we need not worry much about the games that belong to those first two buckets. In one sense, that’s true. That the Cubs lost Sunday doesn’t need to bother Cubs fans much. That game never had the feeling of one the team was going to win. The Brewers’ batted balls started finding grass early, and they didn’t stop until the thing was well out of hand.

In MLB, though, no game exists outside the world of its fellows. Often, something subtle in one game can lead to something more apparent in the next one. Jameson Taillon, the Cubs’ new starter and $68-million winter investment, didn’t have his best stuff or his most crisp command Sunday. Manager Davis Ross spotted that, and he lifted Taillon after 63 pitches and four innings of work. He was trying to keep the rubber game of the series close, and not to let Taillon’s first game in a Cubs uniform get ugly. 

It didn’t work, but that’s not the biggest problem with it. Rather, the biggest problem is that Ross emptied his bullpen in an obviously ill-conceived effort to hold onto a game, rather than trusting a man who pitched 175 innings last year and has a quintet of pitches to give him another three or four outs, even if they involved some adversity. Three games into the season, and despite six-inning outings from both Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele to open things up, Ross manufactured scarcity of fresh relievers. 

The right play that day was to leave Taillon in, to further develop a rapport with Yan Gomes under battle conditions, and to test out some strategies for getting through the third encounter with the opposing lineup on days when he just doesn’t have it. Too many modern managers use a quick hook on pitchers who give up a few runs the first two times through the order to put their team behind in the game. The right time to use a quick hook because of the times-through-the-order penalty is when a team has a thin lead in the middle innings, rather than when they face a deficit.

Every such instance is an important decision, too. I don’t think Ross had any real capacity to change how Sunday’s game turned out by stretching Taillon for another inning or two, but I wanted him to do so precisely because of the possibility that what happened Monday night would happen. Drew Smyly didn’t have it in Cincinnati, and couldn’t hold either of the leads the offense gave him. In the fifth frame, the Cubs had a narrow lead, and Smyly was facing the bottom of the Reds order a third time. 

That was the moment to use the quick, aggressive hook, but Mark Leiter, Jr., Julian Merryweather, Michael Rucker, and Adbert Alzolay had each thrown between 22 and 30 pitches Sunday. That shortened Ross’s bullpen and made him slow to pull the trigger on lifting Smyly for Keegan Thompson. Before he could do so, Smyly gave up what turned out to be the game-winning three-run home run.

Jason Vosler (2)

Regular Season
3 Run Home Run 3️⃣
04/03/2023
Opponent: Chicago Cubs pic.twitter.com/EOPvZp7Sza

— Reds Home Runs (@CIN__HR) April 4, 2023

That wasn’t the only problem on display Monday night, and it wasn’t the only thing that stopped the team from winning a winnable game. Defense in right field, for instance, continues to be a massive deficiency for this team, and Trey Mancini missed one catchable ball and allowed 90 extra feet on another hit in this one. We need to have a separate, fuller conversation about Eric Hosmer, and especially about his defense, very soon. The decision to have Patrick Wisdom attempt a bunt in the top of the seventh inning was downright bizarre. Mostly, though, Monday night’s loss was a painful reminder that you can’t completely flush every loss. Some mistakes carry over, and things that happen in games that feel inconsequential can cost you ones that matter.

Third 54 Record: 0-2

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't understand why the right call when Taillon has 4 ineffective innings is to leave him in to work it out, but when Smyly has 4 ineffective innings the right call is to yank him.  This goes doubly so given the context. Taillon's 4th inning was his worst yet, giving up 2 singles, a triple, and a sharp lineout(105 EV, .640 xBA), and 2-3-4 were due to face him for the 3rd time.  This stands in contrast to Smyly, who while he had given up 4 runs, had given up only one bit of hard contact in the previous 2 innings, and was ultimately undone by a favorable matchup(bad LHH who didn't start and had K'd in his first AB).  Yes the game state is slightly different with the one run lead v. deficit, but with 5 innings to go in both cases and no sign that runs will be particularly hard to come by(like Saturday's game), I can't get on board that it swings the decision to the other end, especially with the nuances above included.